Advertisement

International Journal of Legal Medicine

, Volume 132, Issue 3, pp 791–798 | Cite as

The role of multislice computed tomography of the costal cartilage in adult age estimation

  • Kui Zhang
  • Fei Fan
  • Meng Tu
  • Jing-hui Cui
  • Jing-song Li
  • Zhao Peng
  • Zhen-hua Deng
Original Article

Abstract

To establish population-specific age estimation models in adults from costal cartilage for contemporary Chinese by using three-dimensional volume-rendering technique. Five hundred and twelve individuals (254 females and 258 males) with documented ages between 20 and 85 years were retrospectively included. Their clinical CT examinations (1 mm slice thickness) were used to develop the sex-specific age prediction model. A validation sample comprising 26 female and 24 male individuals was then used to test the predictive accuracy of the established models. Simple linear regression (SLR), multiple linear regression (MLR), gradient boosting regression (GBR), support vector machine (SVM), and decision tree regression (DTR) were utilized to build the age diagnosis models from calibration samples. By comparison, the decision tree regression was the relatively more accurate age prediction model for male, with mean absolute error = 5.31 years, least absolute error = 0.10 years, correct percentage within 5 years = 54%, and the correct percentage within 10 years = 88%. The stepwise multiple linear regression equations was the relatively more accurate one for female, with mean absolute error = 6.72 years, least absolute error = 0.68 years, correct percentage within 5 years = 42%, and correct percentage within 10 years = 77%. Our results indicated that the present established age estimation model can be applied as an additional guidance for age estimation in adults.

Keywords

Costal cartilage Adult Age estimation Simple linear regression Multiple linear regression Gradient boosting regression Support vector machine Decision tree regression 

Notes

Acknowledgements

This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 81373252), the Applied Basic Research Programs of Science and Technology Commission Foundation of Sichuan Province (No. 2013JY0148), and the Opening Project of Key laboratory of Evidence Science (China University of Political Science and Law), Ministry of Education (No. 2016KFKT04).

Compliance with ethical standards

Conflict of interest

The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest.

References

  1. 1.
    Zapico SC, Ubelaker DH (2013) Applications of physiological bases of ageing to forensic sciences. Estimation of age-at-death. Ageing Res Rev 12(2):605–617. doi: 10.1016/j.arr.2013.02.002 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  2. 2.
    Schmeling A, Grundmann C, Fuhrmann A, Kaatsch HJ, Knell B, Ramsthaler F, Reisinger W, Riepert T, Ritz-Timme S, Rosing FW, Rotzscher K, Geserick G (2008) Criteria for age estimation in living individuals. Int J Legal Med 122(6):457–460. doi: 10.1007/s00414-008-0254-2 CrossRefPubMedGoogle Scholar
  3. 3.
    Kanchan T, Krishan K, Kumar GP (2013) Squamous suture—a rare case of asymmetrical closure with review of literature. Forensic Sci Int 231(1-3):410 e411–410 e413. doi: 10.1016/j.forsciint.2013.04.031 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  4. 4.
    Franklin D (2010) Forensic age estimation in human skeletal remains: current concepts and future directions. Leg Med (Tokyo) 12(1):1–7. doi: 10.1016/j.legalmed.2009.09.001 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  5. 5.
    Ubelaker DH, Parra RC (2008) Application of three dental methods of adult age estimation from intact single rooted teeth to a Peruvian sample. J Forensic Sci 53(3):608–611. doi: 10.1111/j.1556-4029.2008.00699.x CrossRefPubMedGoogle Scholar
  6. 6.
    Xu X, Philipsen HP, Jablonski NG, Pang KM, Zhu J (1992) Age estimation from the structure of adult human teeth: review of the literature. Forensic Sci Int 54(1):23–28CrossRefPubMedGoogle Scholar
  7. 7.
    Xu XH, Philipsen HP, Jablonski NG, Weatherhead B, Pang KM, Zhu JZ (1991) Preliminary report on a new method of human age estimation from single adult teeth. Forensic Sci Int 51(2):281–288CrossRefPubMedGoogle Scholar
  8. 8.
    Burns KR, Maples WR (1976) Estimation of age from individual adult teeth. J Forensic Sci 21(2):343–356CrossRefPubMedGoogle Scholar
  9. 9.
    Sinthubua A, Theera-Umpon N, Auephanwiriyakul S, Ruengdit S, Das S, Mahakkanukrauh P (2016) New method of age estimation from maxillary sutures closure in a Thai population. La Clinica terapeutica 167(2):33–37. doi: 10.7417/CT.2016.1918 PubMedGoogle Scholar
  10. 10.
    Akhlaghi M, Taghaddosinejad F, Sheikhazadi A, Valizadeh B, Shojaei SM (2010) Age-at-death estimation based on the macroscopic examination of spheno-occipital sutures. J Forensic Legal Med 17(6):304–308. doi: 10.1016/j.jflm.2010.04.009 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  11. 11.
    Dorandeu A, Coulibaly B, Piercecchi-Marti MD, Bartoli C, Gaudart J, Baccino E, Leonetti G (2008) Age-at-death estimation based on the study of frontosphenoidal sutures. Forensic Sci Int 177(1):47–51. doi: 10.1016/j.forsciint.2007.10.012 CrossRefPubMedGoogle Scholar
  12. 12.
    Botha D, Pretorius S, Myburgh J, Steyn M (2016) Age estimation from the acetabulum in south African black males. Int J Legal Med 130(3):809–817. doi: 10.1007/s00414-015-1299-7 CrossRefPubMedGoogle Scholar
  13. 13.
    Calce SE, Rogers TL (2011) Evaluation of age estimation technique: testing traits of the acetabulum to estimate age at death in adult males. J Forensic Sci 56(2):302–311. doi: 10.1111/j.1556-4029.2011.01700.x CrossRefPubMedGoogle Scholar
  14. 14.
    Rissech C, Estabrook GF, Cunha E, Malgosa A (2007) Estimation of age-at-death for adult males using the acetabulum, applied to four western European populations. J Forensic Sci 52(4):774–778. doi: 10.1111/j.1556-4029.2007.00486.x CrossRefPubMedGoogle Scholar
  15. 15.
    Verzeletti A, Terlisio M, De Ferrari F (2013) Age-at-death estimation in Caucasian females from the morphological analysis of the sternal end of the fourth rib. Leg Med (Tokyo) 15(1):47–49. doi: 10.1016/j.legalmed.2012.07.002 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  16. 16.
    Macaluso PJ Jr, Lucena J (2012) Test of a new components method for age-at-death estimation from the medial end of the fourth rib using a modern Spanish sample. Int J Legal Med 126(5):773–779. doi: 10.1007/s00414-012-0735-1 CrossRefPubMedGoogle Scholar
  17. 17.
    Garamendi PM, Landa MI, Botella MC, Aleman I (2011) Forensic age estimation on digital X-ray images: medial epiphyses of the clavicle and first rib ossification in relation to chronological age. J Forensic Sci 56(Suppl 1):S3–12. doi: 10.1111/j.1556-4029.2010.01626.x CrossRefPubMedGoogle Scholar
  18. 18.
    Kim YS, Kim DI, Park DK, Lee JH, Chung NE, Lee WT, Han SH (2007) Assessment of histomorphological features of the sternal end of the fourth rib for age estimation in Koreans. J Forensic Sci 52(6):1237–1242. doi: 10.1111/j.1556-4029.2007.00566.x CrossRefPubMedGoogle Scholar
  19. 19.
    Kunos CA, Simpson SW, Russell KF, Hershkovitz I (1999) First rib metamorphosis: its possible utility for human age-at-death estimation. Am J Phys Anthropol 110(3):303–323. doi: 10.1002/(SICI)1096-8644(199911)110:3<303::AID-AJPA4>3.0.CO;2-O CrossRefPubMedGoogle Scholar
  20. 20.
    Martrille L, Ubelaker DH, Cattaneo C, Seguret F, Tremblay M, Baccino E (2007) Comparison of four skeletal methods for the estimation of age at death on white and black adults. J Forensic Sci 52(2):302–307. doi: 10.1111/j.1556-4029.2006.00367.x CrossRefPubMedGoogle Scholar
  21. 21.
    Haj Salem N, Aissaoui A, Mesrati MA, Belhadj M, Quatrehomme G, Chadly A (2014) Age estimation from the sternal end of the fourth rib: a study of the validity of Iscan’s method in Tunisian male population. Leg Med (Tokyo) 16(6):385–389. doi: 10.1016/j.legalmed.2014.06.007 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  22. 22.
    Iscan MY, Loth SR, Wright RK (1984) Metamorphosis at the sternal rib end: a new method to estimate age at death in white males. Am J Phys Anthropol 65(2):147–156. doi: 10.1002/ajpa.1330650206 CrossRefPubMedGoogle Scholar
  23. 23.
    Iscan MY, Loth SR, Wright RK (1985) Age estimation from the rib by phase analysis: white females. J Forensic Sci 30(3):853–863PubMedGoogle Scholar
  24. 24.
    Iscan MY, Loth SR, Wright RK (1984) Age estimation from the rib by phase analysis: white males. J Forensic Sci 29(4):1094–1104PubMedGoogle Scholar
  25. 25.
    Hartnett KM (2010) Analysis of age-at-death estimation using data from a new, modern autopsy sample—part II: sternal end of the fourth rib. J Forensic Sci 55(5):1152–1156. doi: 10.1111/j.1556-4029.2010.01415.x CrossRefPubMedGoogle Scholar
  26. 26.
    Dedouit F, Bindel S, Gainza D, Blanc A, Joffre F, Rouge D, Telmon N (2008) Application of the Iscan method to two- and three-dimensional imaging of the sternal end of the right fourth rib. J Forensic Sci 53(2):288–295. doi: 10.1111/j.1556-4029.2007.00642.x CrossRefPubMedGoogle Scholar
  27. 27.
    Milenkovic P, Djuric M, Milovanovic P, Djukic K, Zivkovic V, Nikolic S (2014) The role of CT analyses of the sternal end of the clavicle and the first costal cartilage in age estimation. Int J Legal Med 128(5):825–839. doi: 10.1007/s00414-014-1026-9 CrossRefPubMedGoogle Scholar
  28. 28.
    Moskovitch G, Dedouit F, Braga J, Rouge D, Rousseau H, Telmon N (2010) Multislice computed tomography of the first rib: a useful technique for bone age assessment. J Forensic Sci 55(4):865–870. doi: 10.1111/j.1556-4029.2010.01390.x CrossRefPubMedGoogle Scholar
  29. 29.
    Mason L, Baxter O, Bartlett P, Frean M (2000) Boosting algorithms as gradient descent. Adv Neural Inf Proces Syst 12(12):512–518Google Scholar
  30. 30.
    Ben-Hur A, Horn D, Siegelmann HT, Vapnik V (2001) A support vector method for clustering. Adv Neural Inf Proces Syst 13:367–373Google Scholar
  31. 31.
    Holzinger A (2015) Data mining with decision trees: theory and applications. Online Inf Rev 39(3):437–438. doi: 10.1108/Oir-04-2015-0121 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  32. 32.
    Michelson N (1934) The calcification of the first costal cartilage among whites and negroes. Hum Biol 6:543–557Google Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany 2017

Authors and Affiliations

  • Kui Zhang
    • 1
  • Fei Fan
    • 1
  • Meng Tu
    • 1
  • Jing-hui Cui
    • 1
  • Jing-song Li
    • 2
  • Zhao Peng
    • 2
  • Zhen-hua Deng
    • 1
    • 3
  1. 1.Department of Forensic Pathology, West China School of Basic Medical Sciences & Forensic MedicineSichuan UniversityChengduPeople’s Republic of China
  2. 2.Department of Radiology, West China HospitalSichuan UniversityChengduPeople’s Republic of China
  3. 3.Key Laboratory of Evidence Science, Ministry of Education(China University of Political Science and Law)BeijingChina

Personalised recommendations