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Future changes in the wintertime cyclonic activity over the CORDEX-CORE southern hemisphere domains in a multi-model approach

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Abstract

Changes in the characteristics of austral winter (June–July–August) synoptic activity in three domains (Africa, Australia and South America) of the extratropical Southern Hemisphere projected with the Regional Climate Model version 4 (RegCM4) are presented. The model is nested in three global climate models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5. The model grid spacing is 25 km and the simulations cover the period 1970–2100. Synoptic activity is analyzed using both Eulerian and Lagrangian approaches. The Eulerian analysis shows an increase of the synoptic activity south of 40° S in the RegCM4 and GCMs ensembles for the future (2080–2099) compared to the present (1995–2014), but this signal does not necessarily indicate an increase in the cyclone frequency since it includes cyclonic and anticyclonic features. The Lagrangian analysis, however, indicates a decrease in the frequency of cyclones, with a positive tendency towards stronger systems, although the latter is not statistically significant at 95% confidence level. Lifetime, traveled distance and mean speed of the cyclones do not present statistically significant changes in the future climate. On the other hand, a significant increase in both intensity and extension of areas affected by precipitation associated with cyclones is found. As a consequence, there is a statistically significant trend of individual cyclones to produce more rainfall in the future.

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Acknowledgements

The authors thank CMIP5, ECMWF and GPCP for the data used in this study and ICTP and the National Council for Scientific and Technological Development (CNPq—Brazil) for financial support. M. Reale has been supported in this work by OGS and CINECA under HPC-TRES award number 2015-07 and by the project FAIRSEA (Fisheries in the Adriatic Region—a Shared Ecosystem. Approach) funded by the 2014–2020 Interreg V‐A Italy—Croatia CBC Programme (Standard project ID 10046951). Special thanks for Talina Sines and Francesca Raffaele, who ran the projections from the domains used in this study.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Federal University of Itajubá, UNIFEI, Itajubá, MG, Brazil

    Michelle Simões Reboita

  2. Earth System Physics, ESP, The Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physiscs, Trieste, Italy

    Michelle Simões Reboita, Marco Reale, Filippo Giorgi, Graziano Giuliani, Erika Coppola & Jose Abraham Torres

  3. Istituto Nazionale di Oceanografia e Geofisica Sperimentale OGS, 34151, Trieste, Italy

    Marco Reale

  4. Departamento de Ciências Atmosféricas, Universidade de São Paulo, USP, São Paulo, Brazil

    Rosmeri P. da Rocha

  5. Department of Physical Oceanography, Ensenada Center for Scientific Research and Higher Education, CICESE, Ensenada, Mexico

    Rosa Beatriz Luna Nino & Tereza Cavazos

  6. Universidade Estadual Paulista, UNESP, Bauru, SP, Brazil

    Marta Llopart

  7. Centro de Meteorologia de Bauru, IPMet, Bauru, SP, Brazil

    Marta Llopart

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Reboita, M.S., Reale, M., da Rocha, R.P. et al. Future changes in the wintertime cyclonic activity over the CORDEX-CORE southern hemisphere domains in a multi-model approach. Clim Dyn 57, 1533–1549 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05317-z

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