Future projections of Indian Summer Monsoon under multiple RCPs using a high resolution global climate model multiforcing ensemble simulations

Factors contributing to future ISMR changes due to global warming
  • Stella Jes VargheseEmail author
  • Sajani Surendran
  • Kavirajan Rajendran
  • Akio Kitoh


Present-day simulations (1983–2003) of a global climate model of 60-km resolution with three deep convection schemes are analysed to find the best scheme for simulation of mean Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) and its variability. Multiforcing ensemble projections with the best scheme are carried out under multiple Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) (based on various socio-economic and technological development at the end of the century), viz. RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5, forced with four patterns of future sea surface temperature (SST) change for each scenario; one with mean SST changes projected by 28 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase-5 (CMIP5) models and the rest obtained from subgroups of CMIP5 models grouped through cluster analysis of tropical SST changes. These are analysed for future (2079–2099) changes in surface air temperature (\(\hbox {T}_{s}\)) and rainfall which show overall increase over India except for rainfall reduction over Western Ghats. We find that combination of enhanced atmospheric water vapour content and increased vertically integrated low level moisture transport into the subcontinent as the major contributing factors for future intensification of ISMR. Extreme events show increase in warm days with significant increase in warm nights. Percentage of grid points showing increased extreme rainfall increases from low to high emission scenario. The high-resolution model enables to study projected changes over India at homogeneous zones level. The maximum increase in \(\hbox {T}_{s}\) and rainfall occurs over Western Himalaya and Northeast hilly region respectively. Consistent with future increase in \(\hbox {T}_{s}\) and rainfall, their extreme events also increase over all the homogeneous zones.


ISMR Ensemble simulations Climate projections Representative concentration pathways Extreme events 



The simulations were done by the Earth Simulator of JAMSTEC, under the SOUSEI and TOUGOU Programs funded by MEXT, Japan. The first author acknowledges the financial support of Council of Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR) for the Senior Research Fellowship (SRF) and AcSIR. The authors acknowledge India Meteorological Department (IMD) for the high resolution (\(0.25^{\circ } \times 0.25^{\circ }\)) gridded rainfall data sets over India. The authors also acknowledge the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) and the WCRP’s Working Group on Coupled Modeling and CMIP5 modeling groups for making available the simulations. The authors acknowledge CSIR-4PI for their HPC support. A part of this work was also supported by NCAP project of MoEFCC, Govt. of India (GAP-1009) and MoES National Monsoon Mission Phase II project (GAP-1013). The authors are thankful to the two anonymous reviewers for their valuable comments which helped in significantly improving the quality of this manuscript.

Supplementary material

382_2019_5059_MOESM1_ESM.docx (27.8 mb)
Supplementary material 1 (docx 28,448 KB)


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Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2019

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Multi-Scale Modelling ProgrammeCSIR Fourth Paradigm InstituteBangaloreIndia
  2. 2.Academy of Scientific and Innovative Research (AcSIR)GhaziabadIndia
  3. 3.Japan Meteorological Business Support CenterTsukubaJapan

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