Advertisement

Response of the anomalous western North Pacific anticyclone during El Niño mature winter to global warming

  • Yuhao Wang
  • Chao HeEmail author
  • Tim Li
Article
First Online:
  • 58 Downloads

Abstract

The western North Pacific subtropical anticyclone (WNPAC) usually fully develops during El Niño mature winter, and it is a key system connecting East Asian climate to ENSO. Based on a comparison between the RCP8.5 and the historical experiment of 30 coupled models from the CMIP5, we find that the response of the intensity in the anomalous WNPAC during El Niño mature winter remains almost unchanged under global warming. Taken the anomalous WNPAC as a two-step response to the diabatic heating anomaly over the equatorial central-eastern Pacific, numerical experiments based on GFDL_dry model and diagnoses are performed to explore the underlying mechanisms. The results demonstrate that the competition between the enhanced diabatic heating anomaly over the equatorial central-eastern Pacific and the enhanced mean state static stability results in a weakly enhanced low-level northeasterly wind anomaly over the WNP. Under an enhanced negative meridional gradient of the mean state low-level specific humidity, the negative moist enthalpy advection anomaly is enhanced over the WNP, which favors the enhanced negative precipitation anomaly. The negative precipitation anomaly over the WNP is thus enhanced due to atmospheric internal processes rather than the changed local SST anomaly. Finally, the competition between the enhanced local diabatic heating anomaly over the WNP and the enhanced mean state static stability results in an almost unchanged anomalous WNPAC.

Keywords

Global warming El Niño Western North Pacific anticyclone Diabatic heating anomaly Mean state static stability Moist enthalpy advection 
This is a preview of subscription content, log in to check access.

Notes

Acknowledgements

The authors wish to acknowledge all the modeling groups for providing the model outputs. This work was supported by China National Key R&D Program (2017YFA0603802), National Natural Science Foundation of China (41630423, 41875069, and 41875081), NSF Grant AGS-1643297, and NOAA grant NA18OAR4310298. This is SOEST contribution number 10835, IPRC contribution number 1410, and ESMC contribution number 283.

References

  1. Cai W et al (2014) Increasing frequency of extreme El Niño events due to greenhouse warming. Nat Clim Change 4:111CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  2. Chen TC, Yen MC, Huang WR, Gallus WA (2001) An East Asian cold surge: case study. Mon Weather Rev 130:2271–2290CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  3. Chiang JC, Sobel AH (2002) Tropical tropospheric temperature variations caused by ENSO and their influence on the remote tropical climate. J Clim 15:2616–2631CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  4. Chung CT, Power SB (2016) Modelled impact of global warming on ENSO-driven precipitation changes in the tropical Pacific. Clim Dyn 47:1303–1323CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  5. Collins M et al (2018) Challenges and opportunities for improved understanding of regional climate dynamics. Nat Clim Change 8:101–108CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  6. Feng J, Wang L, Chen W (2014) How does the East Asian summer monsoon behave in the decaying phase of El Niño during different PDO phases? J Clim 27:2682–2698CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  7. Gleckler PJ, Taylor KE, Doutriaux C (2008) Performance metrics for climate models. J Geophys Res Atmos 113:D06104CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  8. He C, Li T (2019) Does global warming amplify interannual climate variability? Clim Dyn 52:2667–2684CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  9. He C, Zhou T (2015) Responses of the Western North Pacific subtropical high to global warming under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios projected by 33 CMIP5 models: the dominance of tropical Indian Ocean-Tropical Western Pacific SST gradient. J Clim 28:365–380CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  10. He C, Lin A, Gu D, Li C, Zheng B, Wu B, Zhou T (2018) Using eddy geopotential height to measure the western North Pacific subtropical high in a warming climate. Theor Appl Climatol 131:1–11CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  11. He C, Liu R, Wang X, Liu SC, Zhou T, Liao W (2019a) How does El Niño-Southern Oscillation modulate the interannual variability of winter haze days over eastern China? Sci Total Environ 651:1892–1902CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  12. He C, Zhou T, Li T (2019b) Weakened anomalous western North Pacific anticyclone during El Niño decaying summer under a warmer climate: dominant role of the weakened impact of tropical Indian Ocean on the atmosphere. J Clim 32:213–230CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  13. Held IM, Soden BJ (2006) Robust responses of the hydrological cycle to global warming. J Clim 19:5686–5699CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  14. Held IM, Suarez MJ (1994) A proposal for the intercomparison of the dynamical cores of atmospheric general circulation models. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 75:1825–1830CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  15. Huang P, Chen D, Ying J (2017) Weakening of the tropical atmospheric circulation response to local sea surface temperature anomalies under global warming. J Clim 30:8149–8158CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  16. Jiang X-A, Li T (2005) Reinitiation of the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation in the tropical Indian Ocean. J Clim 18:3777–3795CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  17. Jiang W, Huang G, Huang P, Hu K (2018) Weakening of Northwest Pacific anticyclone anomalies during Post–El Niño summers under global warming. J Clim 31:3539–3555CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  18. Knutson TR, Manabe S (1995) Time-mean response over the tropical Pacific to increased CO2 in a coupled ocean–atmosphere model. J Clim 8:2181–2199CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  19. Leung MY-T, Cheung HH, Zhou W (2017) Meridional displacement of the East Asian trough and its response to the ENSO forcing. Clim Dyn 48:335–352CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  20. Li T (2006) Origin of the summertime synoptic-scale wave train in the western North Pacific. J Atmos Sci 63:1093–1102CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  21. Li S, Lu J, Huang G, Hu K (2008) Tropical Indian Ocean basin warming and East Asian summer monsoon: a multiple AGCM study. J Clim 21:6080–6088CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  22. Li S, Han Z, Chen H (2017a) A comparison of the effects of interannual Arctic sea ice loss and ENSO on winter haze days: observational analyses and AGCM simulations. J Meteorol Res 31:820–833CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  23. Li T, Wang B, Wu B, Zhou T, Chang C-P, Zhang R (2017b) Theories on formation of an anomalous anticyclone in western North Pacific during El Niño: a review. J Meteorol Res 31:987–1006CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  24. Power S, Delage F, Chung C, Kociuba G, Keay K (2013) Robust twenty-first-century projections of El Niño and related precipitation variability. Nature 502:541CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  25. Schneider T, O’Gorman PA, Levine XJ (2010) Water vapor and the dynamics of climate changes. Rev Geophys 48:RG3001CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  26. Song F, Zhou T (2015) The crucial role of internal variability in modulating the decadal variation of the East Asian summer monsoon–ENSO relationship during the twentieth century. J Clim 28:7093–7107CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  27. Tao W, Huang G, Hu K, Qu X, Wen G, Gong H (2015) Interdecadal modulation of ENSO teleconnections to the Indian Ocean Basin Mode and their relationship under global warming in CMIP5 models. Int J Climatol 35:391–407CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  28. Taylor KE, Stouffer RJ, Meehl GA (2012) An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 93:485–498CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  29. Vecchi GA, Clement A, Soden BJ (2008) Examining the tropical Pacific’s response to global warming EOS. Trans Am Geophys Union 89:81–83CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  30. Wang B, Wu R, Fu X (2000) Pacific-East Asian teleconnection: how does ENSO affect East Asian climate? J Clim 13:1517–1536CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  31. Wang B, Wu R, Li T (2003) Atmosphere–warm ocean interaction and its impacts on Asian–Australian monsoon variation. J Clim 16:1195–1211CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  32. Wang B, Yang J, Zhou T, Wang B (2008a) Interdecadal changes in the major modes of Asian–Australian monsoon variability: strengthening relationship with ENSO since the late 1970s. J Clim 21:1771–1789CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  33. Wang L, Chen W, Huang R (2008b) Interdecadal modulation of PDO on the impact of ENSO on the East Asian winter monsoon. Geophys Res Lett 35:L20702CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  34. Wang L, Gao G, Zhang Q, Sun J, Wang Z, Zhang Y, Zhao S, Chen X, Chen Y, Wang Y, Chen L, Gao H (2008c) Analysis of the severe cold surge, ice-snow and frozen disasters in South China during January 2008: I. Climatic features and its impact. Meteorol Mon 34:95–100Google Scholar
  35. Wu B, Li T, Zhou T (2010) Relative contributions of the Indian Ocean and local SST anomalies to the maintenance of the western North Pacific anomalous anticyclone during the El Niño decaying summer. J Clim 23:2974–2986CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  36. Wu B, Zhou T, Li T (2017a) Atmospheric dynamic and thermodynamic processes driving the western North Pacific anomalous anticyclone during El Niño. Part I: Maintenance mechanisms. J Clim 30:9621–9635CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  37. Wu B, Zhou T, Li T (2017b) Atmospheric dynamic and thermodynamic processes driving the western North Pacific anomalous anticyclone during El Niño. Part II: Formation processes. J Clim 30:9637–9650CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  38. Xiang B, Wang B, Yu W, Xu S (2013) How can anomalous western North Pacific subtropical high intensify in late summer? Geophys Res Lett 40:2349–2354CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  39. Xie S-P, Philander SGH (1994) A coupled ocean–atmosphere model of relevance to the ITCZ in the eastern Pacific. Tellus A 46:340–350CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  40. Xie S-P, Hu K, Hafner J, Tokinaga H, Du Y, Huang G, Sampe T (2009) Indian Ocean capacitor effect on Indo–western Pacific climate during the summer following El Niño. J Clim 22:730–747CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  41. Xie S-P et al (2015) Towards predictive understanding of regional climate change. Nat Clim Change 5:921CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  42. Xin X, Yu R, Zhou T, Wang B (2006) Drought in late spring of South China in recent decades. J Clim 19:3197–3206CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  43. Yanai M, Tomita T (1998) Seasonal and interannual variability of atmospheric heat sources and moisture sinks as determined from NCEP–NCAR reanalysis. J Clim 11:463–482CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  44. Zhang L, Li T (2014) A simple analytical model for understanding the formation of sea surface temperature patterns under global warming. J Clim 27:8413–8421CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  45. Zhang R, Sumi A, Kimoto M (1996) Impact of El Niño on the East Asian monsoon. J Meteorol Soc Jpn Ser II(74):49–62CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  46. Zhang R, Min Q, Su J (2017) Impact of El Niño on atmospheric circulations over East Asia and rainfall in China: role of the anomalous western North Pacific anticyclone. Sci China Earth Sci 60:1124–1132CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  47. Zhao S, Zhang H, Xie B (2018) The effects of El Niño-Southern Oscillation on the winter haze pollution of China. Atmos Chem Phys 18:1863CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  48. Zhou LT, Wu R (2010) Respective impacts of the East Asian winter monsoon and ENSO on winter rainfall in China. J Geophys Res Atmos 115:D02107Google Scholar
  49. Zong Y, Chen X (2000) The 1998 flood on the Yangtze, China. Nat Hazards 22:165–184CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2019

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education (KLME)/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environmental Change (ILCEC)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast of Meteorological Disasters (CIC-FEMD)Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjingChina
  2. 2.Institute for Environmental and Climate ResearchJinan UniversityGuangzhouChina
  3. 3.International Pacific Research Center and Department of Atmospheric Sciences, School of Ocean and Earth Science and TechnologyUniversity of HawaiiHonoluluUSA

Personalised recommendations

Cite article

Buy options