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Seasonal precipitation change in the Western North Pacific and East Asia under global warming in two high-resolution AGCMs

  • Chao-An Chen
  • Huang-Hsiung HsuEmail author
  • Chi-Cherng Hong
  • Ping-Gin Chiu
  • Chia-Ying Tu
  • Shian-Jiann Lin
  • Akio Kitoh
Article

Abstract

To estimate seasonal precipitation change over the western North Pacific and East Asia region (WNP-EA), we use high-resolution atmospheric Model (HiRAM) (50 km resolution) to conduct a series of simulations forced by Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario with the fifth phases of the Coupled Model Intercomparison project (CMIP5) ensemble sea surface temperature (SST) changes (RCP_Ens). The sensitivity of future projections to various SST forcing (\( {\text{SST}}_{\text{spa}}^{{\prime }} \)) is also assessed. We also assess the sensitivity associated with model dependence by comparing with the results of the Meteorological Research Institute-Atmospheric General Circulation Model (MRI-AGCM3.2S) projections. The major findings are: (1) weakened atmospheric circulation in all seasons in RCP_Ens experiment; (2) more precipitation over most of the northern East Asian continent and the northern WNP oceanic region in all seasons; (3) an anomalous anticyclonic circulation (AAC) together with decreased precipitation over the oceanic WNP-EA in the typhoon season; and (4) largest sensitivity to various \( {\text{SST}}_{\text{spa}}^{{\prime }} \) in spring comparing with other seasons. The aforementioned changes are similarly seen in both the HiRAM and MRI-AGCM3.2S, suggesting the reliability of our findings. The moisture budget indicates the dominance of dynamic contribution to the reduced precipitation. By contrast, the increased precipitation may be associated with various processes such as enhanced upward motion, increased water vapor or surface evaporation.

Keywords

Precipitation change The western North Pacific and East Asia High-resolution atmospheric model Global warming 

Notes

Acknowledgments

We thank three anonymous reviewers whose comments improved this paper. We thank the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) and the WCRP’s Working Group on Coupled Modelling (WGCM), for collecting and archiving the AMIP-type simulations of WCRP CMIP5 multimodel datasets for analysis. We thank the climate modeling groups (listed in Table 2) for producing and making available their model outputs. All of the model datasets are available at https://esgf-node.llnl.gov/projects/cmip5/. We also thank the Meteorological Research Institute for providing dataset simulated from MRI_AGCM3.2S. This work was supported by Academia Sinica and the Ministry of Science and Technology (MOST) of Taiwan under MOST 106-2111-M-001-005 and MOST 107-2119-M-001-010.

Supplementary material

382_2019_4883_MOESM1_ESM.docx (2.5 mb)
Supplementary material 1 (DOCX 2525 kb)

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Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2019

Authors and Affiliations

  • Chao-An Chen
    • 1
  • Huang-Hsiung Hsu
    • 1
    Email author
  • Chi-Cherng Hong
    • 2
  • Ping-Gin Chiu
    • 3
  • Chia-Ying Tu
    • 1
  • Shian-Jiann Lin
    • 4
  • Akio Kitoh
    • 5
    • 6
  1. 1.Research Center for Environmental Changes (RCEC), Academia SinicaNankangTaiwan
  2. 2.Department of Earth and LifeUniversity of TaipeiTaipeiTaiwan
  3. 3.Geophysical InstituteUniversity of BergenBergenNorway
  4. 4.NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics LaboratoryPrincetonUSA
  5. 5.Japan Meteorological Business Support CenterTsukubaJapan
  6. 6.Meteorological Research InstituteTsukubaJapan

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