Advertisement

Precursory signals of East Asian winter cold anomalies in stratospheric planetary wave pattern

  • Lei Song
  • Renguang Wu
Article

Abstract

The impacts of the stratospheric polar vortex changes on the tropospheric climate variability have been emphasized in previous studies. The present study presents evidence for precursory signals of cold anomalies over East Asia in the stratospheric wave pattern during November through March. The leading two empirical orthogonal function (EOF) modes of daily 50-hPa geopotential height anomalies along 65°N correspond to changes in the amplitude and phase of the stratospheric planetary wavenumber 1, respectively. Composite analysis is performed to unravel the temporal evolution of anomalies during 8 phases of 34 events identified based on the second EOF mode with a complete life cycle for the period 1979–2016. The surface cold anomalies over eastern China emerge in phase 3 (corresponding to negative and positive 50-hPa height anomalies on the North Atlantic and Russian Far East sector, respectively) and peak in phase 5 (corresponding to positive 50-hPa height anomalies over Eurasia) when the Siberian high extends southeastward and the East Asian trough deepens with anomalous surface northerly winds. Downward propagation of stratospheric signal is detected over western Europe and western Siberia. The former is a source region of the tropospheric Rossby wave trains propagating along the polar front jet and subtropical jet. The downward propagation of stratospheric signal is related to the reflection of stratospheric planetary wavenumber 1 pattern and contributes to the development of the tropospheric Rossby wave train that, in turn, leads to the strengthening of the Siberian high and the deepening of the East Asian trough.

Keywords

East Asian cold anomalies Precursory signals Stratospheric planetary wave pattern Downward propagation 

Notes

Acknowledgements

This study is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China grants (41705063, 41530425, 41475081, 41661144016, 41775080, and 41275081). The NCEP reanalysis 2 data were obtained from ftp://ftp.cdc.noaa.gov/.

References

  1. Andrews DG, Holton JR, Leovy CB (1987) Middle atmosphere dynamics. Academic Press, CambridgeGoogle Scholar
  2. Baldwin MP, Dunkerton TJ (1998) Biennial, quasi-biennial, and decadal oscillations of potential vorticity in the northern stratosphere. J Geophys Res 103:3919–3928.  https://doi.org/10.1029/97JD02150 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  3. Baldwin MP, Dunkerton TJ (1999) Propagation of the Arctic Oscillation from the stratosphere to the troposphere. J Geophys Res 104:30937–30946CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  4. Baldwin MP, Dunkerton TJ (2001) Stratospheric harbingers of anomalous weather regimes. Science 294:581–584CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  5. Baldwin MP, Stephenson DB, Thompson DWJ, Dunkerton TJ, Charlton AJ, O’Neill A (2003) Stratospheric memory and skill of extended-range weather forecasts. Science 301:636–640CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  6. Bancalá S, Krüger K, Giorgetta M (2012) The preconditioning of major sudden stratospheric warmings. J Geophys Res Atmos 117:D04101.  https://doi.org/10.1029/2011JD016769 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  7. Barriopedro D, Calvo N (2014) On the relationship between ENSO, stratospheric sudden warmings, and blocking. J Clim 27:4704–4720CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  8. Black RX (2002) Stratospheric forcing of surface climate in the Arctic oscillation. J Clim 15:268–277CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  9. Black RX, McDaniel BA (2007) Interannual variability in the southern hemisphere circulation organized by stratospheric final warming events. J Atmos Sci 64:2968–2974CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  10. Cai M, Ren R-C (2007) Meridional and downward propagation of atmospheric circulation anomalies. Part I: Northern hemisphere cold season variability. J Atmos Sci 64:1880–1901CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  11. Charney JG, Drazin PG (1961) Propagation of planetary-scale disturbances from the lower into the upper atmosphere. J Geophys Res 66:83–109CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  12. Chen W, Takahashi M, Graf HF (2003) Interannual variations of stationary planetary wave activity in the northern winter troposphere and stratosphere and their relations to NAM and SST. J Geophy Res Atmos 108:D24.  https://doi.org/10.1029/2003JD003834 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  13. Chen W, Yang S, Huang RH (2005) Relationship between stationary planetary wave activity and the East Asian winter monsoon. J Geophys Res Atmos 110:D14110.  https://doi.org/10.1029/2004JD005669 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  14. Coughlin K, Tung KK (2005) Tropospheric wave response to decelerated stratosphere seen as downward propagation in northern annular mode. J Geophys Res Atmos 110:D01103.  https://doi.org/10.1029/2004JD004661 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  15. Ding Y, Krishnamurti TN (1987) Heat budget of the Siberian high and the winter monsoon. Mon Weather Rev 115:2428–2449CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  16. Harnik N, Lindzen RS (2001) The effect of reflecting surfaces on the vertical structure and variability of stratospheric planetary waves. J Atmos Sci 58:2872–2894CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  17. Jeong J-H, Ho C-H (2005) Changes in occurrence of cold surges over East Asia in association with Arctic Oscillation. Geophys Res Lett 32:L14704.  https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GL023024 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  18. Jeong J-H, Kim B-M, Ho C-H, Chen D, Lim G-H (2006) Stratospheric origin of cold surge occurrence in East Asia. Geophys Res Lett 33:L14710.  https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL026607 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  19. Kanamitsu M, Ebisuzaki W, Woollen J, Yang S-K, Hnilo JJ, Fiorino M, Potter GL (2002) NCEP–DOE AMIP-II reanalysis (R-2). Bull Am Meteorol Soc 83:1631–1643CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  20. Kidston J, Scaife AA, Hardiman SC, Mitchell DM, Butchart N, Baldwin MP, Gray LJ (2015) Stratospheric influence on tropospheric jet streams, storm tracks and surface weather. Nature Geosci 8:433–440CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  21. Kodera K, Yamazaki K, Chiba M, Shibata K (1990) Downward propagation of upper stratospheric mean zonal wind perturbation to the troposphere. Geophys Res Lett 17:1263–1266CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  22. Kodera K, Kuroda Y, Pawson S (2000) Stratospheric sudden warmings and slowly propagating zonal-mean zonal wind anomalies. J Geophys Res Atmos 105:12351–12359CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  23. Kodera K, Mukougawa H, Itoh S (2008) Tropospheric impact of reflected planetary waves from the stratosphere. Geophys Res Lett 35:L16806.  https://doi.org/10.1029/2008GL034575 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  24. Kodera K, Mukougawa H, Fujii A (2013) Influence of the vertical and zonal propagation of stratospheric planetary waves on tropospheric blockings. J Geophys Res Atmos 118:8333–8345.  https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50650 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  25. Kodera K, Mukougawa H, Maury P, Ueda M, Claud C (2016) Absorbing and reflecting sudden stratospheric warming events and their relationship with tropospheric circulation. J Geophys Res Atmos 121:80–94.  https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JD023359 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  26. Kolstad EW, Breiteig T, Scaife AA (2010) The association between stratospheric weak polar vortex events and cold air outbreaks in the Northern Hemisphere. Q J R Meteorol Soc 136:886–893CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  27. Mitchell DM, Gray LJ, Anstey J, Baldwin MP, Charlton-Perez AJ (2013) The influence of stratospheric vortex displacements and splits on surface climate. J Clim 26:2668–2682CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  28. Nath D, Chen W, Zelin C, Pogoreltsev AI, Wei K (2016) Dynamics of 2013 sudden stratospheric warming event and its impact on cold weather over Eurasia: role of planetary wave reflection. Sci Rep 6:24174CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  29. North GR, Bell TL, Cahalan RF, Moeng FJ (1982) Sampling errors in the estimation of empirical orthogonal functions. Mon Weather Rev 110:699–706CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  30. Panagiotopoulos F, Shahgedanova M, Hannachi A, Stephenson DB (2005) Observed trends and teleconnections of the Siberian high: a recently declining center of action. J Clim 18:1411–1422CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  31. Perlwitz J, Graf H-F (2001) Troposphere-stratosphere dynamic coupling under strong and weak polar vortex conditions. Geophys Res Lett 28:271–274CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  32. Perlwitz J, Harnik N (2003) Observational evidence of a stratospheric influence on the troposphere by planetary wave reflection. J Clim 16:3011–3026CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  33. Perlwitz J, Harnik N (2004) Downward coupling between the stratosphere and troposphere: the relative roles of wave and zonal mean processes. J Clim 17:4902–4909CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  34. Plumb RA (1985) On the three-dimensional propagation of stationary waves. J Atmos Sci 42:217–229CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  35. Ren RC, Cai M (2007) Meridional and vertical out-of-phase relationships of temperature anomalies associated with the Northern Annular Mode variability. Geophys Res Lett 34:L07704.  https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL028729 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  36. Scaife AA, James IN (2000) Response of the stratosphere to interannual variability of tropospheric planetary waves. Q J R Meteorol Soc 126:275–297CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  37. Scaife AA, Knight JR, Vallis GK, Folland CK (2005) A stratospheric influence on the winter NAO and North Atlantic surface climate. Geophys Res Lett 32:1–5.  https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GL023226 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  38. Scaife AA, Folland CK, Alexander LV, Moberg A, Knight JR (2008) European climate extremes and the North Atlantic Oscillation. J Clim 21:72–83CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  39. Song L, Wu R (2017) Process for occurrence of strong cold events over Eastern China. J Clim 30:9247–9266CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  40. Song L, Wang L, Chen W, Zhang Y (2016) Intraseasonal variation of the strength of the East Asian trough and its climatic impacts in boreal winter. J Clim 29:2557–2577CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  41. Song L, Wu R, Jiao Y (2018) Relative contributions of synoptic and intraseasonal variations to strong cold events over eastern China. Clim Dyn 50:4619–4634CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  42. Takaya K, Nakamura H (1997) A formulation of a wave—activity flux for stationary Rossby waves on a zonally varying basic flow. Geophys Res Lett 24:2985–2988CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  43. Takaya K, Nakamura H (2001) A formulation of a phase-independent wave-activity flux for stationary and migratory quasigeostrophic eddies on a zonally varying basic flow. J Atmos Sci 58:608–627CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  44. Takaya K, Nakamura H (2013) Interannual variability of the East Asian winter monsoon and related modulations of the planetary waves. J Clim 26:9445–9461CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  45. Thompson DWJ, Wallace JM (1998) The Arctic Oscillation signature in the wintertime geopotential height and temperature fields. Geophys Res Lett 25:1297–1300CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  46. Thompson DWJ, Baldwin MP, Wallace JM (2002) Stratospheric connection to Northern Hemisphere wintertime weather: implications for prediction J Clim 15: 1421–1428CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  47. Tomassini L, Gerber EP, Baldwin MP, Bunzel F, Giorgetta M (2012) The role of stratosphere-troposphere coupling in the occurrence of extreme winter cold spells over northern Europe. J Adv Model Earth Syst 4:M00A03.  https://doi.org/10.1029/2012MS000177 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  48. Wang L, Chen W (2010) Downward Arctic Oscillation signal associated with moderate weak stratospheric polar vortex and the cold December 2009. Geophys Res Lett 37:L09707.  https://doi.org/10.1029/2010GL042659 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  49. Wang L, Huang R, Gu L, Chen W, Kang L (2009) Interdecadal variations of the East Asian winter monsoon and their association with quasi-stationary planetary wave activity. J Clim 22:4860–4872CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  50. Watanabe M (2004) Asian jet waveguide and a downstream extension of the North Atlantic Oscillation. J Clim 17:4674–4691CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  51. Woo S-H, Kim B-M, Kug J-S (2015) Temperature variation over East Asia during the lifecycle of weak stratospheric polar vortex. J Clim 28:5857–5872CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  52. Woollings T, Charlton-Perez A, Ineson S, Marshall AG, Masato G (2010) Associations between stratospheric variability and tropospheric blocking. J Geophys Res Atmos 115:06108.  https://doi.org/10.1029/2009JD012742 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  53. Yu Y-Y, Cai M, Ren R-C, Rao J (2018) A closer look at the relationships between meridional mass circulation pulses in the stratosphere and cold air outbreak patterns in northern hemispheric winter. Clim Dyn.  https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4069-7 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  54. Zhang Y, Sperber KR, Boyle JS (1997) Climatology and interannual variation of the East Asian winter monsoon: results from the 1979–95 NCEP/NCAR reanalysis. Mon Weather Rev 125:2605–2619CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2018

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Center for Monsoon System Research, Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina
  2. 2.State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina

Personalised recommendations