Advertisement

Biases in the Tropical Indian Ocean subsurface temperature variability in a coupled model

  • Rashmi Kakatkar
  • C. GnanaseelanEmail author
  • Jasti S. Chowdary
  • J. S. Deepa
  • Anant Parekh
Article
  • 182 Downloads

Abstract

In this study, the subsurface temperature variability in the Tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) is examined in the Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) coupled model. The observations and reanalysis show a north–south dominant mode of variability in the TIO subsurface temperature during September–November, the season when the dominant east–west surface mode (Indian Ocean Dipole; IOD) peaks. The nature of the north–south dipole in TIO subsurface temperature is successfully captured by CFSv2. The observations however indicate that this subsurface mode, in general, persists for the next two seasons with stronger signals during December–February, whereas such tenacity is not seen in the model, instead rapid decay of the mode is seen in the model. It is found that the misrepresentation of both equatorial surface wind anomalies and associated Ekman transport as well as the Ekman pumping in the model have close association with the early weakening of the mode in CFSv2. The surface easterlies are generally modulated by the presence of twin anticyclones on both sides of the equator. The model captured these anticyclones with weaker than observed intensity and the northern anticyclone is confined over much smaller region than observed. Association of the subsurface mode with El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and IOD is further examined in this study. The anomalously prolonged decay phase of El Niño in CFSv2 is found only during the El Niño, IOD co-occurrence years, which was not reported before. This paves way for addressing an important modeling issue which is common in many coupled climate models including CFSv2. The analysis suggests the possible role of coupled air–sea interaction over the TIO on the El Niño cycle in the Pacific. It is also found that the misrepresentation of subsurface variability in CFSv2 during December–February is closely associated with the rapid decay of El Niño forced TIO warming.

Notes

Acknowledgements

We thank the Director, ESSO-IITM and Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES), Government of India for support. The comments from two anonymous reviewers helped us to improve the manuscript considerably. We thank M. K. Roxy for providing the CFSv2 free run data. ORAS4 data is downloaded from http://apdrc.soest.hawaii.edu/. ERA40 and ERA-Interim data are downloaded from ECMWF website. The ARGO gridded data is available from Asia-Pacific data-research center (APDRC) (http://apdrc.soest.hawaii.edu/projects/argo/).

References

  1. Achuthavarier D, Krishnamurthy V, Kirtman BP, Huang B (2012) Role of Indian Ocean in the ENSO–Indian summer monsoon teleconnection in the NCEP climate forecast system. J Clim 25:2490–2508.  https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00111.1 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  2. Alexander MA, Bladé I, Newman M, Lanzante JR, Lau N-C, Scott JD (2002) The atmospheric bridge: the influence of ENSO teleconnections on air–sea interaction over the global oceans. J Clim 15:2205–2231CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  3. Balmaseda MA, Mogensen K, Weaver AT (2013) Evaluation of the ECMWF ocean reanalysis system ORAS4. Q J R Meteorol Soc 139:1132–1161.  https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2063 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  4. Balmaseda MA, Hernandez F, Storto A, Palmer MD, Alves O, Shi L, Smith GC, Toyoda T, Valdivieso M, Barnier B, Behringer D, Boyer T, Chang Y-S, Chepurin GA, Ferry N, Forget G, Fujii Y, Good S, Guinehut S, Haines K, Ishikawa Y, Keeley S, Köhl A, Lee T, Martin MJ, Masina S, Masuda S, Meyssignac B, Mogensen K, Parent L, Peterson KA, Tang YM, Yin Y, Vernieres G, Wang X, Waters J, Wedd R, Wang O, Xue Y, Chevallier M, Lemieux J-F, Dupont F, Kuragano T, Kamachi M, Awaji T, Caltabiano A, Wilmer-Becker K, Gaillard F (2015) The ocean reanalyses intercomparison project (ORA-IP). J Oper Oceanogr 8(sup1):s80–s97.  https://doi.org/10.1080/1755876X.2015.1022329 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  5. Chakravorty S, Chowdary JS, Gnanaseelan C (2013) Spring asymmetric mode in the tropical Indian Ocean: role of El Niño and IOD. Clim Dyn 40(5–6):1467–1481.  https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1340-1 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  6. Chakravorty S, Gnanaseelan C, Chowdary JS, Luo J-J (2014) Relative role of El Niño and IOD forcing on the southern tropical Indian Ocean Rossby waves. J Geophys Res.  https://doi.org/10.1002/2013JC009713 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  7. Chambers DP, Tapley BD, Stewart RH (1999) Anomalous warming in the Indian Ocean coincident with El Niño. J Geophys Res 104:3035–3047CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  8. Chowdary JS, Gnanaseelan C (2007) Basin wide warming of the Indian Ocean during El Niño and Indian Ocean dipole years. Int J Climatol 27:1421–1438.  https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1482 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  9. Chowdary JS, Gnanaseelan C, Xie S-P (2009) Westward propagation of barrier layer formation in the 2006–2007 Rossby wave events over the tropical southwest Indian Ocean. Geophys Res Lett 36:L04607.  https://doi.org/10.1029/2008GL036642 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  10. Chowdary JS, Parekh A, Kakatkar R, Gnanaseelan C, Srinivas G, Singh P, Roxy MK (2016a) Tropical Indian Ocean response to the decay phase of El Niño in a coupled model and associated changes in south and east-Asian summer monsoon circulation and rainfall. ClimDyn 47(3):831–844.  https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2874-9 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  11. Chowdary JS, Parekh A, Sayantani O, Gnanaseelan C, Kakatkar R (2016b) Impact of upper ocean processes and air–sea fluxes on seasonal SST biases over the tropical Indian Ocean in the NCEP climate forecasting system. Int J Climatol 36(1):188–207.  https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4336 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  12. Chowdary JS, Parekh A, Srinivas G, Gnanaseelan C, Fousiya TS, Khandekar R, Roxy MK (2016c) Processes associated with the tropical Indian Ocean subsurface temperature bias in a coupled model. J Phys Ocean 46:2063–2875.  https://doi.org/10.1175/JPO-D-15-0245.1 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  13. De S, Hazra A, Chaudhari HS (2016) Does the modification in ‘‘critical relative humidity’’ of NCEP CFSv2 dictate Indian mean summer monsoon forecast? Evaluation through thermodynamical and dynamical aspects. Clim Dyn 46:1197–1222.  https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2640-z CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  14. Dee DP, Uppala SM, Simmons AJ, Berrisford P, Poli P, Kobayashi S, Andrae U, Balmaseda MA, Balsamo G, Bauer P, Bechtold P, Beljaars ACM, van de Berg L, Bidlot J, Bormann N, Delsol C, Dragani R, Fuentes M, Geer AJ, Haimberger L, Healy SB, Hersbach H, Hólm EV, Isaksen L, Kållberg P, Köhler M, Matricardi M, McNally AP, Monge-Sanz BM, Morcrette J-J, Park B-K, Peubey C, de Rosnay P, Tavolato C, Thépaut J-N, Vitart F (2011) The ERA-Interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the data assimilation system. Q J R MeteorolSoc 137:553–597CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  15. Deshpande A, Chowdary JS, Gnanaseelan C (2014) Role of thermocline–SST coupling in the evolution of IOD events and their regional impacts. Clim Dyn 1–12.  https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-1879-5 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  16. Ek MB, Mitchell KE, Lin Y, Rogers E, Grunmann P, Koren V, Gayno G, Tarplay JD (2003) Implementation of Noah land surface model advances in the National Centers for environmental prediction operational mesoscale Eta model. J Geophys Res 108(D22):8851.  https://doi.org/10.1029/2002JD003296 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  17. Feng M, Meyers G (2003) Interannual variability in the tropical Indian Ocean: a two-year time-scale of Indian Ocean dipole. Deep-Sea Res 50:2263–2284Google Scholar
  18. Feng M, Meyers G, Wijffels S (2001) Interannual upper ocean variability in the tropical Indian Ocean. Geophys Res Lett 28:4151–4154CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  19. Gill AE (1980) Some simple solutions for heat-induced tropical circulation. Q J R Meteorol Soc 106(449):447–462.  https://doi.org/10.1256/smsqj.44904 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  20. Gnanaseelan C, Vaid BH (2010) Interannual variability in the biannual Rossby waves in the tropical Indian Ocean and its relation to Indian Ocean dipole and El Niño forcing. Ocean Dyn 60(1):27–40CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  21. Gnanaseelan C, Vaid BH, Polito PS (2008) Impact of biannual Rossby waves on the Indian Ocean Dipole. IEEE Geosci Remote Sens Lett.  https://doi.org/10.1109/LGRS.2008.919505 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  22. Gnanaseelan C, Deshpande A, McPhaden MJ (2012) Impact of Indian Ocean dipole and el Niño/southern oscillation wind-forcing on the Wyrtki jets. J Geophys Res Oceans 117(C8):C08005.  https://doi.org/10.1029/2012JC007918 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  23. Griffies S, Harrison MJ, Pacanowski RC, Anthony R (2004) A technical guide to MOM4. GFDL ocean group technical report no. 5. NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, PrincetonGoogle Scholar
  24. Karmakar A, Anant P, Chowdary JS, Gnanaseelan C (2018) Inter comparison of Tropical Indian Ocean features in differentocean reanalysis products. Clim Dyn 51(1–2):119–141.  https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-3910-8 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  25. Klein SA, Soden BJ, Lau NC (1999) Remote sea surface temperature variations during ENSO: evidence for a tropical atmospheric bridge. J Clim 12:917–932CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  26. Krishnan R, Ramesh KV, Samala BK, Meyers G, Slingo JM, Fennessy MJ (2006) Indian Ocean–monsoon coupled interactions and impending monsoon droughts. Geophys Res Lett.  https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL025811 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  27. Lau NC, Nath MJ (2000) Impact of ENSO on the variability of the Asian–Australian monsoon as simulated in GCM experiments. J Clim 13:4287–4309CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  28. Masumoto Y, Meyers G (1998) Forced Rossby waves in the southern tropical Indian Ocean. J Geophys Res 103:27589–27602CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  29. Rao SA, Behera SK (2005) Subsurface influence on SST in the tropical Indian Ocean: structure and interannual variability. Dyn Atmos Oceans 39:103–135CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  30. Rao SA, Behera SK, Masumoto Y, Yamagata T (2002) Interannual subsurface variability in the tropical Indian Ocean with a special emphasis on the Indian Ocean dipole. Deep Sea Res II49:1549–1572CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  31. Roemmich D, Gilson J (2009) The 2004–2008 mean and annual cycle of temperature, salinity, and steric height in the global ocean from the ARGO program. Prog Oceanogr 82:81–100.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pocean.2009.03.004 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  32. Roemmich D, Gilson J (2011) The global ocean imprint of ENSO. Geophys Res Lett 38:L13606.  https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL047992 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  33. Roemmich D, The Argo Science Team et al (1998) On the design and implementation of ARGO: an initial plan for a global array of profiling floats. International CLIVAR project office report 21. GODAE International Project Office, MelbourneGoogle Scholar
  34. Roxy M (2014) Sensitivity of precipitation to sea surface temperature over the tropical summer monsoon region and its quantification. Clim Dyn 43:1159–1169.  https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-1881-y CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  35. Saha S, Moorthi S, Wu X, Wang J, Nadiga S, Tripp P, Pan HL, Behringer D, Hou Y-T, Chuang H-Y, Mark I, Ek M, Meng J, Yang R (2014) The NCEP climate forecast system version 2. J Clim 27:2185–2208.  https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00823.1 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  36. Saji NH, Goswami BN, Vinayachandran PN, Yamagata T (1999) A dipole mode in the tropical Indian Ocean. Nature 401:360–363.  https://doi.org/10.1038/43854 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  37. Sayantani O, Gnanaseelan C (2015) Tropical Indian Ocean subsurface temperature variability and the forcing mechanisms. Clim Dyn 44:2447–2462.  https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2379-y CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  38. Shinoda T, Hendon HH, Alexander MA (2004) Surface and subsurface dipole variability in the Indian Ocean and its relation to ENSO. Deep Sea Res Part I Oceanogr Res Pap 51(619):635.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dsr.2004.01.005 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  39. Srinivas G, Chowdary JS, Gnanaseelan C, Prasad KVSR, Karmakar A, Parekh A (2018) Association between mean and interannual equatorial Indian Ocean subsurface temperature bias in a coupled model. Clim Dyn 50:1659–1673.  https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-3713-y CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  40. Tozuka T, Yokoi T, Yamagata T (2010) A modeling study of interannual variations of the Seychelles Dome, J Geophys Res.  https://doi.org/10.1029/2009JC005547 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  41. Uppala SM, Kållberg PW, Simmons AJ, Andrae U, Da Costa Bechtold V, Fiorino M, Gibson JK, Haseler J, Hernandez A, Kelly GA, Li X, Onogi K, Saarinen S, Sokka N, Allan RP, Andersson E, Arpe K, Balmaseda MA, Beljaars ACM, Van De Berg L, Bidlot J, Bormann N, Caires S, Chevallier F, Dethof A, Dragosavac M, Fisher M, Fuentes M, Hagemann S, Hólm E, Hoskins BJ, Isaksen L, Janssen PAEM, Jenne R, McNally AP, Mahfouf J-F, Morcrette J-J, Rayner NA, Saunders RW, Simon P, Sterl A, Trenberth KE, Untch A, Vasiljevic D, Viterbo P, Woollen J (2005) The ERA-40 re-analysis. Q J R MeteorolSoc 131:2961–3012CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  42. Vaid B, Gnanaseelan C, Polito P et al (2007) Influence of pacific on southern indian ocean Rossby waves. Pure Appl Geophys 164:1765.  https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-007-0230-7 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  43. Wang B, Wu R, Li T (2003) Atmosphere–warm ocean interaction and its impact on Asian–Australian monsoon variability. J Clim 16:1195–1211CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  44. Xiang B, Yu W, Li T, Wang B (2011) The critical role of the boreal summer mean state in the development of the IOD. Geophys Res Lett 38:L02710.  https://doi.org/10.1029/2010GL045851 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  45. Xie S-P, Annamalai H, Schott F, McCreary JP (2002) Structure and mechanisms of south Indian Ocean climate variability. J Clim 15:864–878CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  46. Yang J, Liu Q, Xie S-P, Liu Z, Wu L (2007) Impact of the Indian Ocean SST basin mode on the Asian summer monsoon. Geophys Res Lett 34:L02708.  https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL028571 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  47. Yokoi T, Tozuka T, Yamagata T (2008) Seasonal variation of the Seychelles Dome. J Clim 21:3740–3754.  https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JCLI1957.1 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  48. Yokoi T, Tozuka T, Yamagata T (2012) Seasonal and interannual variations of the SST above the Seychelles Dome. J Clim 25:800–814.  https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-10-05001.1 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  49. Yu W, Xiang B, Liu L, Liu N (2005) Understanding the origins of interannual thermocline variations in the tropical Indian Ocean. Geophys Res Lett 32:L24706.  https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GL024327 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  50. Zhou Z-Q, Xie XP, Zhang GJ, Zhou W (2018) Evaluating AMIP skill in simulating interannual variability over the Indo-Western Pacific. J Clim 31:2253–2265.  https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0123.1 CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2018

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Indian Institute of Tropical MeteorologyPuneIndia
  2. 2.Department of Atmospheric and Space SciencesSavitribai Phule Pune UniversityPuneIndia

Personalised recommendations