Advertisement

Rainfall from tropical cyclones: high-resolution simulations and seasonal forecasts

  • Wei Zhang
  • Gabriele Villarini
  • Gabriel A. Vecchi
  • Hiroyuki Murakami
Article

Abstract

This study examines the performance of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Forecast-Oriented Low Ocean Resolution version of CM2.5 (FLOR; ~ 50-km mesh) and high-resolution FLOR (HiFLOR; ~ 25-km mesh) in reproducing the climatology and interannual variability in rainfall associated with tropical cyclones (TCs) in both sea surface temperature (SST)-nudging and seasonal-forecast experiments. Overall, HiFLOR outperforms FLOR in capturing the observed climatology of TC rainfall, particularly in East Asia, North America and Australia. In general, both FLOR and HiFLOR underestimate the observed TC rainfall in the coastal regions along the Bay of Bengal, connected to their failure to accurately simulate the bimodal structure of the TC genesis seasonality. A crucial factor in capturing the climatology of TC rainfall by the models is the simulation of the climatology of spatial TC density. Overall, while HiFLOR leads to a better characterization of the areas affected by TC rainfall, the SST-nudging and seasonal-forecast experiments with both models show limited skill in reproducing the year-to-year variation in TC rainfall. Ensemble-based estimates from these models indicate low potential skill for year-to-year variations in TC rainfall, yet the models show lower skill than this. Therefore, the low skill for interannual TC rainfall in these models reflects both a fundamental limit on predictability/reproducibility of seasonal TC rainfall as well as shortcomings in the models.

Notes

Acknowledgements

We are grateful to two anonymous reviewers for helpful comments. This material is based in part upon work supported by the National Science Foundation under Grants AGS-1262091 and AGS-1262099, and Award NA14OAR4830101 from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce.

Supplementary material

382_2018_4446_MOESM1_ESM.docx (4.9 mb)
Supplementary material 1 (DOCX 5065 KB)

References

  1. Bagtasa G (2017) Contribution of tropical cyclones to rainfall in the Philippines. J Clim 30:3621–3633CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  2. Barlow M (2011) Influence of hurricane-related activity on North American extreme precipitation. Geophys Res Lett 38:L04705CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  3. Beck HE, van Dijk AIJM, Levizzani V, Schellekens J, Miralles DG, Martens B, de Roo A (2017a) MSWEP: 3-hourly 0.25° global gridded precipitation (1979–2015) by merging gauge, satellite, and reanalysis data. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 21:589–615CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  4. Beck HE et al (2017b) Global-scale evaluation of 22 precipitation datasets using gauge observations and hydrological modeling. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 21:6201–6217CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  5. Bell R, Hodges K, Vidale PL, Strachan J, Roberts M (2014) Simulation of the global ENSO–tropical cyclone teleconnection by a high-resolution coupled general circulation model. J Clim 27:6404–6422CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  6. Camargo SJ, Wing AA (2016) Tropical cyclones in climate models. Wiley Interdiscip Rev Clim Change 7:211–237CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  7. Chand SS, Tory KJ, McBride JL, Wheeler MC, Dare RA, Walsh KJ (2013) The different impact of positive-neutral and negative-neutral ENSO regimes on Australian tropical cyclones. J Clim 26:8008–8016CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  8. Chen F, Fu Y (2015) Contribution of tropical cyclone rainfall at categories to total precipitation over the Western North Pacific from 1998 to 2007. Sci China Earth Sci 58:2015–2025CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  9. Chen Y, Ebert EE, Walsh KJE, Davidson NE (2013) Evaluation of TMPA 3B42 daily precipitation estimates of tropical cyclone rainfall over Australia. J Geophys Res Atmos 118:11966–911978Google Scholar
  10. Czajkowski J, Villarini G, Montgomery M, Michel-Kerjan E, Goska R (2017) Assessing current and future freshwater flood risk from North Atlantic tropical cyclones via insurance claims. Sci Rep 7:41609CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  11. Daloz AS et al (2015) Cluster analysis of downscaled and explicitly simulated North Atlantic tropical cyclone tracks. J Clim 28:1333–1361.  https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-13-00646.1 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  12. Dare RA, Davidson NE, McBride JL (2012) Tropical cyclone contribution to rainfall over Australia. Mon Weather Rev 140:3606–3619CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  13. Delworth TL et al (2006) GFDL’s CM2 global coupled climate models. Part I: formulation and simulation characteristics. J Clim 19:643–674CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  14. Delworth TL et al (2012) Simulated climate and climate change in the GFDL CM2.5 high-resolution coupled climate model. J Clim 25:2755–2781CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  15. Dowdy AJ, Qi L, Jones D, Ramsay H, Fawcett R, Kuleshov Y (2012) Tropical cyclone climatology of the South Pacific Ocean and its relationship to El Niño–Southern Oscillation. J Clim 25:6108–6122.  https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-11-00647.1 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  16. Emanuel K (2017) Assessing the present and future probability of Hurricane Harvey’s rainfall. Proc Natl Acad Sci 2017:201716222Google Scholar
  17. Felton CS, Subrahmanyam B, Murty VSN (2013) ENSO-modulated cyclogenesis over the Bay of Bengal. J Clim 26:9806–9818.  https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-13-00134.1 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  18. Gaona MFR, Villarini G, Zhang W, Vecchi GA (2018) The added value of IMERG in characterizing rainfall in tropical cyclones. Atmos Res 209:95–102.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2018.03.008 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  19. Girishkumar MS, Ravichandran M (2012) The influences of ENSO on tropical cyclone activity in the Bay of Bengal during October–December. J Geophys Res Oceans.  https://doi.org/10.1029/2011JC007417 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  20. Gu X, Zhang Q, Singh VP, Liu L, Shi P (2017) Spatiotemporal patterns of annual and seasonal precipitation extreme distributions across China and potential impact of tropical cyclones. Int J Climatol 37:3949–3962CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  21. Harris LM, Lin S-J, Tu C (2016) High-resolution climate simulations using GFDL HiRAM with a stretched global grid. J Clim 29:4293–4314CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  22. Hashino T, Bradley AA, Schwartz SS (2007) Evaluation of bias-correction methods for ensemble streamflow volume forecasts. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 11:939–950CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  23. Jiang H, Zipser EJ (2010) Contribution of tropical cyclones to the global precipitation from eight seasons of TRMM data: regional, seasonal, and interannual variations. J Clim 23:1526–1543CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  24. Jiang H, Liu C, Zipser EJ (2011) A TRMM-based tropical cyclone cloud and precipitation feature database. J Appl Meteorol Climatol 50:1255–1274CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  25. Kam J, Sheffield J, Yuan X, Wood EF (2013) The influence of Atlantic tropical cyclones on drought over the eastern United States (1980–2007). J Clim 26:3067–3086CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  26. Kamahori H (2012) Mean features of tropical cyclone precipitation from TRMM/3B42. SOLA 8:017–020.  https://doi.org/10.2151/sola.2012-005 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  27. Khouakhi A, Villarini G, Vecchi GA (2017) Contribution of tropical cyclones to rainfall at the global scale. J Clim 30:359–372CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  28. Knapp KR, Kruk MC, Levinson DH, Diamond HJ, Neumann CJ (2010) The international best track archive for climate stewardship (IBTrACS). Bull Am Meteorol Soc 91:363–376CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  29. Knight DB, Davis RE (2009) Contribution of tropical cyclones to extreme rainfall events in the southeastern United States. J Geophys Res Atmos 114:D23102CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  30. Knutson TR et al (2010) Tropical cyclones and climate change. Nat Geosci 3:157CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  31. Kuleshov Y, Qi L, Fawcett R, Jones D (2008) On tropical cyclone activity in the Southern Hemisphere: trends and the ENSO connection. Geophys Res Lett 35Google Scholar
  32. Langousis A, Veneziano D (2009) Theoretical model of rainfall in tropical cyclones for the assessment of long-term risk. J Geophys Res Atmos 114:D02106CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  33. Larson J, Zhou Y, Higgins RW (2005) Characteristics of landfalling tropical cyclones in the United States and Mexico: climatology and interannual variability. J Clim 18:1247–1262CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  34. Lau KM, Zhou Y, Wu HT (2008) Have tropical cyclones been feeding more extreme rainfall? J Geophys Res Atmos 113:D23113CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  35. Lavender SL, Abbs DJ (2013) Trends in Australian rainfall: contribution of tropical cyclones and closed lows. Clim Dyn 40:317–326CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  36. Li Z, Yu W, Li T, Murty VSN, Tangang F (2013) Bimodal character of cyclone climatology in the Bay of Bengal modulated by monsoon seasonal cycle. J Clim 26:1033–1046CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  37. Lin Y, Zhao M, Zhang M (2015) Tropical cyclone rainfall area controlled by relative sea surface temperature. Nat Commun 6:6591CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  38. Liu M, Vecchi GA, Smith JA, Murakami H (2018) Projection of landfalling–tropical cyclone rainfall in the Eastern United States under anthropogenic warming. J Clim 31:7269–7286CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  39. Maxwell JT, Soulé PT, Ortegren JT, Knapp PA (2012) Drought-busting tropical cyclones in the southeastern Atlantic United States: 1950–2008. Ann Assoc Am Geogr 102:259–275CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  40. Murakami H et al (2015) Simulation and prediction of category 4 and 5 hurricanes in the high-resolution GFDL HiFLOR coupled climate model. J Clim 28:9058–9079CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  41. Murakami H et al (2016) Seasonal forecasts of major hurricanes and landfalling tropical cyclones using a high-resolution GFDL coupled climate model. J Clim 29:7977–7989CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  42. Murakami H et al (2017) Dominant role of subtropical pacific warming in extreme Eastern Pacific hurricane seasons: 2015 and the future. J Clim 30:243–264CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  43. Murphy AH, Winkler RL (1992) Diagnostic verification of probability forecasts. Int J Forecast 7:435–455.  https://doi.org/10.1016/0169-2070(92)90028-8 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  44. van Oldenborgh GJ et al (2017) Attribution of extreme rainfall from Hurricane Harvey, August 2017. Environ Res Lett 12:124009CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  45. Pascale S et al (2016) The impact of horizontal resolution on North American Monsoon Gulf of California moisture surges in a suite of coupled global climate models. J Clim 29:7911–7936CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  46. Pascale S et al (2017) Weakening of the North American monsoon with global warming. Nat Clim Change 7:806CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  47. Peterson TC, Hoerling MP, Stott PA, Herring SC (2013) Explaining extreme events of 2012 from a climate perspective. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 94:S1–S74CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  48. Prat OP, Nelson BR (2013) Precipitation contribution of tropical cyclones in the southeastern United States from 1998 to 2009 using TRMM satellite data. J Clim 26:1047–1062CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  49. Prat OP, Nelson BR (2016) On the link between tropical cyclones and daily rainfall extremes derived from global satellite observations. J Clim 29:6127–6135CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  50. Ramsay HA, Leslie LM, Lamb PJ, Richman MB, Leplastrier M (2008) Interannual variability of tropical cyclones in the Australian region: role of large-scale environment. J Clim 21:1083–1103.  https://doi.org/10.1175/2007jcli1970.1 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  51. Rappaport EN (2014) Fatalities in the United States from Atlantic tropical cyclones: new data and interpretation. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 95:341–346CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  52. Risser MD, Wehner MF (2017) Attributable human-induced changes in the likelihood and magnitude of the observed extreme precipitation during hurricane Harvey. Geophys Res Lett 44:12457–412464CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  53. Rodgers EB, Adler RF, Pierce HF (2001) Contribution of tropical cyclones to the North Atlantic climatological rainfall as observed from satellites. J Appl Meteorol 40:1785–1800CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  54. Rogers R, Marks F, Marchok T (2006) Tropical cyclone rainfall. Encyclopedia of hydrological sciences. Wiley, OxfordGoogle Scholar
  55. Scoccimarro E, Gualdi S, Villarini G, Vecchi GA, Zhao M, Walsh K, Navarra A (2014) Intense precipitation events associated with landfalling tropical cyclones in response to a warmer climate and increased CO2. J Clim 27:4642–4654CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  56. Scoccimarro E, Villarini G, Gualdi S, Navarra A, Vecchi G, Walsh K, Zhao M (2017) Tropical cyclone rainfall changes in a warmer climate. Hurricanes and climate change. Springer, Berlin, pp 243–255Google Scholar
  57. Shaevitz DA et al (2014) Characteristics of tropical cyclones in high-resolution models in the present climate. J Adv Model Earth Syst 6:1154–1172CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  58. Shepherd JM, Grundstein A, Mote TL (2007) Quantifying the contribution of tropical cyclones to extreme rainfall along the coastal southeastern United States. Geophys Res Lett 34:L23810CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  59. Skok G, Bacmeister J, Tribbia J (2013) Analysis of tropical cyclone precipitation using an object-based algorithm. J Clim 26:2563–2579CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  60. Slater LJ, Villarini G, Bradley AA (2017) Weighting of NMME temperature and precipitation forecasts across Europe. J Hydrol 552:646–659CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  61. Vecchi GA et al (2014) On the seasonal forecasting of regional tropical cyclone activity. J Clim 27:7994–8016CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  62. Villarini G, Denniston RF (2016) Contribution of tropical cyclones to extreme rainfall in Australia. Int J Climatol 36:1019–1025CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  63. Villarini G et al (2014) Sensitivity of tropical cyclone rainfall to idealized global-scale forcings. J Clim 27:4622–4641CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  64. Wang C-C, Lin B-X, Chen C-T, Lo S-H (2014) Quantifying the effects of long-term climate change on tropical cyclone rainfall using a cloud-resolving model: examples of two landfall typhoons in Taiwan. J Clim 28:66–85CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  65. van der Wiel K et al (2016) The resolution dependence of contiguous U.S. precipitation extremes in response to CO2 forcing. J Clim 29:7991–8012CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  66. Zhang S, Rosati A (2010) An inflated ensemble filter for ocean data assimilation with a biased coupled GCM. Mon Weather Rev 138:3905–3931CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  67. Zhang W, Graf H-F, Leung Y, Herzog M (2012) Different El Niño types and tropical cyclone landfall in East Asia. J Clim 25:6510–6523CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  68. Zhang W, Vecchi GA, Murakami H, Villarini G, Jia L (2016a) The Pacific meridional mode and the occurrence of tropical cyclones in the Western North Pacific. J Clim 29:381–398CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  69. Zhang W et al (2016b) Improved simulation of tropical cyclone responses to ENSO in the Western North Pacific in the high-resolution GFDL HiFLOR coupled climate model. J Clim 29:1391–1415CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  70. Zhang W, Villarini G, Vecchi GA (2017) Impacts of the Pacific meridional mode on rainfall over the maritime continent and Australia: potential for seasonal predictions. Clim Dyn 2017:1–15Google Scholar
  71. Zhang W, Vecchi GA, Murakami H, Villarini G, Delworth TL, Yang X, Jia L (2018) Dominant role of atlantic multidecadal oscillation in the recent decadal changes in Western North Pacific tropical cyclone activity. Geophys Res Lett 45:354–362CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  72. Zhu L, Frauenfeld OW, Quiring SM (2013) Seasonal tropical cyclone precipitation in Texas: a statistical modeling approach based on a 60 year climatology. J Geophys Res Atmos 118:8842–8856CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2018

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.IIHR-Hydroscience and EngineeringThe University of IowaIowa CityUSA
  2. 2.Department of GeosciencesPrinceton UniversityPrincetonUSA
  3. 3.Princeton Environmental InstitutePrinceton UniversityPrincetonUSA
  4. 4.National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics LaboratoryPrincetonUSA
  5. 5.Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences ProgramPrinceton UniversityPrincetonUSA

Personalised recommendations