Advertisement

Climate Dynamics

, Volume 51, Issue 9–10, pp 3957–3968 | Cite as

The Little Ice Age was 1.0–1.5 °C cooler than current warm period according to LOD and NAO

  • Adriano Mazzarella
  • Nicola Scafetta
Article

Abstract

We study the yearly values of the length of day (LOD, 1623–2016) and its link to the zonal index (ZI, 1873–2003), the Northern Atlantic oscillation index (NAO, 1659–2000) and the global sea surface temperature (SST, 1850–2016). LOD is herein assumed to be mostly the result of the overall circulations occurring within the ocean-atmospheric system. We find that LOD is negatively correlated with the global SST and with both the integral function of ZI and NAO, which are labeled as IZI and INAO. A first result is that LOD must be driven by a climatic change induced by an external (e.g. solar/astronomical) forcing since internal variability alone would have likely induced a positive correlation among the same variables because of the conservation of the Earth’s angular momentum. A second result is that the high correlation among the variables implies that the LOD and INAO records can be adopted as global proxies to reconstruct past climate change. Tentative global SST reconstructions since the seventeenth century suggest that around 1700, that is during the coolest period of the Little Ice Age (LIA), SST could have been about 1.0–1.5 °C cooler than the 1950–1980 period. This estimated LIA cooling is greater than what some multiproxy global climate reconstructions suggested, but it is in good agreement with other more recent climate reconstructions including those based on borehole temperature data.

Keywords

Length of day Zonal index Northern Atlantic Oscillation Global sea surface temperature Past climate reconstruction Little Ice Age 

References

  1. Aguardo E, Burt JE (2014) Understanding weather and climate. Pearson, UKGoogle Scholar
  2. Bendat JS, Piersol AG (1971) Random data analysis: measurement procedures. WileyInterscience, New YorkGoogle Scholar
  3. Brohan P, Kennedy JJ, Harris I, Tett SFB, Jones PD (2006) Uncertainty estimates in regional and global observed temperature changes: a new dataset from 1850. J Geophys Res 111:D12106CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  4. Christiansen B, Ljungqvist FC (2012) The extra-tropical Northern Hemisphere temperature in the last two millennia: reconstructions of low-frequency variability. Clim Past 8:765–786CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  5. Cook ER, D’Arrigo RD, Mann ME (2002) A well-verified, multiproxy reconstruction of the winter north Atlantic oscillation index since A.D. 1400. J Clim 15:1754–1764CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  6. Hodella DA, Brennera M, Curtisa JH, Medina-González R, Canb EI-C, Albornaz-Patb A, Guilderson TP (2005) Climate change on the Yucatan Peninsula during the Little Ice Age. Quatern Res 63(2):109–121CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  7. Holton JR (2004) An introduction to dynamic meteorology. International Geophysical Series, vol 48 Academic Press, CambridgeGoogle Scholar
  8. Hoyt DV, Schatten KH (1993) A discussion of plausible solar irradiance variations, 1700–1992. J Geophys Res 98:18895–18906CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  9. Huang SP, Pollack HN, Shen P-Y (2008) A late Quaternary climate reconstruction based on borehole heat flux data, borehole temperature data, and the instrumental record. Geophys Res Lett 35:L13703CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  10. IPCC, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (2007) Climate change 2007: the physical science basis. Cambridge Univ. Press, CambridgeCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  11. IPCC, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (2013) Climate change 2013: the physical science basis. Cambridge Univ. Press, CambridgeGoogle Scholar
  12. Jones PD, Jónsson T, Wheeler D (1997) Extension to the North Atlantic Oscillation using early instrumental pressure observations from Gibraltar and South-West Iceland. Int J Climatol 17:1433–1450CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  13. Kerr RA (2001) A variable sun paces millennial climate. Science 294:1431–1433CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  14. Kirkby J, 2007. Cosmic rays and climate. Surv Geophys 28:333–375CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  15. Lamb HH (1972) Climate, present, past and future. Methuen LondonGoogle Scholar
  16. Lambeck K (1980) The earth’s variable rotation. Cambridge University Press, CambridgeCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  17. Luterbacher J, Xoplaki E, Dietrich D, Jones PD, Davies TD,. Portis D, Gonzalez-Rouco JF, von Storch H, Gyalistras D, Casty C, Wanner H (2002) Extending north Atlantic oscillation reconstructions back to 1500. Atmos Sci Lett 2:114–124CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  18. Mann ME, Bradley R, Hughes MK (1999) Northern Hemisphere temperatures during the last millennium: Inferences, uncertainties, and limitations. Geophys Res Lett 26(6):759–762CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  19. Mann ME, Zhang Z, Hughes MK, Bradley RS, Miller SK, Rutherford S, Ni F (2008) Proxy-based reconstructions of hemispheric and global surface temperature variations over the past two millennia. PNAS 105:13252–13257CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  20. Mazzarella A (2007) The 60-year modulation of global air temperature: the Earth’s rotation and atmospheric circulation connection. Theor Appl Climatol 88:193–199CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  21. Mazzarella A, Scafetta N (2012) Evidences for a quasi 60-year North Atlantic Oscillation since 1700 and its meaning for global climatic change. Theor Appl Climatol 107:599–609CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  22. Mazzarella A, Giuliacci A, Scafetta N (2013) Quantifying the multivariate ENSO index (MEI) coupling to CO2 concentration and to the length of day variations. Theoret Appl Climatol 111:601–607CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  23. Moberg A, Sonechkin DM, Holmgren K, Datsenko NM, Karlén W (2005) Highly variable Northern Hemisphere temperatures reconstructed from low- and highresolution proxy data. Nature 433:613–617CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  24. Nunn PD (2000) Environmental catastrophe in the Pacific Islands around A.D. 1300. Geoarcheology 15:715–740CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  25. Ortega P, Lehner F, Swingedouw D, Masson-Delmotte V, Raible CC, Casado M, Yiou P (2015) A model-tested North Atlantic Oscillation reconstruction for the past millennium. Nature 523(7558):71–74CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  26. Rayner NA, Parker DE, Horton EB, Folland CK, Alexander LV, Rowell DP, Kent EC, Kaplan A (2003) Globally complete analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice and night marine air temperature, 1871–2000. J Geophys Res 108(D14):4407CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  27. Rhodes RH, Bertler NA, Baker JA, Steen-Larsen HC, Sneed SB, Morgenstern U, Johnsen SJ (2012) Little Ice Age climate and oceanic conditions of the Ross Sea, Antarctica from a coastal ice core record. Climate of the Past 8:1223–1238CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  28. Rossby CG, 1941. The scientific basis of modern meteorology in climate and man. In Yearbook (ed), U.S. Dept of Agriculture Washington DC, Washington DCGoogle Scholar
  29. Sánchez-López G, Hernández A, Pla-Rabes S, Trigo RM, Toro M, Granados I, Sáez A, Masqué P, Pueyo JJ, Rubio-Inglés MJ, Giralt S (2016) Climate reconstruction for the last two millennia in central Iberia: The role of East Atlantic (EA), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and their interplay over the Iberian Peninsula. Quatern Sci Rev 149:135–150CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  30. Scafetta N (2012) Multi-scale harmonic model for solar and climate cyclical variation throughout the Holocene based on Jupiter-Saturn tidal frequencies plus the 11-year solar dynamo cycle. J Atmos Solar Terr Phys 80:296–311CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  31. Scafetta N (2013) Discussion on climate oscillations: CMIP5 general circulation models versus a semi-empirical harmonic model based on astronomical cycles. Earth Sci Rev 126:321–357CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  32. Scafetta N (2014a) Multi-scale dynamical analysis (MSDA) of sea level records versus PDO, AMO, and NAO indexes. Clim Dyn 43:175–192CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  33. Scafetta N (2014b) Discussion on the spectral coherence between planetary, solar and climate oscillations: a reply to some critiques. Astrophys Space Sci 354:275–299CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  34. Scafetta N, Mazzarella A (2015) The Arctic and Antarctic sea-ice area index records versus measured and modeled temperature data. Adv Meteorol (Article ID 481834)Google Scholar
  35. Scafetta N, Grigolini P, Imholt T, Roberts JA, West BJ (2004) Solar turbulence in earth’s global and regional temperature anomalies. Phys Rev E 69:026303CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  36. Scafetta N, Milani F, Bianchini A, Ortolani S (2016) On the astronomical origin of the Hallstatt oscillation found in radiocarbon and climate records throughout the Holocene. Earth Sci Rev 162:24–43CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  37. Scafetta N, Mirandola A, Bianchini A (2017a) Natural climate variability, part 1: observations versus the modeled predictions. Int J Heat Technol 35:S9-S17Google Scholar
  38. Scafetta N, Mirandola A, Bianchini A (2017b) Natural climate variability, part 2: interpretation of the post 2000 temperature standstill. Int J Heat Technol 35:S18-S26Google Scholar
  39. Shapiro AI, Schmutz W, Rozanov E, Schoell M, Haberreiter M, Shapiro AV, Nyeki S (2011) A new approach to the long-term reconstruction of the solar irradiance leads to large historical solar forcing. Astron Astrophy 529:A67CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  40. Sidorenkov NS (2005) Physics of the Earth’s rotation instabilities. Astron Astrophys Trans 24(5):425–439CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  41. Sidorenkov NS (2009) The interaction between Earth’s rotation and geophysical processes. Wiley-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, WeinheimCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  42. Sidorenkov NS, Orlov IA (2008) Atmospheric circulation epochs and climate changes. Russ Meteorol Hydrol 33:553–559CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  43. Sidorenkov N, Wilson IRG (2009) The decadal fluctuations in the Earth’s rotation and in the climate characteristics. Proceedings of the Journées 2008 “Systèmes de référence spatio-temporels” & X. Lohrmann-Kolloquium: Astrometry, Geodynamics and Astronomical Reference Systems, TU Dresden, Germany, 22–24 September 2008, Edited by M. Soffel & N. Capitaine, Lohrmann-Observatorium and Observatoire de Paris, ISBN 978-2-901057-63-5, pp 174–174Google Scholar
  44. Soon W, Legates DR (2013) Solar irradiance modulation of Equator-to-Pole (Arctic) temperature gradients: Empirical evidence for climate variation on multi-decadal timescales. J Atmos Solar Terr Phys 93:45–56CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  45. Steinhilber F, Abreu JA, Beer J et al (2012) 9,400 years of cosmic radiation and solar activity from ice cores and tree rings. PNAS 109:5967–5971CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  46. Stephenson FR, Morrison LV (1995) Long-term fluctuations in Earth’s rotation: 700 BC to AD 1990. Phil Trans R Soc A 351:165–202Google Scholar
  47. Stephenson FR, Morrison LV, Hohenkerk CY (2016) Measurement of the Earth’s rotation: 720 BC to AD 2015. Proc R Soc A 472:20160404CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  48. Trouet V, Esper J, Graham NE, Baker A,. Scourse JD, Frank DC (2009) Persistent positive North Atlantic oscillation mode dominated the medieval climate anomaly. Science 324:78–80CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  49. Wang Y-M, Lean JL, Sheeley NR Jr (2005) Modeling the sun’s magnetic field and irradiance since 1713. Astrophys J 625:522–538CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  50. Wilson IRG (2011) Are changes in the earth’s rotation rate externally driven and do they affect climate? Gen Sci J 3811:1–31Google Scholar
  51. Wyatt M, Curry J (2014) Role of Eurasian Arctic shelf sea ice in a secularly varying hemispheric climate signal during the 20th century. Clim Dyn 42:2763–2782CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  52. Zotov L, Bizouard C, Schum CK (2016) A possible interrelation between Earth rotation and climatic variability at decadal time-scale. Geodesy Geodynamic 7:216–222CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2018

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Meteorological Observatory, Department of Science of the Earth, Environment and ResourcesUniversità degli Studi di Napoli Federico IINaplesItaly

Personalised recommendations