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Climate Dynamics

, Volume 51, Issue 1–2, pp 627–637 | Cite as

Quantification of temperature persistence over the Northern Hemisphere land-area

  • Peter PfleidererEmail author
  • Dim Coumou
Article

Abstract

Extreme weather events such as heat waves and floods are damaging to society and their contribution to future climate impacts is expected to be large. Such extremes are often related to persistent local weather conditions. Weather persistence is linked to sea surface temperatures, soil-moisture (especially in summer) and large-scale circulation patterns and these factors can alter under past and future climate change. Though persistence is a key characteristic for extreme weather events, to date the climatology and potential changes in persistence have only been poorly documented. Here, we present a systematic analysis of temperature persistence for the northern hemisphere land area. We define persistence as the length of consecutive warm or cold days and use spatial clustering techniques to create regional persistence distributions. We find that persistence is longest in the Arctic and shortest in the mid-latitudes. Parameterizations of the regional persistence distributions show that they are characterized by an exponential decay with a drop in the decay rate for very persistent events, implying that feedback mechanisms are important in prolonging these events. For the mid-latitudes, we find that persistence in summer has increased over the past 60 years. The changes are particularly pronounced for prolonged events suggesting a lengthening in the duration of heat waves.

Keywords

Extreme weather Persistence Blocking Climate change 

Notes

Acknowledgements

We acknowledge the HadGHCND dataset from the Met Office Hadley Centre. We also gratefully acknowledge the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF), the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) and the Land Brandenburg for supporting this project by providing resources on the high performance computer system at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research. The presented work was supported by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (Grant No. 01LN1304A).

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Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany 2017

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Earth System AnalysisPotsdamGermany
  2. 2.Climate AnalyticsBerlinGermany
  3. 3.Departement of Water and Climate Risk, Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM)VU Universisty AmsterdamAmsterdamThe Netherlands

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