Advertisement

Climate Dynamics

, Volume 53, Issue 12, pp 7169–7184 | Cite as

Seasonal forecasts of North Atlantic tropical cyclone activity in the North American Multi-Model Ensemble

  • Julia V. ManganelloEmail author
  • Benjamin A. Cash
  • Kevin I. Hodges
  • James L. KinterIII
Article

Abstract

The North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME)-Phase II models are evaluated in terms of their retrospective seasonal forecast skill of the North Atlantic (NA) tropical cyclone (TC) activity, with a focus on TC frequency. The TC identification and tracking algorithm is modified to accommodate model data at daily resolution. It is also applied to three reanalysis products at the spatial and temporal resolution of the NMME-Phase II ensemble to allow for a more objective estimation of forecast skill. When used with the reanalysis data, the TC tracking generates realistic climatological distributions of the NA TC formation and tracks, and represents the interannual variability of the NA TC frequency quite well. Forecasts with the multi-model ensemble (MME) when initialized in April and later tend to have skill in predicting the NA seasonal TC counts (and TC days). At longer leads, the skill is low or marginal, although one of the models produces skillful forecasts when initialized as early as January and February. At short lead times, while demonstrating the highest skill levels the MME also tends to significantly outperform the individual models and attain skill comparable to the reanalysis. In addition, the short-lead MME forecasts are quite reliable. At regional scales, the skill is rather limited and mostly present in the western tropical NA and the Caribbean Sea. It is found that the overall MME forecast skill is limited by poor representation of the low-frequency variability in the predicted TC frequency, and large fluctuations in skill on decadal time scales. Addressing these deficiencies is thought to increase the value of the NMME ensemble in providing operational guidance.

Keywords

Seasonal forecasts North Atlantic Tropical cyclone frequency North American Multi-Model Ensemble 

Notes

Acknowledgements

Funding of COLA for this study is provided by Grants from NSF (AGS-1338427), NOAA (NA09OAR4310058 and NA14OAR4310160), NASA (NNX14AM19G), and the ONR Grant (N00014-15-1-2745). We acknowledge NOAA MAPP, NSF, NASA, and the DOE that support the NMME-Phase II system, and we thank the climate modeling groups (Environment Canada, NASA, NCAR, NOAA/GFDL, NOAA/NCEP, and University of Miami) for producing and making available their model output. NOAA/NCEP, NOAA/CTB, and NOAA/CPO jointly provided coordinating support and led development of the NMME-Phase II system. We also gratefully acknowledge computing resources on the Yellowstone supercomputer provided by the National Center for Atmospheric Research.

Supplementary material

382_2017_3670_MOESM1_ESM.docx (405 kb)
Supplementary material 1 (DOCX 405 KB)

References

  1. Bengtsson L, Böttger H, Kanamitsu M (1982) Simulation of hurricane-type vortices in a general circulation model. Tellus 34:440–457CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  2. Camargo SJ, Wing AA (2016) Tropical cyclones in climate models. WIREs Clim Change 7:211–237CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  3. Camargo SJ, Barnston AG, Klotzbach PJ, Landsea CW (2007) Seasonal tropical cyclone forecasts. World Meteorol Org Bull 56:297–309Google Scholar
  4. Camp J, Roberts M, MacLachlan C, Wallace E, Hermanson L, Brookshaw A, Arribas A, Scaife AA (2015) Seasonal forecasting of tropical storms using the Met Office GloSea5 seasonal forecast system. Q J R Meteorol Soc. doi: 10.1002/qj.2516 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  5. Caron L-P, Boudreault M, Bruyere CL (2015) Changes in large-scale controls of Atlantic tropical cyclone activity with the phases of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation. Clim Dyn 44:1801–1821CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  6. Dee DP et al (2011) The ERA-Interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the data assimilation system. Q J R Meteorol Soc 137:553–597. doi: 10.1002/qj.828 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  7. DelSole T, Tippett MK (2014) Comparing forecast skill. Mon Weather Rev 142(12):4658–4678CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  8. Emanuel KA, Solomon S, Folini D, Davis S, Cagnazzo C (2013) Influence of tropical tropopause layer cooling on Atlantic Hurricane activity. J Clim 26:2288–2301CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  9. Evan AT, Vimont DJ, Heidinger AK, Kossin JP, Bennartz R (2009) The role of aerosols in the evolution of tropical North Atlantic Ocean temperature anomalies. Science 324:778–781CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  10. Evan AT, Foltz GR, Zhang D, Vimont DJ (2011) Influence of African dust on ocean-atmosphere variability in the tropical Atlantic. Nat Geosci 4:762–765CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  11. Fink AH, Schrage JM, Kotthaus S (2010) On the potential causes of the nonstationary correlations between West African Precipitation and Atlantic Hurricane Activity. J Clim 23:5437–5456CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  12. Goldenberg SB, Landsea CW, Mestas-Nuez AM, Gray WM (2001) The recent increase in Atlantic hurricane activity: causes and implications. Science 293:474–479CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  13. Hodges KI (1995) Feature tracking on the unit sphere. Mon Weather Rev 123:3458–3465CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  14. Hodges KI (1999) Adaptive constraints for feature tracking. Mon Weather Rev 127:1362–1373CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  15. Horn M, Walsh K, Zhao M, Camargo SJ, Scoccimarro E, Murakami H, Wang H, Ballinger A, Kumar A, Shaevitz DA, Jonas JA, Oouchi K (2014) Tracking scheme dependence of simulated tropical cyclone response to idealized climate simulations. J Clim 27:9197–9213CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  16. Kirtman BP et al (2014) The North American multimodel ensemble: phase 1 seasonal-to-interannual prediction; phase-2 toward developing intraseasoanl prediction. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 95:585–601CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  17. Knapp KR, Kruk MC, Levinson DH, Diamond HJ, Neumann CJ (2010) The International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS). Bull Am Meteorol Soc 91:363–376CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  18. Manganello JV, Hodges KI, JL Kinter I II, Cash BA, Marx L, Jung T, Achuthavarier D, Adams JM, Altshuler EL, Huang B, Jin EK, Stan C, Towers P, Wedi N (2012) Tropical cyclone climatology in a 10-km global atmospheric GCM: toward weather-resolving climate modeling. J Clim 25:3867–3893CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  19. Manganello JV, Hodges KI, Cash BA, JL Kinter I II, Altshuler EL, Fennessy MJ, Vitart F, Molteni F, Towers P (2016) Seasonal forecasts of tropical cyclone activity in a high atmospheric resolution coupled prediction system. J Clim 29:1179–1200CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  20. Merryfield WJ et al (2013) The Canadian seasonal to interannual prediction system. Part I: models and initialization. Mon Weather Rev 141:2910–2945CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  21. Molteni F, Stockdale T, Balmaseda M, Balsamo G, Buizza R, Ferranti L, Magnusson L, Mogensen K, Palmer T, Vitart F (2011) The new ECMWF seasonal forecast system (System 4). ECMWF Tech Memo 656:49Google Scholar
  22. Murakami H, Vecchi GA, Villarini G, Delworth TL, Gudgel R, Underwood S, Yang X, Zhang W, Lin S-J (2016) Seasonal forecasts of major hurricanes and landfalling tropical cyclones using a high-resolution GFDL coupled climate model. J Clim 29:7977–7989CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  23. Reynolds RW, Rayner NA, Smith TM, Stokes DC, Wang W (2002) An improved in situ and satellite SST analysis for climate. J Clim 15:1609–1625CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  24. Rienecker MM et al (2011) MERRA: NASA’s modern-era retrospective analysis for research and applications. J Clim 24:3624–3648CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  25. Roberts MJ, Vidale PL, Mizielinski MS, Demory M-E, Schiemann R, Strachan J, Hodges K, Bell R, Camp J (2015) Tropical cyclones in the UPSCALE ensemble of high-resolution global climate models. J Clim 28:574–596CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  26. Saha S et al (2010) The NCEP climate forecast system reanalysis. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 91(8):1015–1057CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  27. Smith DM, Eade R, Dunstone NJ, Fereday D, Murphy JM, Pohlmann H, Scaife AA (2010) Skilful multi-year predictions of Atlantic hurricane frequency. Nat Geosci 3:846–849CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  28. Strachan J, Vidale PL, Hodges K, Roberts M, Demory M-E (2013) Investigating global tropical cyclone activity with a hierarchy of AGCMs: the role of model resolution. J Clim 26:133–152CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  29. Vecchi GA, Zhao M, Wang H, Villarini G, Rosati A, Kumar A, Held IM, Gudgel R (2011) Statistical-dynamical predictions of seasonal North Atlantic hurricane activity. Mon Weather Rev 139:1070–1082CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  30. Vecchi GA, Fueglistaler S, Held IM, Knutson TR, Zhao M (2013) Impacts of atmospheric temperature trends on tropical cyclone activity. J Clim 26:3877–3891CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  31. Vecchi GA, Delworth T, Gudgel R, Kapnick S, Rosati A, Wittenberg AT, Zeng F, Anderson W, Balaji V, Dixon K, Jia L, Kim H-S, Krishnamurthy L, Msadek R, Stern WF, Underwood SD, Villarini G, Yang X, Zhang S (2014) On the seasonal forecasting of regional tropical cyclone activity. J Clim 27:7994–8016CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  32. Vernieres G, Keppenne C, Rienecker MM, Jacob J, Kovach R (2012) The GEOS-ODAS, description and evaluation. NASA Technical Report Series on Global Modeling and Data Assimilation, NASA/TM-2012-104606, vol 30Google Scholar
  33. Villarini G, Vecchi GA, Smith JA (2010) Modeling the dependence of tropical storm counts in the North Atlantic basin on climate indices. Mon Weather Rev 138:2681–2705CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  34. Vitart F (2006) Seasonal forecasting of tropical storm frequency using a multi-model ensemble. Q J R Meteorol Soc 132:647–666CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  35. Vitart F (2016) Tropical cyclogenesis in the S2S Database. S2S News Lett 3:3–6Google Scholar
  36. Vitart F, Huddleston MR, Déqué M, Peake D, Palmer TN, Stockdale TN, Davey MK, Ineson S, Weisheimer A (2007) Dynamically-based seasonal forecasts of Atlantic tropical storm activity issued in June by EUROSIP. Geophys Res Lett 34:L16815. doi: 10.1029/2007GL030740 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  37. Walsh KJE, Fiorino M, Landsea CW, McInnes KL (2007) Objectively determined resolution-dependent threshold criteria for the detection of tropical cyclones in climate models and reanalyses. J Clim 20:2307–2314CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  38. WMO (2008) Report from expert meeting to evaluate skill of tropical cyclone seasonal forecasts. World Meteorological Organization. Tech. Doc. 1455, Geneva, Switzerland, p 27Google Scholar
  39. Zhao M, Held IM, Vecchi GA (2010) Retrospective forecasts of the hurricane season using a global atmospheric model assuming persistence of SST anomalies. Mon Weather Rev 138:3858–3868CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2017

Authors and Affiliations

  • Julia V. Manganello
    • 1
    Email author
  • Benjamin A. Cash
    • 1
  • Kevin I. Hodges
    • 2
  • James L. KinterIII
    • 1
    • 3
  1. 1.Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies (COLA)George Mason University (GMU)FairfaxUSA
  2. 2.Department of MeteorologyUniversity of ReadingReadingUK
  3. 3.George Mason University (GMU)FairfaxUSA

Personalised recommendations