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Climate Dynamics

, Volume 51, Issue 11–12, pp 4585–4600 | Cite as

Seasonal prediction of the typhoon genesis frequency over the Western North Pacific with a Poisson regression model

  • Xinchang Zhang
  • Shanshan ZhongEmail author
  • Zhiwei Wu
  • Yun Li
Article

Abstract

This study investigates the typhoon genesis frequency (TGF) in the dominant season (July to October) in Western North Pacific (WNP) using observed data in 1965–2015. Of particular interest is the predictability of the TGF and associated preseason sea surface temperature (SST) in the Pacific. It is found that, the TGF is positively related to a tri-polar pattern of April SST anomalies in North Pacific (\({\text{NP}}{{\text{T}}_{{\text{Apr}}}}\)), while it is negatively related to SST anomalies over the Coral Sea (\({\text{CSS}}{{\text{T}}_{{\text{Apr}}}}\)) off east coast of Australia. The \({\text{NP}}{{\text{T}}_{{\text{Apr}}}}\) leads to large anomalous cyclonic circulation over North Pacific. The anomalous southwesterly weakens the northeast trade wind, decreases evaporation, and induces warm water in central tropical North Pacific. As such, the warming effect amplifies the temperature gradient in central tropical North Pacific, which in turn maintains the cyclonic wind anomaly in the west tropical Pacific, which favors the typhoon genesis in WNP. In the South Pacific, the \({\text{CSS}}{{\text{T}}_{{\text{Apr}}}}\) supports the typhoon formation over the WNP by (a) strengthening the cross-equatorial flows and enhancing the Inter-tropical Convergence Zone; (b) weakening southeast and northeast trade wind, and keeping continuous warming in the center of tropical Pacific. The influence of both \({\text{NP}}{{\text{T}}_{{\text{Apr}}}}\) and \({\text{CSS}}{{\text{T}}_{{\text{Apr}}}}\) can persistently affect the zonal wind in the tropical Pacific and induce conditions favorable for the typhoon genesis in the typhoon season. A Poisson regression model using \({\text{NP}}{{\text{T}}_{{\text{Apr}}}}\)and \({\text{CSS}}{{\text{T}}_{{\text{Apr}}}}\)is developed to predict the TGF and a promising skill is achieved.

Keywords

Typhoon genesis frequency Western North Pacific Prediction Poisson regression 

Notes

Acknowledgements

This study is jointly supported by the Ministry of Science and Technology of China (Grant No. 2016YFA0601801), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41575052, 41205066, 91437216, 41575075 and 91637312), the China Special Fund for Meteorological Research in the Public Interest (No. GYHY201406018), and a Project Funded by the Priority Academic Program Development (PAPD) of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions. Shanshan Zhong received support from China Scholarship Council under the visiting scholar program for conducting research at CSIRO in Australia.

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Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2017

Authors and Affiliations

  • Xinchang Zhang
    • 1
  • Shanshan Zhong
    • 1
    Email author
  • Zhiwei Wu
    • 2
  • Yun Li
    • 3
  1. 1.Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education (KLME), Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change (ILCEC), Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters (CIC-FEMD)Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjingChina
  2. 2.Institute of Atmospheric SciencesFudan UniversityShanghaiChina
  3. 3.Business Intelligence and Data AnalyticsWestern PowerPerthAustralia

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