Climate Dynamics

, Volume 51, Issue 11–12, pp 4601–4617 | Cite as

Future changes in precipitation over East Asia projected by the global atmospheric model MRI-AGCM3.2

  • Shoji KusunokiEmail author


We conducted global warming projections using global atmospheric models with high-horizontal resolution of 20-km (MRI-AGCM3.2S, the 20-km model) and 60-km (MRI-AGCM3.2H, the 60-km model) grid sizes. For the present-day climate of 21 years from 1983 to 2003, models were forced with observed historical sea surface temperatures (SST). For the future climate of 21 years from 2079 to 2099, models were forced with future SST distributions projected by the models of the Fifth phase of Couple Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Ensemble simulations for four different SST distributions and three different cumulus convection schemes were conducted to evaluate the uncertainty of projection. The simulations consistently project the increase of precipitation over eastern China for almost all months. In June, precipitation decreases over Japan and increases over the ocean to the south of Japan. The geographical distribution of precipitation change tends to depend relatively on the cumulus convection scheme and horizontal resolution of models rather than on SST distributions. The time evolution of pentad mean precipitation over Japan indicates the delay in the onset of Japanese rainy season in June. This delay can be attributed to the decrease of water vapor transport toward Japan associated with the southward shift of the subtropical high. Change in the subtropical high can be interpreted as the southward shift of the local Hadley circulation. The intensity of precipitation increases over most part of East Asia, while the possibility of drought will increase over Japan, the East China Sea and the area to the south of Japan.


Precipitation East Asia Global warming projection Japanese rainy season 



This work was conducted under the framework of “The Development of Basic Technology for Risk Information on Climate Change” supported by the SOUSEI Program of the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science, and Technology (MEXT) of Japan. We also thank anonymous reviewers whose valuable comments and suggestions greatly improved the manuscript. Thanks are extended to the support and collaboration by Drs. R. Mizuta, K. Yoshida, O. Arakawa, T. Ose, A. Kitoh and I. Takayabu.

Supplementary material

382_2016_3499_MOESM1_ESM.docx (594 kb)
Supplementary material 1 (DOCX 594 KB)


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© Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2017

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Climate Research DepartmentMeteorological Research InstituteTsukubaJapan

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