Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

Simulation of medicanes over the Mediterranean Sea in a regional climate model ensemble: impact of ocean–atmosphere coupling and increased resolution

  • Published:
Climate Dynamics Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Medicanes are cyclones over the Mediterranean Sea having a tropical-like structure but a rather small size, that can produce significant damage due to the combination of intense winds and heavy precipitation. Future climate projections, performed generally with individual atmospheric climate models, indicate that the intensity of the medicanes could increase under climate change conditions. The availability of large ensembles of high resolution and ocean–atmosphere coupled regional climate model (RCM) simulations, performed in MedCORDEX and EURO-CORDEX projects, represents an opportunity to improve the assessment of the impact of climate change on medicanes. As a first step towards such an improved assessment, we analyze the ability of the RCMs used in these projects to reproduce the observed characteristics of medicanes, and the impact of increased resolution and air-sea coupling on their simulation. In these storms, air-sea interaction plays a fundamental role in their formation and intensification, a different mechanism from that of extra-tropical cyclones, where the baroclinic instability mechanism prevails. An observational database, based on satellite images combined with high resolution simulations (Miglietta et al. in Geophys Res Lett 40:2400–2405, 2013), is used as a reference for evaluating the simulations. In general, the simulated medicanes do not coincide on a case-by-case basis with the observed medicanes. However, observed medicanes with a high intensity and relatively long duration of tropical characteristics are better replicated in simulations. The observed spatial distribution of medicanes is generally well simulated, while the monthly distribution reveals the difficulty of simulating the medicanes that first appear in September after the summer minimum in occurrence. Increasing the horizontal resolution has a systematic and generally positive impact on the frequency of simulated medicanes, while the general underestimation of their intensity is not corrected in most cases. The capacity of a few models to better simulate the medicane intensity suggests that the model formulation is more important than reducing the grid spacing alone. A negative intensity feedback is frequently the result of air-sea interaction for tropical cyclones in other basins. The introduction of air-sea coupling in the present simulations has an overall limited impact on medicane frequency and intensity, but it produces an interesting seasonal shift of the simulated medicanes from autumn to winter. This fact, together with the analysis of two contrasting particular cases, indicates that the negative feedback could be limited or even absent in certain situations. We suggest that the effects of air-sea interaction on medicanes may depend on the oceanic mixed layer depth, thus increasing the applicability of ocean–atmosphere coupled RCMs for climate change analysis of this kind of cyclones.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7
Fig. 8
Fig. 9
Fig. 10

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Adloff F, Somot S, Sevault F et al (2015) Mediterranean sea response to climate change in an ensemble of twenty first century scenarios. Clim Dyn 45:2775–2802

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Akhtar N, Brauch J, Dobler A et al (2014) Medicanes in an ocean–atmosphere coupled regional climate model. Nat Hazards Earth Syst Sci 14:2189–2201

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Artale V, Calmanti S, Carillo A et al (2010) An atmosphere–ocean regional climate model for the Mediterranean area: assessment of a present climate simulation. Clim Dyn 35:721–740

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Brossier CL, Bastin S, Béranger K, Drobinski P (2015) Regional mesoscale air–sea coupling impacts and extreme meteorological events role on the Mediterranean Sea water budget. Clim Dyn 44:1029–1051

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cavicchia L, von Storch H, Gualdi S (2013) A long-term climatology of medicanes. Clim Dyn 43:1183–1195

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cavicchia L, von Storch H, Gualdi S (2014) Mediterranean tropical-like cyclones in present and future climate. J Clim 27:7493–7501

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chaboureau JP, Pantillon F, Lambert D et al (2012) Tropical transition of a Mediterranean storm by jet crossing. Q J R Meteorol Soc 138:596–611

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Colin J, Déqué M, Radu R, Somot S (2010) Sensitivity study of heavy precipitation in limited area model climate simulations: influence of the size of the domain and the use of the spectral nudging technique. Tellus A 62:591–604

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • D’Ortenzio F (2005) Seasonal variability of the mixed layer depth in the Mediterranean Sea as derived from in situ profiles. Geophys Res Lett 32:L12605

    Google Scholar 

  • Davis CA, Bosart LF (2004) The TT problem: forecasting the tropical transition of cyclones. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 85:1657–1662

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Domínguez M, Gaertner MA, De Rosnay P, Losada T (2010) A regional climate model simulation over West Africa: parameterization tests and analysis of land-surface fields. Clim Dyn 35:249–265

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Domínguez M, Romera R, Sánchez E et al (2013) Present-climate precipitation and temperature extremes over Spain from a set of high resolution RCMs. Clim Res 58:149–164

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Emanuel KA (1987) An air-sea interaction model of intraseasonal oscillations in the tropics. J Atmos Sci 44:2324–2340

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Emanuel KA (1999) Thermodynamic control of hurricane intensity. Nature 401:665–669

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Emanuel K (2005) Genesis and maintenance of “Mediterranean hurricanes”. Adv Geosci 2:217–220

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Evans JL, Braun A (2012) A climatology of subtropical cyclones in the South Atlantic. J Clim 25:7328–7340

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fita L, Romero R, Luque A et al (2007) Analysis of the environments of seven Mediterranean tropical-like storms using an axisymmetric, nonhydrostatic, cloud resolving model. Nat Hazard Earth Sys 7:41–56

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Flaounas E, Drobinski P, Vrac M et al (2013) Precipitation and temperature space–time variability and extremes in the Mediterranean region: evaluation of dynamical and statistical downscaling methods. Clim Dyn 40:2687–2705

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gaertner MA, Jacob D, Gil V et al (2007) Tropical cyclones over the Mediterranean Sea in climate change simulations. Geophys Res Lett 34:L14711

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Garde LA, Pezza AB, Tristram Bye JA (2010) Tropical transition of the 2001 Australian duck. Mon Weather Rev 138:2038–2057

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • González-Alemán JJ, Valero F, Martín-León F, Evans JL (2015) Classification and synoptic analysis of subtropical cyclones within the northeastern Atlantic Ocean. J Clim 28:3331–3352

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Guishard MP, Evans JL, Hart RE (2009) Atlantic subtropical storms Part II: climatology. J Clim 22:3574–3594

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hart RE (2003) A cyclone phase space derived from thermal wind and thermal asymmetry. Mon Weather Rev 131:585–616

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Herrmann M, Somot S, Calmanti S et al (2011) Representation of spatial and temporal variability of daily wind speed and of intense wind events over the Mediterranean Sea using dynamical downscaling: impact of the regional climate model configuration. Nat Hazard Earth Syst 11:1983–2001

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Homar V, Romero R, Stensrud DJ et al (2003) Numerical diagnosis of a small, quasi-tropical cyclone over the western Mediterranean: dynamical vs. boundary factors. Q J R Meteorol Soc 129:1469–1490

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Jacob D, Elizalde A, Haensler A et al (2012) Assessing the transferability of the regional climate model REMO to different coordinated regional climate downscaling experiment (CORDEX) regions. Atmosphere 3:181–199

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Jacob D, Petersen J, Eggert B et al (2014) EURO-CORDEX: new high-resolution climate change projections for European impact research. Reg Environ Chang 14:563–578

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kossin JP, Emanuel KA, Vecchi GA (2014) The poleward migration of the location of tropical cyclone maximum intensity. Nature 509:349–352

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kothe S, Panitz H-J, Ahrens B (2014) Analysis of the radiation budget in regional climate simulations with COSMO-CLM for Africa. Meteorol Z : 123–141

  • Kupiainen M, Samuelsson P, Jones C, et al (2011) Rossby centre regional atmospheric model, RCA4. Rossby Center News Letter

  • Miglietta MM, Laviola S, Malvaldi A et al (2013) Analysis of tropical-like cyclones over the Mediterranean Sea through a combined modeling and satellite approach. Geophys Res Lett 40:2400–2405

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Moscatello A, Miglietta MM, Rotunno R (2008) Observational analysis of a Mediterranean “hurricane” over south-eastern Italy. Weather 63:306–311

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Moufouma-Okia W, Jones R (2014) Resolution dependence in simulating the African hydroclimate with the HadGEM3-RA regional climate model. Clim Dyn 44:609–632

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Picornell MA, Jansa A, Genovés A, Campins J (2001) Automated database of mesocyclones from the HIRLAM (INM)-0.5° analyses in the western Mediterranean. Int J Climatol 21:335–354

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pytharoulis I, Craig G, Ballard S (2000) The hurricane-like Mediterranean cyclone of January 1995. Meteorol Appl 7:261–279

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Reale O, Atlas R (2001) Tropical cyclone-like vortices in the extratropics: observational evidence and synoptic analysis. Weather Forecast 16:7–34

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rockel B, Will A, Hense A (2008) The regional climate model COSMO-CLM (CCLM). Meteorol Z 17:347–348

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Romero R, Emanuel K (2013) Medicane risk in a changing climate. J Geophys Res Atmos 118:5992–6001

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ruti PM, Somot S, Giorgi F et al (2015) MED-CORDEX initiative for Mediterranean climate studies. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 97:1187–1208

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Samuelsson P, Jones CG, Willén U et al (2011) The Rossby centre regional climate model RCA3: model description and performance. Tellus A 63:4–23

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sein DV, Mikolajewicz U, Gröger M et al (2015) Regionally coupled atmosphere-ocean-sea ice-marine biogeochemistry model ROM: 1. description and validation. J Adv Model Earth Syst 7:268–304

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sevault F, Somot S, Alias A et al (2014) A fully coupled Mediterranean regional climate system model: design and evaluation of the ocean component for the 1980–2012 period. Tellus A 66:23967

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Shay LK, Goni GJ, Black PG (2000) Effects of a warm oceanic feature on hurricane opal. Mon Weather Rev 128:1366–1383

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Skamarock WC, Klemp JB, Dudhia J et al (2008) A description of the advanced research WRF version 3, NCAR, Tech. Note, Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology Division

  • Stéfanon M, Drobinski P, D’Andrea F et al (2014) Soil moisture-temperature feedbacks at meso-scale during summer heat waves over Western Europe. Clim Dyn 42:1309–1324

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tous M, Romero R (2013) Meteorological environments associated with medicane development. Int J Climatol 33:1–14

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tous M, Zappa G, Romero R et al (2016) Projected changes in medicanes in the HadGEM3 N512 high-resolution global climate model. Clim Dyn 47:1913–1924

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • van Meijgaard E, van Ulft L, Lenderink G et al (2012) Refinement and application of a regional atmospheric model for climate scenario calculations of Western Europe. Climate changes spatial planning publication: KvR 054/12. ISBN: 978-90-8815-046-3, p 44. http://climexp.knmi.nl/publications/FinalReport_KvR-CS06.pdf

  • Vautard R, Gobiet A, Jacob D et al (2013) The simulation of European heat waves from an ensemble of regional climate models within the EURO-CORDEX project. Clim Dyn 41:2555–2575

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Walsh KJE, Fiorino M, Landsea CW, McInnes KL (2007) Objectively determined resolution-dependent threshold criteria for the detection of tropical cyclones in climate models and reanalyses. J Clim 20:2307–2314

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Walsh KJE, Giorgi F, Coppola E (2014) Mediterranean warm-core cyclones in a warmer world. Clim Dyn 42:1053–1066

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Walsh KJE, Mcbride JL, Klotzbach PJ et al (2016) Tropical cyclones and climate change. WIREs Clim Change 7:65–89

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

This work is part of the Med-CORDEX initiative (www.medcordex.eu) supported by the HyMeX programme (www.hymex.org). Part of the data used in this work have been downloaded from the Med-CORDEX database (www.medcordex.eu). The authors like to thank the coordination and participating institutes of the EURO-CORDEX initiative (www.euro-cordex.net). The work of UCLM group has been funded by the grant CGL2010-18013 (Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation) and grant CGL2013-47261-R (Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitivity). These grants have been co-funded by the European Regional Development Fund. AWI simulations were performed at the German Climate Computing Center (DKRZ). The work of Dmitry Sein was supported by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) under the project SPACES-AGULHAS (research Grant 03G0835B). The REMO (GERICS) simulations were supported by BMBF and performed under the ‘‘Konsortial’’ share at the German Climate Computing Centre (DKRZ). Bodo Ahrens acknowledges support from Senckenberg BiK-F. The calculations for WRF IPSL-INERIS were made in collaboration with R. Vautard (IPSL/CNRS) using the TGCC super computers under the GENCI time allocation GEN6877. The work of Sophie Bastin has received funding from the French National Research Agency (ANR) projects REMEMBER (Contract ANR-12-SENV-001) and  granted access to the HPC resources of IDRIS (under allocation i2011010227). The KNMI-RACMO2 simulations were supported  by the Dutch Ministry of Infrastructure and the Environment. Part of the SMHI contribution was carried out in the Swedish Mistra-SWECIA programme founded by Mistra (the Foundation for Strategic Environmental Research).

Author information

Author notes

    Authors and Affiliations

    1. Universidad de Castilla-La Mancha, Toledo, Spain

      Miguel Ángel Gaertner, Juan Jesús González-Alemán, Raquel Romera, Marta Domínguez, Victoria Gil, Enrique Sánchez & Clemente Gallardo

    2. Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate - National Research Council (ISAC-CNR), Lecce, Italy

      Mario Marcello Miglietta

    3. University of Melbourne, Parkville, Australia

      Kevin J. E. Walsh

    4. Alfred Wegener Institute, Bremerhaven, Germany

      Dmitry V. Sein

    5. CNRM UMR 3589, Météo-France/CNRS, Toulouse, France

      Samuel Somot

    6. ENEA, SSPT-MET-CLIM, Rome, Italy

      Alessandro Dell’Aquila

    7. Climate Service Center Germany (GERICS), Hamburg, Germany

      Claas Teichmann

    8. Institute for Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences, Goethe-University Frankfurt, Frankfurt am Main, Germany

      Bodo Ahrens

    9. Met Office-Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom

      Erasmo Buonomo

    10. Institut National de l′Environnement Industriel et des Risques (INERIS), Verneuil-en-Halatte, France

      Augustin Colette

    11. LATMOS/IPSL, CNRS/INSU, UVSQ Université Paris‑Saclay, UPMC Univ. Paris 06, Guyancourt, France

      Sophie Bastin

    12. Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), De Bilt, The Netherlands

      Erik van Meijgaard

    13. Rossby Centre, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Norrköping, Sweden

      Grigory Nikulin

    Authors
    1. Miguel Ángel Gaertner
      View author publications

      You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

    2. Juan Jesús González-Alemán
      View author publications

      You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

    3. Raquel Romera
      View author publications

      You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

    4. Marta Domínguez
      View author publications

      You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

    5. Victoria Gil
      View author publications

      You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

    6. Enrique Sánchez
      View author publications

      You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

    7. Clemente Gallardo
      View author publications

      You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

    8. Mario Marcello Miglietta
      View author publications

      You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

    9. Kevin J. E. Walsh
      View author publications

      You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

    10. Dmitry V. Sein
      View author publications

      You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

    11. Samuel Somot
      View author publications

      You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

    12. Alessandro Dell’Aquila
      View author publications

      You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

    13. Claas Teichmann
      View author publications

      You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

    14. Bodo Ahrens
      View author publications

      You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

    15. Erasmo Buonomo
      View author publications

      You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

    16. Augustin Colette
      View author publications

      You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

    17. Sophie Bastin
      View author publications

      You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

    18. Erik van Meijgaard
      View author publications

      You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

    19. Grigory Nikulin
      View author publications

      You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

    Corresponding author

    Correspondence to Miguel Ángel Gaertner.

    Additional information

    This paper is a contribution to the special issue on Med-CORDEX, an international coordinated initiative dedicated to the multi-component regional climate modelling (atmosphere, ocean, land surface, river) of the Mediterranean under the umbrella of HyMeX, CORDEX, and Med-CLIVAR and coordinated by Samuel Somot, Paolo Ruti, Erika Coppola, Gianmaria Sannino, Bodo Ahrens, and Gabriel Jordà.

    Rights and permissions

    Reprints and permissions

    About this article

    Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

    Cite this article

    Gaertner, M.Á., González-Alemán, J.J., Romera, R. et al. Simulation of medicanes over the Mediterranean Sea in a regional climate model ensemble: impact of ocean–atmosphere coupling and increased resolution. Clim Dyn 51, 1041–1057 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3456-1

    Download citation

    • Received:

    • Accepted:

    • Published:

    • Issue Date:

    • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3456-1

    Keywords

    Search

    Navigation