Advertisement

Climate Dynamics

, Volume 48, Issue 9–10, pp 3047–3060 | Cite as

Evidence of global warming impact on the evolution of the Hadley Circulation in ECMWF centennial reanalyses

  • Roberta D’AgostinoEmail author
  • Piero Lionello
Article

Abstract

This study analyzes the evolution of the Hadley Circulation (HC) during the twentieth century in ERA-20CM (AMIP-experiment) and ERA-20C (reanalysis). These two recent ECMWF products provide the opportunity for a new analysis of the HC trends and of their uncertainties. Further, the effect of sea surface temperature forcing (including its uncertainty) and data assimilation are investigated. Also the ECMWF reanalysis ERA-Interim, for the period 1979–2010, is considered for a complementary analysis. Datasets present important differences in characteristics and trends of the HC. In ERA-20C HC is weaker (especially the Southern Hemisphere HC) and the whole Northern Hemisphere HC is located more southward than in ERA-20CM (especially in the boreal summer). In ERA-Interim HC is stronger and wider than both other simulations. In general, the magnitude of trends is larger and more statistically significant in ERA-20C than in ERA-20CM. The presence of large multidecadal variability across twentieth century raises doubts on the interpretation of recent behavior, such as the onset of sustained long term trends, particularly for the HC strength. In spite of this, the southward shift of the Southern Edge and widening of the Southern Hemisphere HC appear robust features in all datasets, and their trends have accelerated in the last three decades, but actual expansion rates remain affected by considerable uncertainty. Inconsistencies between datasets are attributed to the different reproduction of the links between the HC width and factors affecting it (such as mean global temperature, tropopause height, meridional temperature contrast and planetary waves), which appear more robust in ERA-20CM than in ERA-20C, particularly for the two latter factors. Further, in ERA-Interim these correlations are not statistically significant. These outcomes suggest that data assimilation degrades the links between the HC and features influencing its dynamics.

Keywords

ERA-20CM/C ERA-Interim Hadley Circulation Global warming Twentieth century Trends 

Notes

Acknowledgments

We would like to thank Tapio Schneider and the three anonymous reviewers for helpful comments on the draft manuscript.

References

  1. Adam O, Schneider T, Harnik N (2014) Role of changes in mean temperatures versus temperature gradients in the recent widening of the Hadley circulation. J Clim 27(19):7450–7461CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  2. Allen RJ, Norris JR, Kovilakam M (2014) Influence of anthropogenic aerosols and the pacific decadal oscillation on tropical belt width. Nat Geosci 7(4):270–274CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  3. Allen RJ, Sherwood SC, Norris JR, Zender CS (2012) Recent northern hemisphere tropical expansion primarily driven by black carbon and tropospheric ozone. Nature 485(7398):350–354CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  4. Bengtsson L, Hodges KI, Hagemann S (2004) Sensitivity of large-scale atmospheric analyses to humidity observations and its impact on the global water cycle and tropical and extratropical weather systems in era40. Tellus A 56(3):202–217CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  5. Biasutti M, Giannini A (2006) Robust Sahel drying in response to late 20th century forcings. Geophys Res Lett 33:L11706. doi: 10.1029/2006GL026067 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  6. Brönnimann S, Fischer AM, Rozanov E, Poli P, Compo GP, Sardeshmukh PD (2015) Southward shift of the northern tropical belt from 1945 to 1980. Nat Geosci 8(12): doi: 10.1038/ngeo2568
  7. Caballero R (2007) Role of eddies in the interannual variability of Hadley cell strength. Geophys Res Lett 34:L22705. doi: 10.1029/2007GL030971 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  8. Cai W, Cowan T, Thatcher M (2012) Rainfall reductions over Southern Hemisphere semi-arid regions: the role of subtropical dry zone expansion. Sci Rep 2:702CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  9. Ceppi P, Hwang Y-T, Liu X, Frierson DM, Hartmann DL (2013) The relationship between the itcz and the southern hemispheric eddy-driven jet. J Geophy Res Atmos 118(11):5136–5146CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  10. Chiang JC, Friedman AR (2012) Extratropical cooling, interhemispheric thermal gradients, and tropical climate change. Ann Rev Earth Planet Sci 40:383–412CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  11. Compo GP, Whitaker JS, Sardeshmukh PD, Matsui N, Allan RJ, Yin X, Gleason BE, Vose R, Rutledge G, Bessemoulin P et al (2011) The twentieth century reanalysis project. Q J R Meteorol Soc 137(654):1–28CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  12. Davis SM, Rosenlof KH (2012) A multidiagnostic intercomparison of tropical-width time series using reanalyses and satellite observations. J Clim 25(4):1061–1078CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  13. Dee D, Uppala S, Simmons A, Berrisford P, Poli P, Kobayashi S, Andrae U, Balmaseda M, Balsamo G, Bauer P et al (2011) The era-interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the data assimilation system. Q J R Meteorol Soc 137(656):553–597CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  14. Deser C, Phillips A, Bourdette V, Teng H (2012) Uncertainty in climate change projections: the role of internal variability. Clim Dyn 38(3–4):527–546CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  15. Diaz HF, Bradley RS (2004) The Hadley circulation: present, past, and future. Springer, BerlinCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  16. Giannini A, Saravanan R, Chang P (2003) Oceanic forcing of sahel rainfall on interannual to interdecadal time scales. Science 302(5647):1027–1030CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  17. Held IM (2000) The general circulation of the atmosphere. In: Program in Geophysical Fluid Dynamics. WoodsHole Oceanographic Institute, Woods Hole, MA. http://gfd.whoi.edu/proceedings/2000/PDFvol2000.html
  18. Held IM, Soden BJ (2006) Robust responses of the hydrological cycle to global warming. J Clim 19(21):5686–5699CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  19. Hersbach H, Peubey C, Simmons A, Berrisford P, Poli P, Dee D (2015) Era-20cm: a twentieth-century atmospheric model ensemble. Q J R Meteorol SocGoogle Scholar
  20. Holton JR, Hakim GJ (2012) An introduction to dynamic meteorology. Academic Press, LondonGoogle Scholar
  21. Hu Y, Fu Q (2007) Observed poleward expansion of the Hadley circulation since 1979. Atmos Chem Phys 7(19):5229–5236CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  22. Hu Y, Tao L, Liu J (2013) Poleward expansion of the Hadley circulation in CMIP5 simulations. Adv Atmos Sci 30:790–795CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  23. Huber P (1981) Robust statistics. Wiley, New York, p 308CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  24. Hwang Y-T, Frierson DM, Kang SM (2013) Anthropogenic sulfate aerosol and the southward shift of tropical precipitation in the late 20th century. Geophys Res Lett 40(11):2845–2850CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  25. Irving D, Simmonds I (2015) A novel approach to diagnosing southern hemisphere planetary wave activity and its influence on regional climate variability. J ClimGoogle Scholar
  26. Johanson CM, Fu Q (2009) Hadley cell widening: model simulations versus observations. J ClimGoogle Scholar
  27. Kang SM, Deser C, Polvani LM (2013) Uncertainty in climate change projections of the Hadley circulation: the role of internal variability. J Clim 26(19):7541–7554CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  28. Korty RL, Schneider T (2008) Extent of Hadley circulations in dry atmospheres. Geophys Res Lett 35:L23803. doi: 10.1029/2008GL035847 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  29. Levine XJ, Schneider T (2015) Baroclinic eddies and the extent of the Hadley circulation: An idealized gcm study. J Atmos SciGoogle Scholar
  30. Liu J, Song M, Hu Y, Ren X (2012) Changes in the strength and width of the Hadley circulation since 1871. Clim Past Disc 8:C511–C511Google Scholar
  31. Lu J, Delworth TL (2005) Oceanic forcing of the late 20th century Sahel drought. Geophys Res Lett 32:L22706CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  32. Lu J, Vecchi GA, Reichler T (2007) Expansion of the Hadley cell under global warming. Geophys Res Lett 34:L06805. doi: 10.1029/2006GL028443 Google Scholar
  33. Lu J, Chen G, Frierson DMW (2008) Response of the zonal mean atmospheric circulation to El Niño versus global warming. J Clim 21:5835–5851CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  34. Lu J, Deser C, Reichler T (2009) Cause of the widening of the tropical belt since 1958. Geophys Res Lett 36:L03803CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  35. Mitas CM, Clement A (2005) Has the Hadley cell been strengthening in recent decades? Geophys Res Lett 32(3):L03809CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  36. Mitas CM, Clement A (2006) Recent behavior of the Hadley cell and tropical thermodynamics in climate models and reanalyses. Geophys Res Lett 33:L01810. doi: 10.1029/2005GL024406 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  37. Mantsis DF, Clement AC (2009) Simulated variability in the mean atmospheric meridional circulation over the 20th century. Geophys Res Lett 36(6). doi: 10.1029/2008GL036741
  38. Nguyen H, Evans A, Lucas C, Smith I, Timbal B (2013) The Hadley circulation in reanalyses: climatology, variability, and change. J Clim 26:3357–3376CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  39. Oort AH, Rasmusson EM (1970) On the annual variation of the monthly mean meridional circulation. Monthly Weather Rev 98(6):423–442CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  40. Oort AH, Yienger JJ (1996) Observed interannual variability in the Hadley circulation and its connection to enso. J Clim 9(11):2751–2767CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  41. Poli P, Dee D, Berrisford P, Thépaut J-N (2010) Overview of satellite data assimilation in the era-interim reanalysis. In: Proceedings of 2010 EUMETSAT meteorological satellite conference, pp 1–8Google Scholar
  42. Poli P, Hersbach H, Berrisford P, Dee D, Simmons A, Laloyaux P (2015) ERA-20C deterministic. ERA Report Series No. 20Google Scholar
  43. Poli P, Hersbach H, Dee DP, Berrisford P, Simmons AJ, Vitart F, Laloyaux P, Tan DG, Peubey C, Thépaut J-N, et al. (2016) Era-20c: an atmospheric reanalysis of the 20th century. J ClimGoogle Scholar
  44. Polvani LM, Waugh DW, Correa GJ, Son S-W (2011) Stratospheric ozone depletion: the main driver of twentieth-century atmospheric circulation changes in the southern hemisphere. J Clim 24(3):795–812CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  45. Reichler T (2009) Changes in the atmospheric circulation as indicator of climate change. In: Climate change: observed impacts on planet earth, pp 145–164Google Scholar
  46. Reichler T, Dameris M, Sausen R (2003) Determining the tropopause height from gridded data. Geophys Res Lett 30:2042–2046CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  47. Schneider T, Bischoff T, Haug GH (2014) Migrations and dynamics of the intertropical convergence zone. Nature 513(7516):45–53CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  48. Schneider T, Bischoff T, Płotka H (2015) Physics of changes in synoptic midlatitude temperature variability. J Clim 28(6):2312–2331CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  49. Seager R, Ting M, Held I, Kushnir Y, Lu J, Vecchi G, Huang H-P, Harnik N, Leetmaa A, Lau N-C et al (2007) Model projections of an imminent transition to a more arid climate in southwestern north america. Science 316(5828):1181–1184CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  50. Seidel DJ, Fu Q, Randel WJ, Reichler TJ (2007) Widening of the tropical belt in a changing climate. Nat Geosci 1(1):21–24Google Scholar
  51. Seo K-H, Frierson DM, Son J-H (2014) A mechanism for future changes in Hadley circulation strength in cmip5 climate change simulations. Geophys Res Lett 41(14):5251–5258CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  52. Son S-W, Polvani L, Waugh D, Akiyoshi H, Garcia R, Kinnison D, Pawson S, Rozanov E, Shepherd T, Shibata K (2008) The impact of stratospheric ozone recovery on the Southern Hemisphere westerly jet. Science 320(5882):1486–1489CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  53. Son S-W, Tandon NF, Polvani LM, Waugh DW (2009) Ozone hole and Southern Hemisphere climate change. Geophys Res Lett 36:L15705. doi: 10.1029/2009GL038671 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  54. Son S-W, Gerber E, Perlwitz J, Polvani LM, Gillett N, Seo K-H, Eyring V, Shepherd T, Waugh D, Akiyoshi H et al (2010) Impact of stratospheric ozone on Southern Hemisphere circulation change: a multimodel assessment. J Geophys Res Atmos 115:D00M07.Google Scholar
  55. Tanaka H, Ishizaki N, Kitoh A (2004) Trend and interannual variability of walker, monsoon and Hadley circulations defined by velocity potential in the upper troposphere. Tellus A 56(3):250–269CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  56. Tanaka H, Ishizaki N, Nohara D (2005) Intercomparison of the intensities and trends of Hadley, walker and monsoon circulations in the global warming projections. SOLA 1:77–80CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  57. Trenberth KE (1991) Climate diagnostics from global analyses: conservation of mass in ecmwf analyses. J Clim 4(7):707–722CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  58. Trenberth KE, Stepaniak DP, Caron JM (2000) The global monsoon as seen through the divergent atmospheric circulation. J Clim 13(22):3969–3993CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  59. Vecchi GA, Soden BJ (2007) Global warming and the weakening of the tropical circulation. J Clim 20(17):4316–4340CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  60. Von Storch H, Zwiers FW (2001) Statistical analysis in climate research. Cambridge University Press, CambridgeGoogle Scholar
  61. Walker CC, Schneider T (2005) Response of idealized Hadley circulations to seasonally varying heating. Geophys Res Lett 32:L06813CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  62. Walker CC, Schneider T (2006) Eddy influences on Hadley circulations: simulations with an idealized gcm. J Atmos Sci 63(12):3333–3350CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  63. Waugh DW, Garfinkel CI, Polvani LM (2015) Drivers of the recent tropical expansion in the southern hemisphere: Changing SSTS or ozone depletion? J Clim 28(16):6581–6586CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2016

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.University of SalentoLecceItaly
  2. 2.CMCC, Euro-Mediterranean Centre on Climate ChangeLecceItaly

Personalised recommendations