Climate Dynamics

, Volume 48, Issue 1–2, pp 353–366 | Cite as

On the robustness of near term climate predictability regarding initial state uncertainties

  • Agathe Germe
  • Florian Sévellec
  • Juliette Mignot
  • Didier Swingedouw
  • Sebastien Nguyen
Article

Abstract

A set of four ensemble simulations has been designed to assess the relative importance of atmospheric, oceanic, and deep ocean initial state uncertainties, as represented by spatial white noise perturbations, on seasonal to decadal prediction skills in a perfect model framework. It is found that a perturbation mimicking random oceanic uncertainties have the same impact as an atmospheric-only perturbation on the future evolution of the ensemble after the first 3 months, even if they are initially only located in the deep ocean. This is due to the fast (1 month) perturbation of the atmospheric component regardless of the initial ensemble generation strategy. The divergence of the ensemble upper-ocean characteristics is then mainly induced by ocean–atmosphere interactions. While the seasonally varying mixed layer depth allows the penetration of the different signals in the thermocline in the mid-high latitudes, the rapid adjustment of the thermocline to wind anomalies followed by Kelvin and Rossby waves adjustment dominates the growth of the ensemble spread in the tropics. These mechanisms result in similar ensemble distribution characteristics for the four ensembles design strategy at the interannual timescale.

Keywords

Climate predictability Uncertainties Ensemble spread Initial condition perturbation Prediction reliability Ensemble generation 

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Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2016

Authors and Affiliations

  • Agathe Germe
    • 1
  • Florian Sévellec
    • 2
  • Juliette Mignot
    • 1
    • 3
  • Didier Swingedouw
    • 4
  • Sebastien Nguyen
    • 1
  1. 1.LOCEAN Laboratory-IPSLSorbonne Universités (UPMC, Univ Paris 06)-CNRS-IRD-MNHNParisFrance
  2. 2.Ocean and Earth ScienceUniversity of SouthamptonSouthamptonUK
  3. 3.Climate and Environmental Physics and Oeschger Centre for Climate Change ResearchUniversity of BernBernSwitzerland
  4. 4.Environnements et Paléoenvironnements Océaniques et Continentaux (EPOC)UMR CNRS 5805 EPOC - OASU - Université de BordeauxPessacFrance

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