Climate Dynamics

, Volume 48, Issue 1–2, pp 209–224 | Cite as

The statistical extended-range (10–30-day) forecast of summer rainfall anomalies over the entire China

Article

Abstract

The extended-range (10–30-day) rainfall forecast over the entire China was carried out using spatial–temporal projection models (STPMs). Using a rotated empirical orthogonal function analysis of intraseasonal (10–80-day) rainfall anomalies, China is divided into ten sub-regions. Different predictability sources were selected for each of the ten regions. The forecast skills are ranked for each region. Based on temporal correlation coefficient (TCC) and Gerrity skill score, useful skills are found for most parts of China at a 20–25-day lead. The southern China and the mid-lower reaches of Yangtze River Valley show the highest predictive skills, whereas southwestern China and Huang-Huai region have the lowest predictive skills. By combining forecast results from ten regional STPMs, the TCC distribution of 8-year (2003–2010) independent forecast for the entire China is investigated. The combined forecast results from ten STPMs show significantly higher skills than the forecast with just one single STPM for the entire China. Independent forecast examples of summer rainfall anomalies around the period of Beijing Olympic Games in 2008 and Shanghai World Expo in 2010 are presented. The result shows that the current model is able to reproduce the gross pattern of the summer intraseasonal rainfall over China at a 20-day lead. The present study provides, for the first time, a guide on the statistical extended-range forecast of summer rainfall anomalies for the entire China. It is anticipated that the ideas and methods proposed here will facilitate the extended-range forecast in China.

Keywords

Extended-range forecast Summer rainfall anomalies over China Spatial–temporal projection model Intraseasonal oscillation 

Notes

Acknowledgements

The authors thank two anonymous reviewers for their constructive comments and suggestions. This work was supported by China National 973 Project 2015CB453200, NSFC Grant 41475084, ONR Grant N00014-1210450, Jiangsu Shuang-Chuang Team, the priority academic program development of Jiangsu Higher Education institutions (PAPD), and Jiangsu NSF Key Project BK20150062. This is SOEST Contribution Number 9590, IPRC Contribution Number 1172 and ESMC Contribution Number 092.

References

  1. Alessandri A, Borrelli A, Cherchi A, Materia S, Navarra A, Lee JY, Wang B (2015) Prediction of Indian summer monsoon onset using dynamical subseasonal forecasts: effects of realistic initialization of the atmosphere. Mon Weather Rev 143:778–779CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  2. Alvarez MS, Vera CS, Kiladis GN, Liebmann B (2015) Influence of the Madden Julian Oscillation on precipitation and surface air temperature in South America. Clim Dyn. doi: 10.1007/s00382-015-2581-6 Google Scholar
  3. Annamalai H, Slingo JM (2001) Active/break cycles: diagnosis of the intraseasonal variability of the Asian summer monsoon. Clim Dyn 18:85–102CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  4. Barrett BS, Carrasco JF, Testino AP (2012) Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) modulation of atmospheric circulation and Chilean winter precipitation. J Clim 25:1678–1688CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  5. Bretherton CS, Widmann M, Dymnikov VP, Wallace JM, Bladé I (1999) The effective number of spatial degrees of freedom of a time-varying field. J Clim 12:1990–2009CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  6. Camargo SJ, Wheeler MC, Sobel AH (2009) Diagnosis of the MJO modulation of tropical cyclogenesis using an empirical index. J Atmos Sci 66:3061–3074CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  7. Cassou C (2008) Intraseasonal interaction between the Madden–Julian oscillation and the North Atlantic oscillation. Nature 455:523–527CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  8. Compo GP et al (2011) The twentieth century reanalysis project. Q J R Meteorol Soc 137:1–28CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  9. Donald A, Meinke H, Power B, Maia AdHN, Wheeler MC, White N, Stone RC, Ribbe J (2006) Near-global impact of the Madden–Julian oscillation on rainfall. Geophys Res Lett 33:L09704CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  10. Ferranti L, Palmer TN, Molteni F, Klinker K (1990) Tropical-extratropical interaction associated with the 30–60 day oscillation and its impact on medium and extended range prediction. J Atmos Sci 47:2177–2199CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  11. Fisseha B, Benjamin Z (2014) Modulation of daily precipitation over East Africa by the Madden–Julian oscillation. J Clim 27:6016–6034CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  12. Fu X, Wang WQ, Lee J-Y, Wang B, Vitart F (2013a) Intraseasonal forecasting of Asian summer monsoon in four operational and research models. J Clim 26:4186–4203CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  13. Fu X, Lee J-Y, Hsu P-C, Taniguchi H, Wang B, Wang W, Weaver S (2013b) Multi-model MJO forecasting during DYNAMO/CINDY period. Clim Dyn 41:1067–1081CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  14. Gerrity JP (1992) A note on Gandin and Murphy’s equitable skill score. Mon Weather Rev 120:2709–2712CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  15. Goswami BN, Ajayamohan RS, Xavier PK, Sengupta D (2003) Clustering of synoptic activity by Indian summer monsoon intraseasonal oscillations. Geophys Res Lett 30:1431. doi: 10.1029/2002GL016734 Google Scholar
  16. He JH, Lin H, Wu ZW (2011) Another look at influences of the Madden–Julian oscillation on the wintertime East Asian weather. J Geophys Res 116:D03109. doi: 10.1029/2010JD014787 Google Scholar
  17. Hendon H, Liebmann B (1990) The intraseasonal (30–50 day) oscillation of the Australian summer monsoon. J Atmos Sci 47:2909–2923CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  18. Higgins W, Schemm J, Shi W, Leetmaa A (2000) Extreme precipitation events in the western United States related to tropical forcing. J Clim 13:793–820CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  19. Horel JD (1981) A rotated principal component analysis of the interannual variability of the Northern Hemisphere 500 mb height field. Mon Weather Rev 109:2080–2092CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  20. Hsu P-C, Li T (2011) Interactions between boreal summer Intraseasonal oscillations and synoptic-scale disturbances over the western North Pacific. Part II: apparent heat and moisture sources and eddy momentum transport. J Clim 24:942–961CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  21. Hsu P-C, Li T (2012) Role of the boundary layer moisture asymmetry in causing the eastward propagation of the Madden–Julian oscillation. J Clim 25:4914–4931CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  22. Hsu P-C, Li T, You LJ, Gao JY, Ren HL (2015) A spatial-temporal projection method for 10–30-day forecast of heavy rainfall in Southern China. Clim Dyn 44:1227–1244CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  23. Hung M-P, Lin J-L, Wang WQ, Kim D, Shinoda T, Weaver SJ (2013) MJO and convectively coupled equatorial waves simulated by CMIP5 climate models. J Clim 26:6185–6214CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  24. Jeong JH, Kim BM, Ho CH, Noh YH (2008) Systematic variation in wintertime precipitation in East Asia by MJO-induced extratropical vertical motion. J Clim 21:788–801CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  25. Jones C, Carvalho L (2002) Active and break phases in the South American monsoon system. J Clim 15:905–914CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  26. Jones C, Carvalho L (2012) Spatial-intensity variations in extreme precipitation in the contiguous United States and the Madden–Julian oscillation. J Clim 25:4898–4913CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  27. Jones C, Carvalho L, Wayne HR, Waliser DE, Schemm JKE (2004) A statistical forecast model of tropical intraseasonal convective anomalies. J Clim 17:2078–2095CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  28. Kanamitsu M, Ebisuzaki W, Woollen J, Yang S-K, Hnilo JJ, Fiorino M, Potter GL (2002) NCEP–DOE AMIP-II reanalysis (R-2). Bull Am Meteorol Soc 83:1631–1643CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  29. Kim D, Sperber K, Stern W, Waliser D, Kang IS, Maloney E, Wang W, Weickmann K, Benedict J, Khairoutdinov M, Lee MI, Neale R, Suarez M, Thayer-Calder K, Zhang G (2009) Application of MJO simulation diagnostics to climate models. J Clim 22:6413–6436CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  30. Lavender S, Matthews AJ (2009) Response of the West African monsoon to the Madden–Julian oscillation. J Clim 22:4097–4116CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  31. Lee JY, Wang B, Wheeler MC, Fu XH, Waliser DE, Kang IS (2013) Real-time multivariate indices for the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation over the Asian summer monsoon region. Clim Dyn 40:493–509CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  32. Li K, Yu W, Li T, Murty VSN, Khokiattiwong S, Adi TR, Budi S (2013) Structures and mechanisms of the first-branch northward-propagating intraseasonal oscillation over the tropical Indian Ocean. Clim Dyn 40:1707–1720CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  33. Li CH, Li T, Gu DJ, Al Lin, Zheng B (2015a) Relationship between summer rainfall anomalies and sub-seasonal oscillation intensity in the ChangJiang Valley in China. Dyn Atmos Oceans 70:12–29CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  34. Li CH, Li T, Lin Al GuDJ, Zheng B (2015b) Relationship between summer rainfall anomalies and sub-seasonal oscillations in South China. Clim Dyn 44:423–439CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  35. Liebmann B, Smith CA (1996) Description of a complete (interpolated) outgoing longwave radiation dataset. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 77:1275–1277Google Scholar
  36. Lin H (2013) Monitoring and Predicting the Intraseasonal Variability of the East Asian–Western North Pacific Summer Monsoon. Mon Weather Rev 141:1124–1138CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  37. Lin H, Brunet G (2009) The influence of the Madden–Julian oscillation on Canadian wintertime surface air temperature. Mon Weather Rev 137:2250–2262CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  38. Love BS, Matthews AJ, Janacek GJ (2008) Real-time extraction of the Madden–Julian oscillation using empirical mode decomposition and statistical forecasting with a VARMA model. J Clim 21:5318–5335CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  39. Madden RA, Julian PR (1971) Detection of a 40–50 day oscillation in the zonal wind in the tropical Pacific. J Atmos Sci 28:702–708CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  40. Madden RA, Julian PR (1972) Description of global scale circulation cells in the tropics with a 40–50 day period. J Atmos Sci 29:1109–1123CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  41. Maloney ED, Hartmann D (2000) Modulation of hurricane activity in the Gulf of Mexico by the Madden–Julian oscillation. Science 287:2002–2004CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  42. Riddle EE, Stoner MB, Johnson NC, Heureux MLL, Collins DC, Feldstein SB (2013) The impact of the MJO on clusters of wintertime circulation anomalies over the North American region. Clim Dyn 40:1749–1766CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  43. Robock A, Vinnikov KY, Srinivasan G, Entin JK, Hollinger SE, Speranskaya NA, Liu SX, Namkhai A (2000) The global soil moisture data bank. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 81:1281–1299CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  44. Roundy PE (2012) Tracking and prediction of large-scale organized tropical convection by spectrally focused two-step space–time EOF analysis. Q J R Meteorol Soc 138:919–931CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  45. Sun GW, Xin F, Chen BD, He JH (2008) A predicting method on the low frequency synoptic weather map. Plateau Meteorol (in Chinese) 27:64–68Google Scholar
  46. Van Den Dool HM, Saha S (1990) Frequency dependence in forecast skill. Mon Weather Rev 118:128–137CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  47. Wheeler MC, Hendon HH (2004) An all-season real-time multivariate MJO Index: development of an Index for monitoring and prediction. Mon Weather Rev 132:1917–1932CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  48. Yang J, Wang B, Wang B, Bao Q (2010) Biweekly and 21–30-day variations of the subtropical summer monsoon rainfall over the lower reach of the Yangtze River basin. J Clim 23:1146–1159CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  49. Yang QM, Li Y, Song J, Huang SC (2012) Study on the extended range forecast of the principal 20–30-day oscillation pattern of the circulation over East Asia in summer of 2002. Acta Meteorol Sin 26:554–565CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  50. Zhang CD (2013) Madden–Julian oscillation: bridging weather and climate. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 94:1849–1870CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  51. Zhang YS, Li T, Wang B, Wu GS (2002) Onset of the summer monsoon over the Indochina Peninsula: climatology and interannual variations. J Clim 15:3206–3221CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  52. Zhang LN, Wang BZ, Zeng QC (2009) Impact of the Madden–Julian oscillation on summer rainfall in Southeast China. J Clim 22:201–216CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  53. Zhou S, Heureux ML, Weaver S, Kumar A (2012) A composite study of MJO influence on the surface air temperature and precipitation over the Continental United States. Clim Dyn 38:1459–1471CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  54. Zhu ZW, Li T, Hsu P-C, He JH (2015) A spatial–temporal projection model for extended-range forecast in the tropics. Clim Dyn 45:1085–1098CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2016

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education (KLME)/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change (ILCEC)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters (CIC-FEMD)Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjingChina
  2. 2.Department of Atmospheric Sciences, International Pacific Research Center, SOESTUniversity of Hawaii at ManoaHonoluluUSA

Personalised recommendations