Climate Dynamics

, Volume 47, Issue 7–8, pp 2155–2175 | Cite as

Intraseasonal variability of air temperature over the mid-high latitude Eurasia in boreal winter

Article

Abstract

The intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) of air temperature over the mid- and high-latitude Eurasia in boreal winter was investigated by NCEP-NCAR reanalysis data. It is found that the intraseasonal temperature disturbances exhibit maximum variability near the surface in the region of 50°–75°N, 80°‒120°E and they propagate southeastwards at average zonal and meridional phase speeds of 3.2 and 2.5 m s−1, respectively. The low-level temperature signal is tightly coupled with upper-tropospheric height anomalies, and both propagate southeastward in a similar phase speed. A diagnosis of the temperature budget reveals that the southeastward propagation is primarily attributed to the advection of the temperature anomaly by the mean wind. A wave activity flux analysis indicates that the southeastward propagating wave train is likely a result of Rossby wave energy propagation. The source of the Rossby wave train appears at the high latitude Europe/Atlantic sector, where maximum wave activity flux convergence resides. During its southeastward journey, the ISO perturbation gains energy from the mean flow through both kinetic and potential energy conversions. A physics-based empirical model was constructed to predict the intraseasonal temperature anomaly over southeast China. The major predictability source is the southeastward-propagating ISO signal. The data for 1979‒2003 were used as a training period to construct the empirical model. A 10-yr (2004‒2013) independent forecast shows that the model attains a useful skill of up to 25 days.

Keywords

Mid-high latitude intraseasonal temperature variability Southeastward propagation Extended-range forecast 

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Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2015

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.International Laboratory on Climate and Environment Change and Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of EducationNanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjingChina
  2. 2.International Pacific Research Center, Department of Atmospheric SciencesUniversity of Hawaii at ManoaHonoluluUSA

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