Advertisement

Climate Dynamics

, Volume 45, Issue 7–8, pp 2273–2292 | Cite as

Changes of precipitation amounts and extremes over Japan between 1901 and 2012 and their connection to climate indices

  • Weili Duan
  • Bin He
  • Kaoru Takara
  • Pingping Luo
  • Maochuan Hu
  • Nor Eliza Alias
  • Daniel Nover
Article

Abstract

Annual and seasonal precipitation amounts and annual precipitation extreme indices for Japan were characterized for the period 1901–2012 using the Mann–Kendall Tau test, regional analysis, and probability distribution functions, and possible correlations with climate indices including the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), and the sea surface temperature were explored using wavelet analysis. The results indicate that precipitation amounts exhibited a substantial dec rease at both the annual and seasonal scales, and the fluctuation became more frequent and stronger in the recent decades. Precipitation tended to be concentrated in summer and autumn throughout Japan and the southwest had higher precipitation than the southeast in the spring, summer, and autumn, with precipitation concentrated in the southeast in the winter. On a regional scale, the number of heavy precipitation days, consecutive wet days and total wet-day precipitation indicated a decreasing trend, while an increasing trend for maximum 1- and 5-day precipitation amount, precipitation in very wet days and the number of consecutive dry days. These changes have been an important issue for supplying the demand of water resources in Japan. Continuous wavelet analysis shows that there were significant periodic variations at 2–3 and 5–13 years frequency in extreme precipitation. In addition, climate indices have significant correlations with extreme precipitation, for example, there is statistically significant association between the increasing extreme precipitation and SOI.

Keywords

Precipitation variation Extreme indices Climate indices Continuous wavelet transform Japan 

Notes

Acknowledgments

This study was sponsored by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Nos. 41471460,  41130750), the “One Hundred Talents Program” of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, and the Kyoto University Global COE program “Sustainability/Survivability Science for a Resilient Society Adaptable to Extreme Weather Conditions” and “Global Center for Education and Research on Human Security Engineering for Asian Megacities”. We also wish to acknowledge Dr. Enric Aguilar and Dr. Masahito Ishihara for their comments. The first author would like to thank China Scholarship Council (CSC) for his PhD scholarships.

Compliance with ethical standards

Conflict of interest

The authors declare that they have no conflicts of interest in the research.

References

  1. Aguilar E, Auer I, Brunet M, Peterson TC, Wieringa J (2003) Guidance on metadata and homogenization. WMO TD 1186:53Google Scholar
  2. Aguilar E, Aziz Barry A, Brunet M, Ekang L, Fernandes A, Massoukina M, Mbah J, Mhanda A, Do Nascimento DJ, Peterson TC (2009) Changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in western central Africa, Guinea Conakry, and Zimbabwe, 1955–2006. J Geophys Res 114:10–1029Google Scholar
  3. Alexander LV, Zhang X, Peterson TC, Caesar J, Gleason B, Klein Tank A, Haylock M, Collins D, Trewin B, Rahimzadeh F (2006) Global observed changes in daily climate extremes of temperature and precipitation. J Geophys Res 111:10–1029Google Scholar
  4. Bader J, Latif M (2003) The impact of decadal-scale Indian Ocean sea surface temperature anomalies on Sahelian rainfall and the North Atlantic Oscillation. Geophys Res Lett 30:10–1029Google Scholar
  5. Bertacchi Uvo C, Olsson J, Morita O, Jinno K, Kawamura A, Nishiyama K, Koreeda N, Nakashima T (2001) Statistical atmospheric downscaling for rainfall estimation in Kyushu Island, Japan. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 5:259–271CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  6. Chang C, Zhang Y, Li T (2000) Interannual and interdecadal variations of the East Asian summer monsoon and tropical Pacific SSTs, part I: roles of the subtropical ridge. J Clim 13:4310–4325CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  7. Choi G, Collins D, Ren G, Trewin B, Baldi M, Fukuda Y, Afzaal M, Pianmana T, Gomboluudev P, Huong PTT (2009) Changes in means and extreme events of temperature and precipitation in the Asia-Pacific Network region, 1955–2007. Int J Climatol 29:1906–1925CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  8. Coumou D, Rahmstorf S (2012) A decade of weather extremes. Nat Clim Change 2:491–496Google Scholar
  9. Dai A (2011) Drought under global warming: a review. Wiley Interdiscip Rev Clim Change 2:45–65CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  10. Duan W, He B, Takara K, Luo P, Nover D, Sahu N, Yamashiki Y (2013) Spatiotemporal evaluation of water quality incidents in Japan between 1996 and 2007. Chemosphere 93:946–953CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  11. Duan W, He B, Takara K, Luo P, Nover D, Yamashiki Y, Huang W (2014) Anomalous atmospheric events leading to Kyushu’s flash floods, July 11–14, 2012. Nat Hazards 73(3):1255–1267CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  12. Fujibe F (2013) Clausius–Clapeyron-like relationship in multidecadal changes of extreme short-term precipitation and temperature in Japan. Atmos Sci Lett 14:127–132CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  13. Fujibe F, Yamazaki N, Katsuyama M, Kobayashi K (2005) The increasing trend of intense precipitation in Japan based on four-hourly data for a hundred years. SOLA 1:41–44CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  14. Fujibe F, Yamazaki N, Kobayashi K (2006) Long-term changes of heavy precipitation and dry weather in Japan (1901–2004). J Meteorol Soc Jpn 84(6):1033–1046CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  15. Giorgi F, Francisco R (2000) Evaluating uncertainties in the prediction of regional climate change. Geophys Res Lett 27(9):1295–1298CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  16. Grinsted A, Moore JC, Jevrejeva S (2004) Application of the cross wavelet transform and wavelet coherence to geophysical time series. Nonlinear Process Geophys 11:561–566CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  17. Guttman NB (1998) Homogeneity, data adjustments and Climatic Normals. National Climatic Data Center, Asheville, United StateGoogle Scholar
  18. Haylock M, Nicholls N (2000) Trends in extreme rainfall indices for an updated high quality data set for Australia, 1910–1998. Int J Climatol 20:1533–1541CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  19. Hipel KW, McLeod AI (2005) Time series modelling of water resources and environmental systems. Electronic reprint of our book originally published in 1994. http://www.stats.uwo.ca/faculty/aim/1994Book/
  20. Iwasaki H, Sunaga Y (2009) Study of recent variation in weak rainfall over Japan using 31-year AMeDAS dataset. Sci Online Lett Atmos 5:157–159Google Scholar
  21. Jin Y, Kawamura A, Jinno K, Berndtsson R (2005) Quantitative relationship between SOI and observed precipitation in southern Korea and Japan by nonparametric approaches. J Hydrol 301:54–65CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  22. Jung HS, Choi Y, Oh JH, Lim GH (2002) Recent trends in temperature and precipitation over South Korea. Int J Climatol 22:1327–1337CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  23. Kawamoto N, Oki R, Shimizu S (2011) Comparison between TRMM/PR and AMeDAS ground rain gauge network in terms of annual rainfall. In: IEEE International Conference on Geoscience and Remote Sensing Symposium (IGARSS). Vancouver, Canada, pp 2590–2593Google Scholar
  24. Kimoto M, Yasutomi N, Yokoyama C, Emori S (2005) Projected changes in precipitation characteristics around Japan under the global warming. SOLA 1:85–88CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  25. Krishnamurthy CKB, Lall U, Kwon HH (2009) Changing frequency and intensity of rainfall extremes over India from 1951 to 2003. J Clim 22:4737–4746CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  26. Krishnan R, Sugi M (2003) Pacific decadal oscillation and variability of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall. Clim Dyn 21:233–242CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  27. Kuo Y, Chu H, Pan T, Yu H (2011) Investigating common trends of annual maximum rainfalls during heavy rainfall events in southern Taiwan. J Hydrol 409:749–758CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  28. Lee S, Byun H, Tanaka HL (2012) Spatiotemporal characteristics of drought occurrences over Japan. J Appl Meteorol Clim 51:1087–1098CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  29. Li Z, He Y, Wang P, Theakstone WH, An W, Wang X, Lu A, Zhang W, Cao W (2012) Changes of daily climate extremes in southwestern China during 1961–2008. Glob Planet Change 80:255–272Google Scholar
  30. Mann H (1945) Nonparametric tests against trend. Econometrica 13:245–259CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  31. Manton MJ, Della Marta PM, Haylock MR, Hennessy KJ, Nicholls N, Chambers LE, Collins DA, Daw G, Finet A, Gunawan D (2001) Trends in extreme daily rainfall and temperature in Southeast Asia and the South Pacific: 1961–1998. Int J Climatol 21:269–284CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  32. Mantua NJ, Hare SR (2002) The Pacific decadal oscillation. J Oceanogr 58:35–44CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  33. Miyajima J, Fujibe F (2011) Climatology of extreme precipitation in Japan for different time scales. SOLA 7:157–160CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  34. Nakamura H, Izumi T, Sampe T (2002) Interannual and decadal modulations recently observed in the Pacific storm track activity and East Asian winter monsoon. J Clim 15:1855–1874CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  35. Press WH, Teukolsky SA, Vetterling WT, Flannery BP (2007) Numerical recipes 3rd edition: the art of scientific computing. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge (1256 p) Google Scholar
  36. Qian W, Kang H, Lee D (2002) Distribution of seasonal rainfall in the East Asian monsoon region. Theor Appl Climatol 73:151–168CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  37. Rajczak J, Pall P, Schär C (2013) Projections of extreme precipitation events in regional climate simulations for Europe and the Alpine Region. J Geophys Res Atmos 118:3610–3626CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  38. Río S, Herrero L, Fraile R, Penas A (2011) Spatial distribution of recent rainfall trends in Spain (1961–2006). Int J Climatol 31:656–667CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  39. Rowell DP (2012) Sources of uncertainty in future changes in local precipitation. Clim Dyn 39:1929–1950CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  40. Saito H, Nakayama D, Matsuyama H (2010) Relationship between the initiation of a shallow landslide and rainfall intensity—duration thresholds in Japan. Geomorphology 118:167–175CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  41. Sen Roy S, Balling RC (2004) Trends in extreme daily precipitation indices in India. Int J Climatol 24:457–466CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  42. Sillmann J, Kharin VV, Zhang X, Zwiers FW, Bronaugh D (2013) Climate extremes indices in the CMIP5 multimodel ensemble: part 1. Model evaluation in the present climate. J Geophys Res Atmos 118:1716–1733CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  43. Solomon S (2007) Climate change 2007: the physical science basis: contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Vol. Cambridge University PressGoogle Scholar
  44. Stocker TF, Qin D, Platner GK (2013) Climate change 2013: the physical science basis. Working Group I contribution to the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. summary for policymakers (IPCC)Google Scholar
  45. Sugiyama M, Shiogama H, Emori S (2010) Precipitation extreme changes exceeding moisture content increases in MIROC and IPCC climate models. Proc Natl Acad Sci 107:571–575CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  46. Suzuki K, Hayakawa S (2006) Convective precipitation in Yamaguchi Prefecture in summer. J Agric Meteorol 62:127–132CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  47. Takeshita S (2010) Influence on precipitation and the distribution in Miyazaki [Japan] Prefecture with climate changes. Bull Fac Agric Miyazaki Univ 56:73–78 (Japanese) Google Scholar
  48. Torrence C, Compo GP (1998) A practical guide to wavelet analysis. B Am Meteorol Soc 79:61–78CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  49. Villafuerte MQ II, Matsumoto J, Akasaka I, Takahashi HG, Kubota H, Cinco TA (2014) Long-term trends and variability of rainfall extremes in the Philippines. Atmos Res 137:1–13CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  50. Villarini G, Smith JA, Baeck ML, Vitolo R, Stephenson DB, Krajewski WF (2011) On the frequency of heavy rainfall for the Midwest of the United States. J Hydrol 400:103–120CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  51. Vincent LA, Peterson TC, Barros VR, Marino MB, Rusticucci M, Carrasco G, Ramirez E, Alves LM, Ambrizzi T, Berlato MA (2005) Observed trends in indices of daily temperature extremes in South America 1960–2000. J Clim 18:5011–5023CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  52. Wang XL (2003) Comments on “Detection of undocumented changepoints: a revision of the two-phase regression model”. J Clim 16:3383–3385CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  53. Wang XL (2008) Accounting for autocorrelation in detecting mean shifts in climate data series using the penalized maximal t or F test. J Appl Meteorol Climatol 47:2423–2444CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  54. Wang Y, Zhou L (2005) Observed trends in extreme precipitation events in China during 1961–2001 and the associated changes in large-scale circulation. Geophys Res Lett 32:L09707Google Scholar
  55. Wang B, Liu J, Kim H, Webster PJ, Yim S, Xiang B (2013) Northern Hemisphere summer monsoon intensified by mega-El Niño/southern oscillation and Atlantic multidecadal oscillation. Proc Natl Acad Sci 110:5347–5352CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  56. Xie S, Deser C, Vecchi GA, Ma J, Teng H, Wittenberg AT (2010) Global warming pattern formation: sea surface temperature and rainfall. J Clim 23:966–986CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  57. Yamaguchi K, Noda A (2006) Global warming patterns over the North Pacific: ENSO versus AO. J Meteorol Soc Jpn 84:221–241CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  58. Zalina M, Desa M, Nguyen V, Kassim A (2002) Selecting a probability distribution for extreme rainfall series in Malaysia. Water Sci Technol 45:63–68Google Scholar
  59. Zhai P, Zhang X, Wan H, Pan X (2005) Trends in total precipitation and frequency of daily precipitation extremes over China. J Clim 18:1096–1108CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  60. Zhang R, Delworth TL (2007) Impact of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation on North Pacific climate variability. Geophys Res Lett 34:L23708Google Scholar
  61. Zhang X, Yang F (2004) RClimDex (1.0) user manual. Climate Research Branch Environment, Ontario, CanadaGoogle Scholar
  62. Zhang X, Alexander L, Hegerl GC, Jones P, Tank AK, Peterson TC, Trewin B, Zwiers FW (2011) Indices for monitoring changes in extremes based on daily temperature and precipitation data. Wiley Interdiscip Rev Clim Change 2:851–870CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2015

Authors and Affiliations

  • Weili Duan
    • 1
    • 2
    • 3
    • 4
  • Bin He
    • 1
    • 2
  • Kaoru Takara
    • 4
  • Pingping Luo
    • 1
    • 3
  • Maochuan Hu
    • 3
  • Nor Eliza Alias
    • 4
  • Daniel Nover
    • 5
  1. 1.State Key Laboratory of Lake Science and Environment, Nanjing Institute of Geography and LimnologyChinese Academy of SciencesNanjingChina
  2. 2.Key Laboratory of Watershed Geographic Sciences, Nanjing Institute of Geography and LimnologyChinese Academy of SciencesNanjingChina
  3. 3.Department of Civil and Earth Resources Engineering, Graduate School of EngineeringKyoto UniversityKyotoJapan
  4. 4.Disaster Prevention Research Institute (DPRI)Kyoto University UjiKyotoJapan
  5. 5.AAAS Science and Technology Policy Fellow, U.S. Agency for International DevelopmentGhanaWest Africa

Personalised recommendations