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Climate Dynamics

, Volume 46, Issue 5–6, pp 1581–1597 | Cite as

Modelling of future mass balance changes of Norwegian glaciers by application of a dynamical–statistical model

  • Sebastian MutzEmail author
  • Heiko Paeth
  • Stefan Winkler
Article

Abstract

The long-term behaviour of Norwegian glaciers is reflected by the long mass-balance records provided by the Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate. These show positive annual mass balances in the 1980s and 1990s at maritime glaciers followed by rapid mass loss since 2000. This study assesses the influence of various atmospheric variables on mass changes of selected Norwegian glaciers by correlation- and cross-validated stepwise multiple regression analyses. The atmospheric variables are constructed from reanalyses by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. Transfer functions determined by the multiple regression are applied to predictors derived from a multi-model ensemble of climate projections to estimate future mass-balance changes until 2100. The statistical relationship to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the strongest predictor, is highest for maritime glaciers and less for more continental ones. The mass surplus in the 1980s and 1990s can be attributed to a strong NAO phase and lower air temperatures during the ablation season. The mass loss since 2000 can be explained by an increase of summer air temperatures and a slight weakening of the NAO. From 2000 to 2100 the statistical model predicts predicts changes for glaciers in more continental settings of c. −20 m w.e. (water equivalent) or 0.2 m w.e./a. The corresponding range for their more maritime counterparts is −0.5 to +0.2 m w.e./a. Results from Bayesian classification of observed atmospheric states associated with high melt or high accumulation in the past into different simulated climates in the future suggest that climatic conditions towards the end of the twenty-first century favour less winterly accumulation and more ablation in summer. The posterior probabilities for high accumulation at the end of the twenty-first century are typically 1.5–3 times lower than in the twentieth century while the posterior probabilities for high melt are often 1.5–3 times higher at the end of the twenty-first century than in the twentieth and early twenty-first century.

Keywords

Climate change Dynamic–statistical modelling Glacier mass balance Norway 

Notes

Acknowledgments

This work was funded by the DFG (Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft) in the framework of the DYNAMO-KG project under grant PA 1194/2-1. The authors also acknowledge the modelling groups, the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) and the WCRP’s Working Group on Coupled Modelling (WGCM) for their roles in making the WCRP CMIP3 multi-model dataset available, and the Office of Science, US Department of Energy, who provide support for this dataset. Furthermore, we thank the Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate (Norges vassdrags- og energidirektorat, NVE) for providing the glacier mass-balance data used in this study, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts for providing the ERA40 re-analysis data, and National Centers for Environmental Prediction and the National Center for Atmospheric Research for making their reanalysis products available.

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Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2015

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Department of GeosciencesUniversity of TübingenTübingenGermany
  2. 2.Institute of Geography and GeologyUniversity of WürzburgWürzburgGermany
  3. 3.Department of Geological SciencesUniversity of CanterburyChristchurchNew Zealand

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