Climate Dynamics

, Volume 45, Issue 11–12, pp 3317–3329 | Cite as

Decadal changes in tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific in the late 1990s

  • Haozhe He
  • Jing Yang
  • Daoyi Gong
  • Rui Mao
  • Yuqing Wang
  • Miaoni Gao
Article

Abstract

A pronounced decadal change in tropical cyclone (TC) activity over the western North Pacific (WNP) in the late 1990s was identified. Based on a comparison of the two epochs that occurred before and after the late 1990s, the TC genesis number exhibited an evident decrease over the southern WNP (S-WNP: 5°–20°N, 105°–170°E) and an increase over the northern WNP (N-WNP: 20°–25°N, 115°–155°E), which partly corresponded to a significant northward migration in the seasonal mean latitudinal location of TC genesis, i.e., from 17.2°N to 18.7°N. After the late 1990s, the northwestward-moving track became the most dominant track mode, accompanied by the weakening of both the westward-moving track and the northeastward-recurving track. Meanwhile, the TC occurrence frequency (TCF) experienced evident increases over southeastern China and the Okinawa islands, while prominent decreases occurred over the South China Sea, the Philippine Sea, Japan and east of Japan. Changes in the TCF were determined by TC genesis changes, TC track shifts and variations in regional TC durations, which were all ascribed to the decadal change in tropical Indo-Pacific sea surface temperature. The full picture on the decadal changes in the WNP TC activity revealed in this study may provide useful guidance for regional TC seasonal forecasts and future projections.

Keywords

Tropical cyclone Decadal change Regional features Tropical Indo-Pacific sea surface temperature 

References

  1. Atkinson GD (1974) Investigation of gust factors in tropical cyclones. FLEWEACEN Tech. Note JTWC 74-1, Fleet Weather Center, Guam, 9 ppGoogle Scholar
  2. Burgman RJ, Clement AC, Mitas CM, Chen J, Esslinger K (2008) Evidence for atmospheric variability over the Pacific on decadal timescales. Geophys Res Lett 35:L01704. doi:10.1029/2007GL031830 Google Scholar
  3. Chan JCL (2005) Interannual and interdecadal variations of tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific. Meteorol Atmos Phys 89:143–152CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  4. Chen G, Tam CY (2010) Different impacts of two kinds of Pacific Ocean warming on tropical cyclone frequency over the western North Pacific. Geophys Res Lett 37:L01803. doi:10.1029/2009GL041708 Google Scholar
  5. Chikamoto Y, Kimoto M, Watanabe M, Ishii M, Mochizuki T (2012) Relationship between the Pacific and Atlantic stepwise climate change during the 1990s. Geophys Res Lett 39:L21710. doi:10.1029/2012GL053901 Google Scholar
  6. Du Y, Xie S-P, Huang G, Hu K (2009) Role of Air–Sea Interaction in the long persistence of El Niño–Induced North Indian Ocean warming. J Clim 22:2023–2038CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  7. Du Y, Yang L, Xie SP (2011) Tropical Indian Ocean influence on Northwest Pacific tropical cyclones in summer following strong El Niño. J Clim 24:315–322CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  8. Emanuel KA, Nolan DS (2004) Tropical cyclone activity and global climate. Preprints, 26th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, Miami, FL, Amer. Meteor. Soc. 240–241Google Scholar
  9. Gao M-N, Yang J, Gong D-Y, Kim S-J (2014) Unstable relationship between spring Arctic oscillation and East Asian summer monsoon. Int J Climatol 34:2522–2528. doi:10.1002/joc.3849 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  10. Ge X, Li T, Zhou X (2007) Tropical cyclone energy dispersion under vertical shears. Geophys Res Lett 34:L23807. doi:10.1029/2007GL031867 Google Scholar
  11. Gill AE (1980) Some simple solutions for heat-induced tropical circulation. Q J R Meteorol Soc 106:447–462CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  12. Gray WM, Neumann C, Tsui TL (1991) Assessment of the role of aircraft reconnaissance on tropical cyclone analysis and forecasting. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 72:1867–1883CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  13. Guard CP, Carr LE, Wells FH, Jeffries RA, Gural ND, Edson DK (1992) Joint typhoon warning center and the challenges of multibasin tropical cyclone forecasting. Weather Forecast 7:328–352CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  14. Ho CH, Baik JJ, Kim JH, Gong DY, Sui CH (2004) Interdecadal changes in summertime typhoon tracks. J Clim 17:1767–1776CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  15. Holland GJ (Ed.) (1993) Tropical cyclone motion, in global guide to tropical cyclone forecasting, Tech. Doc. WMO/TD 560, Trop. Cyclone Programme Rep. TCP-31, chap. 3, World Meteorol. Org., Geneva, Switzerland. http://www.bom.gov.au/bmrc/pubs/tcguide/ch3/ch3_tableofcontents.htm
  16. Hong CC, Wu YK, Li T, Chang CC (2014) The climate regime shift over the Pacific during 1996/1997. Clim Dyn 43:435–446CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  17. Kajikawa K, Wang B (2012) Interdecadal change of the South China Sea summer monsoon onset. J Clim 25:3207–3218CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  18. Kamahori H, Yamazaki N, Mannoji N, Takahashi K (2006) Variability in intense tropical cyclone days in the western North Pacific. SOLA 2:104–107CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  19. Knapp KR, Kruk MC (2010) Quantifying interagency differences in tropical cyclone best-track wind speed estimations. Mon Weather Rev 138:1459–1473CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  20. Knapp KR, Knaff JA, Sampson CR, Riggio GM, Schnapp AD (2013) A pressure-based analysis of the historical western North Pacific tropical cyclone intensity record. Mon Weather Rev 141:2611–2631CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  21. Kossin JP, Knapp KR, Vimont DJ, Murnane RJ, Harper BA (2007) A globally consistent reanalysis of hurricane variability and trends. Geophys Res Lett 34:L04815. doi:10.1029/2006GL028836 Google Scholar
  22. Kossin JP, Emanuel KA, Vecchi GA (2014) The poleward migration of the location of tropical cyclone maximum intensity. Nature 509:349–352CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  23. Kubota H, Chan JCL (2009) Interdecadal variability of tropical cyclone landfall in the Philippines from 1902 to 2005. Geophys Res Lett 36:L12802. doi:10.1029/2009GL038108 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  24. Liu KS, Chan JCL (2008) Interdecadal variability of western North Pacific tropical cyclone tracks. J Clim 21:4464–4476CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  25. Liu KS, Chan JCL (2013) Inactive period of western North Pacific tropical cyclone activity in 1998–2011. J Clim 26:2614–2630CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  26. Matsuura T, Yumoto M, Iizuka S (2003) A mechanism of interdecadal variability of tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific. Clim Dyn 21:105–117CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  27. McPhaden MJ, Lee T, McClurg D (2011) El Nino and its relationship to changing background conditions in the tropical Pacific. Geophys Res Lett 38:L15709. doi:10.1029/2011GL048275 Google Scholar
  28. Mei W, Xie SP, Zhao M, Wang YQ (2014) Forced and internal variability of tropical cyclone track density in the Western North Pacific. J Clim 28:143–167CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  29. Murakami H, Wang B (2010) Future change of North Atlantic tropical cyclone tracks: projection by a 20-km-mesh global atmospheric model. J Clim 23:2699–2721. doi:10.1175/2010JCLI3338.1 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  30. Rayner NA, Parker DE, Horton EB, Folland CK, Alexander LV, Rowell DP, Kent EC, Kaplan A (2003) Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century. J Geophys Res 108:4407. doi:10.1029/2002JD002670 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  31. Ritchie EA, Holland GJ (1999) Large-scale patterns associated with tropical cyclogenesis in the western Pacific. Mon Weather Rev 127:2027–2043CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  32. Rodionov SN (2004) A sequential algorithm for testing climate regime shifts. Geophys Res Lett 31(L09204):2004G. doi:10.1029/L019448 Google Scholar
  33. Simmons A, Uppala S, Dee D, Kobayashi S (2007) ERA-Interim: new ECMWF reanalysis products from 1989 onwards. ECMWF Newsl 110:25–35Google Scholar
  34. Smith T, Reynolds R, Peterson T, Lawrimore J (2008) Improvements to NOAA’s historical merged land-ocean surface temperature analysis (1880–2006). J Clim 21:2283–2296CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  35. Song JJ, Wang Y, Wu LG (2010) Trend discrepancies among three best track data sets of western North Pacific tropical cyclones. J Geophys Res 115:D12128. doi:10.1029/2009JD013058 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  36. Tao L, Wu L, Wang YQ, Yang J (2012) Influences of tropical Indian Ocean warming and ENSO on tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific. J Meteorol Soc Japan 90:127–144CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  37. Tu JY, Chou C, Chu PS (2009) The abrupt shift of typhoon activity in the vicinity of Taiwan and its association with western North Pacific-East Asian climate change. J Clim 22:3617–3628CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  38. Wang B, Zhang Q (2002) Pacific-East Asian teleconnection. Part II: how the Philippine Sea anomalous anticyclone is established during El Niño development*. J Clim 15:3252–3265CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  39. Wang L, Li T, Zhou TJ (2012) Intraseasonal SST variability and air-sea interaction over the Kuroshio Extension region during boreal summer. J Clim 25:1619–1634CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  40. Wang B, Liu J, Kim HJ, Webster PJ, Yim SY, Xiang B (2013a) Northern Hemisphere summer monsoon intensified by mega-El Niño/southern oscillation and Atlantic multidecadal oscillation. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 110:5347–5352CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  41. Wang B, Xiang BQ, Lee JY (2013b) Subtropical high predictability establishes a promising way for monsoon and tropical storm predictions. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 110:2718–2722CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  42. Wang L, Huang RH, Wu R (2013c) Interdecadal variability in tropical cyclone frequency over the South China Sea and its association with the Indian Ocean sea surface temperature. Geophys Res Lett 40:768–771. doi:10.1002/grl.50171 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  43. Wang B, Lee JY, Xiang BQ (2014) Asian summer monsoon rainfall predictability: a predictable mode analysis. Clim Dyn. doi:10.1007/s00382-014-2218-1 Google Scholar
  44. Wu LG, Wang B (2004) Assessing impacts of global warming on tropical cyclone tracks. J Clim 17:1686–1698CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  45. Wu LG, Wang B, Geng S (2005) Growing typhoon influence on East Asia. Geophys Res Lett 32:L18703. doi:10.1029/2005GL022937 Google Scholar
  46. Wu MC, Yeung KH, Chang WL (2006) Trends in western North Pacific tropical cyclone intensity. Eos Trans Am Geophys Union 87:537–538. doi:10.1029/2006EO480001 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  47. Xiang BQ, Wang B (2013) Mechanisms for the advanced Asian summer monsoon onset since the mid-to-late 1990s. J Clim. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00445.1 Google Scholar
  48. Xiang BQ, Wang B, Li T (2012) A new paradigm for the predominance of standing Central Pacific Warming after the late 1990s. Clim Dyn 39:1–14CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  49. Xiang BQ, Wang B, Yu W, Xu S (2013) How can anomalous western North Pacific Subtropical High intensify in late summer? Geophys Res Lett 40(10):2349–2354CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  50. Xie SP, Hu KM, Hafner J, Tokinaga H, Du Y, Huang G, Sampe T (2009) Indian capacitor effect on Indo-western Pacific climate during the summer following El Niño. J Clim 22:730–747CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  51. Yang S, Lau KM, Kim KM (2002) Variations of the East Asian jet stream and Asia–Pacific–American winter climate anomalies. J Clim 15:306–325CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  52. Yokoi S, Takayabu YN (2013) Attribution of decadal variability in tropical cyclone passage frequency over the western North Pacific: a new approach emphasizing the genesis location of cyclones. J Clim 26:973–987CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  53. Yumoto M, Matsuura T (2001) Interdecadal variability of tropical cyclone activity in the western North Pacific. J Meteorol Soc Japan 79:23–35CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  54. Zhan RF, Wang YQ, Le X (2011a) Contributions of ENSO and East Indian Ocean SSTA to the interannual variability of tropical cyclone frequency. J Clim 24:509–521. doi:10.1175/2010JCLI3808.1 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  55. Zhan RF, Wang YQ, Wu CC (2011b) Impact of SSTA in East Indian Ocean on the frequency of Northwest Pacific tropical cyclones: a regional atmospheric model. J Clim 24:6227–6242CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  56. Zhan RF, Wang YQ, Wen M (2013) The SST gradient between the Southwest Pacific and the western Pacific warm pool: a new factor controlling the Northwest Pacific tropical cyclone genesis frequency. J Clim 26:2408–2415CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  57. Zhan RF, Wang YQ, Tao L (2014) Intensified impact of East Indian Ocean SST anomaly on tropical cyclone genesis frequency over the western North Pacific. J Clim 27:8724–8739CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  58. Zhang G, Wang Z (2013) Interannual variability of the Atlantic Hadley circulation in boreal summer and its impacts on tropical cyclone activity. J Clim 26:8529–8544CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2015

Authors and Affiliations

  • Haozhe He
    • 1
  • Jing Yang
    • 1
  • Daoyi Gong
    • 1
  • Rui Mao
    • 1
  • Yuqing Wang
    • 2
  • Miaoni Gao
    • 1
  1. 1.State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology (ESPRE)Beijing Normal UniversityBeijingChina
  2. 2.International Pacific Research Center and Department of Atmospheric SciencesUniversity of Hawaii at ManoaHonoluluUSA

Personalised recommendations