Climate Dynamics

, Volume 45, Issue 3–4, pp 867–880 | Cite as

A mechanism for the multidecadal modulation of ENSO teleconnection with Europe

  • Jorge López-Parages
  • Belén Rodríguez-Fonseca
  • Laurent Terray
Article

Abstract

El Niño phenomenon is the main oceanic driver of the interannual atmospheric variability and a determinant source of predictability in the tropics and extratropics. Several studies have found a consistent and statistically significant impact of El Niño over the North Atlantic European Sector, which could lead to an improvement of the skill of current seasonal forecast systems over Europe. Nevertheless, this signal seems to be non-stationary in time and it could be modulated by the ocean at very low frequencies. Hence, the seasonal climate predictability based on El Niño could be variable and only effective for specific time periods. This study considers the multidecadal changes in the ocean mean state as a possible modulator of ENSO-European rainfall teleconnection at interannual timescales. A long control simulation of the CNRM-CM5 model is used to substantiate this hypothesis and to assess if it can be relevant to explain the non-stationary behavior seen in the twentieth century. The model reproduces the leading rainfall mode over the Euro-Mediterranean region, and its non stationary link with El Niño. This teleconnection has been identified in coincidence with changes of the zonal mean flow at upper levels, which influence the propagation of the waves from the tropics to extratropics through the atmosphere and, hence, to explain the changing impact over Europe. However, the non-stationary impact observed along the twentieth century could also be related to the observed changes in the interannual oceanic forcing signal itself. The results obtained suggest, for both hypotheses, an important role of the natural internal variability of the ocean at multidecadal timescales.

Keywords

Atmospheric teleconnection ENSO European rainfall Multidecadal modulation 

Supplementary material

382_2014_2319_MOESM1_ESM.pdf (765 kb)
Supplementary material 1 (PDF 766 kb)

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Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2014

Authors and Affiliations

  • Jorge López-Parages
    • 1
  • Belén Rodríguez-Fonseca
    • 1
  • Laurent Terray
    • 2
  1. 1.Departamento de Física de la Tierra, Astronomía y Astrofísica I (Geofísica y Meteorología). Instituto de Geociencias UCM-CSIC, Facultad de C.C. FísicasUniversidad Complutense de Madrid (UCM)MadridSpain
  2. 2.Climate Modelling and Global Change TeamCERFACS/CNRSToulouseFrance

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