Climate Dynamics

, Volume 45, Issue 3–4, pp 807–824 | Cite as

Synoptic drivers of 400 years of summer temperature and precipitation variability on Mt. Olympus, Greece

  • Stefan Klesse
  • Malin Ziehmer
  • Georgios Rousakis
  • Valerie Trouet
  • David Frank
Article

Abstract

The Mediterranean region has been identified as a global warming hotspot, where future climate impacts are expected to have significant consequences on societal and ecosystem well-being. To put ongoing trends of summer climate into the context of past natural variability, we reconstructed climate from maximum latewood density (MXD) measurements of Pinus heldreichii (1521–2010) and latewood width (LWW) of Pinus nigra (1617–2010) on Mt. Olympus, Greece. Previous research in the northeastern Mediterranean has primarily focused on inter-annual variability, omitting any low-frequency trends. The present study utilizes methods capable of retaining climatically driven long-term behavior of tree growth. The LWW chronology corresponds closely to early summer moisture variability (May–July, r = 0.65, p < 0.001, 1950–2010), whereas the MXD-chronology relates mainly to late summer warmth (July–September, r = 0.64, p < 0.001; 1899–2010). The chronologies show opposing patterns of decadal variability over the twentieth century (r = −0.68, p < 0.001) and confirm the importance of the summer North Atlantic Oscillation (sNAO) for summer climate in the northeastern Mediterranean, with positive sNAO phases inducing cold anomalies and enhanced cloudiness and precipitation. The combined reconstructions document the late twentieth—early twenty-first century warming and drying trend, but indicate generally drier early summer and cooler late summer conditions in the period ~1700–1900 CE. Our findings suggest a potential decoupling between twentieth century atmospheric circulation patterns and pre-industrial climate variability. Furthermore, the range of natural climate variability stretches beyond summer moisture availability observed in recent decades and thus lends credibility to the significant drying trends projected for this region in current Earth System Model simulations.

Keywords

Tree ring Summer North Atlantic Oscillation Northeastern Mediterranean Maximum latewood density Summer climate reconstruction Latewood width 

Supplementary material

382_2014_2313_MOESM1_ESM.pdf (347 kb)
Figure S1: Correlation of CRU precipitation grid cell 40.25°N, 22.25°E with surrounding precipitation fields in the two split periods 1901-1950 (a) and 1951-2009 (b). (PDF 347 kb)
382_2014_2313_MOESM2_ESM.pdf (113 kb)
Figure S2: Upper panel: Normalized signal-free LWW chronologies based on RCS (black) and negative exponential detrending (red) and the residuals (lower panel). (PDF 112 kb)
382_2014_2313_MOESM3_ESM.pdf (154 kb)
Figure S3: Multi-taper spectra of precipitation (upper panel) and temperature (lower panel) reconstructions over the full length in black. Red lines show the spectrum of instrumental data (1950-2010) and blue the corresponding spectrum of the reconstruction. Grey lines indicate spectra of earlier 60-year periods each shifted by 30 years. (PDF 153 kb)

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Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2014

Authors and Affiliations

  • Stefan Klesse
    • 1
    • 2
  • Malin Ziehmer
    • 3
    • 2
  • Georgios Rousakis
    • 5
  • Valerie Trouet
    • 4
  • David Frank
    • 1
    • 2
  1. 1.Swiss Federal Research Institute WSLBirmensdorfSwitzerland
  2. 2.Oeschger Centre for Climate Change ResearchBernSwitzerland
  3. 3.Physics InstituteUniversity of BernBernSwitzerland
  4. 4.Laboratory of Tree-Ring ResearchUniversity of ArizonaTucsonUSA
  5. 5.Litohoro Forest ServiceLitohoroGreece

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