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Climate Dynamics

, Volume 45, Issue 3–4, pp 697–709 | Cite as

Bay of Bengal: coupling of pre-monsoon tropical cyclones with the monsoon onset in Myanmar

  • Boniface O. Fosu
  • Shih-Yu Simon WangEmail author
Article

Abstract

The pre-monsoon tropical cyclone (TC) activity and the monsoon evolution in the Bay of Bengal (BoB) are both influenced by the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO), but the two do not always occur in unison. This study examines the conditions that allow the MJO to modulate the monsoon onset in Myanmar and TC activity concurrently. Using the APHRODITE gridded precipitation and the ERA-Interim reanalysis datasets, composite evolutions of monsoon rainfall and TC genesis are constructed for the period of 1979–2010. It is found that the MJO exhibits a strong interannual variability in terms of phase and intensity, which in some years modulate the conditions for BoB TCs to shortly precede or form concurrently with the monsoon onset in Myanmar. Such a modulation is absent in years of weaker MJO events. Further understanding of the interannual variability of MJO activity could facilitate the prediction of the monsoon onset and TC formation in the BoB.

Keywords

Madden–Julian oscillation Tropical cyclones Monsoon onset BoB monsoon trough TC-onset coupling Interannual variability 

Notes

Acknowledgments

We thank Robert Gillies for his insightful suggestions. This study was supported by the United States Agency for International Development grant EEM-A-00-38310-00001 and the NASA Grant NNX13AC37G, and approved by the Utah State University Agricultural Experimental Station.

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Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2014

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Department of Plants, Soils, and ClimateUtah State UniversityLoganUSA
  2. 2.Utah Climate CenterUtah State UniversityLoganUSA

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