Statistical modeling and CMIP5 simulations of hot spell changes in China
- 471 Downloads
A hot spell is an extreme weather event with one or more consecutive days with daily maximum temperature exceeding a certain threshold of high temperature. Statistical modeling of summer hot spells in China during 1960–2005 and their simulations in the historical experiment of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) are investigated in this study. A technique called the hot spell model (HSM), introduced by Furrer et al. (Clim Res 43:191–205, 2010) for modeling hot spells by extending the point process approach to extreme value theory, is applied. Specifically, the frequency of summer hot spells is modeled by a Poisson distribution, their intensity is modeled by a generalized Pareto distribution, and their duration is modeled by a geometric distribution. Results show that the HSM permits realistic modeling of summer hot spells in China. Trends in the frequency, duration, and intensity of hot spells were estimated based on the HSM for the observed period from 1960 to 2005. Furthermore, the performance in simulating hot spell characteristics and trends from the CMIP5 historical run were assessed based on the HSM. Climate models with good performance were selected to conduct an ensemble projection of hot spell intensity, frequency, and duration and their trends in future decades.
KeywordsHot spell model Extreme value theory CMIP5
This study is supported by the National Nature Science Foundation of China Grant 41175079 and 41376025, the Macao Meteorological and Geophysical Bureau (SMG) Project 9231048, and the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences Grant XDA11010403. Y. Li was supported by CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship. This work was initiated when the first author visited CSIRO in his PhD study leave during 1 October–30 November 2011, supported by Chow Yei Ching School of Graduate Studies, City University of Hong Kong.
- Fischer T, Menz C, Su B, Scholten T (2013) Simulated and projected climate extremes in the Zhujiang River Basin, South China, using the regional climate model COSMO-CLM. Int J Climatol. doi: 10.1002/joc.3643
- Gumbel EJ (1958) Statistics of extremes. Columbia University Press, New YorkGoogle Scholar
- Houghton JT, Ding Y, Griggs DJ, Noguer M, van der Linden PJ, Dai X, Maskell K, Johnson CA (eds) (2001) IPCC, 2001: Climate change 2001: the physical science basis. Contribution of working group I to the third assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USAGoogle Scholar
- Li Z, Yan ZW (2009) Homogenized daily mean/maximum/minimum temperature series for China from 1960–2008. Atmos Oceanic Sci Lett 2:237–243Google Scholar
- Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, Chen Z, Marquis M, Averyt KB, Tignor M, Miller HL (eds) (2007) IPCC, 2007: Climate change 2007: the physical science basis. Contribution of working group I to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USAGoogle Scholar
- Stocker TF, Qin D, Plattner GK, Tignor M, Allen SK, Boschung J, Nauels A, Xia Y, Bex V, Midgley PM (eds) IPCC, 2013: climate change 2013: the physical science basis. Contribution of working group I to the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USAGoogle Scholar
- Tao S, Wei J (2006) The westward, northward advance of the subtropical high over the west Pacific in summer. J Appl Meteorol Sci 17(5):513–525 (in Chinese)Google Scholar
- Wang W, Zhou W, Wang X, Fong SK, Leong KC (2013a) Summer high temperature extremes in Southeast China associated with the East Asian jet stream and circumglobal teleconnection. J Geophys Res Atmos 118. doi: 10.1002/jgrd.50633
- Zhao M, Pitman AJ (2002) The impact of land cover change and increasing carbon dioxide on the extreme and frequency of maximum temperature and convective precipitation. Geophys Res Lett 29:1078. doi: 10.1029/2001GL013476
- Zhou W, Li CY, Chan JCL (2006) The interdecadal variations of the summer monsoon rainfall over South China. Meteorol Atmos Phys. doi: 10.1007/S00703-006-018-9