Decadal changes in the relationship between the Indian and Australian summer monsoons
In this study, we investigate a long-term modulation in the relationship between Indian summer monsoon rainfall with the subsequent Australian summer monsoon rainfall. The two monsoon rainfall time series are significantly correlated at 0.3 at the 99 % confidence level. However, the relationship weakens during the 1932–1966 period, with the inter-monsoon correlation for the period falling below statistical significance. We find that this modulation is consistent with a breakdown of the typical El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influence on sea surface temperature in the northern region of Australia, during this period. In addition, a change in the relative influences of ENSO and Indian Ocean Basin-wide Warming sea surface temperature anomalies on the Australian summer monsoon rainfall is also apparent across different time periods.
KeywordsTropospheric Biennial Oscillation Indian summer monsoon Australian summer monsoon ENSO ENSO Modoki Air–sea interaction IOBW
The authors acknowledge discussions with Harry Hendon. Constructive comments from two anonymous reviewers of an earlier version have helped in improving the manuscript. Karumuri Ashok acknowledges the support of Prof. B. N. Goswami, Director of the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM). The Center for Climate Change Research of the IITM is funded by the Ministry of Earth Sciences, Govt. of India. Nagaraju acknowledges the support of Akshara Kaginalkar, Associate director, Center for Development of Advanced Computing (C-DAC) Pune. Alex Sengupta acknowledges funding by the Australian Research Council grant DP110100601.
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