Quasi-stationarity of centennial Northern Hemisphere midlatitude winter storm tracks
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The winter storm activity on the Northern Hemisphere during the last one thousand years in a global climate simulation was analyzed by determining all midlatitude storms and their tracks, then consecutively clustering them for hundred years’ segments. Storm track clusters with longest lifetime and largest deepening rates are found over the oceans. The numbers of extratropical winter storms exhibit notable yearly variability but hardly any variability on centennial time scales. The clusters of these storm tracks also show only small differences between the centuries. The numbers of members in neighboring oceanic clusters are negatively correlated. A linear relationship was found between the numbers of members per storm track clusters over the Pacific or Atlantic Ocean and seasonal mean atmospheric circulation patterns by a canonical correlation analysis.
KeywordsCyclone North Atlantic Oscillation Canonical Correlation Analysis Storm Track Extratropical Cyclone
We thank Eduardo Zorita for providing ECHO-G simulation data, his support with statistic routines, and helpful discussions. We appreciate Kevin I. Hodges help with his tracking algorithm which was used for our study. The NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data were provided by the National Centre for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). We thank Beate Geyer for providing the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and technical supports. We also thank Beate Gardeike for her help to prepare the figures. This work was funded by the China Scholarship Council (CSC) and the Institute of Coastal Research Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht within the framework of the Junior Scientist Exchange Program organised by the CSC and the Helmholtz Association of German research centres (HGF). This work is a contribution to the “Helmholtz Climate Initiative REKLIM” (Regional Climate Change), a joint research project of HGF. The authors thank two anonymous reviewers for constructive comments that helped to improve this article.
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