Current and future atmospheric circulation at 500 hPa over Greenland simulated by the CMIP3 and CMIP5 global models
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The Greenland ice sheet is projected to be strongly affected by global warming. These projections are either issued from downscaling methods (such as Regional Climate Models) or they come directly from General Circulation Models (GCMs). In this context, it is necessary to evaluate the accuracy of the daily atmospheric circulation simulated by the GCMs, since it is used as forcing for downscaling methods. Thus, we use an automatic circulation type classification based on two indices (Euclidean distance and Spearman rank correlation using the daily 500 hPa geopotential height) to evaluate the ability of the GCMs from both CMIP3 and CMIP5 databases to simulate the main circulation types over Greenland during summer. For each circulation type, the GCMs are compared to three reanalysis datasets on the basis of their frequency and persistence differences. For the current climate (1961–1990), we show that most of the GCMs do not reproduce the expected frequency and the persistence of the circulation types and that they simulate poorly the observed daily variability of the general circulation. Only a few GCMs can be used as reliable forcings for downscaling methods over Greenland. Finally, when applying the same approach to the future projections of the GCMs, no significant change in the atmospheric circulation over Greenland is detected, besides a generalised increase of the geopotential height due to a uniform warming of the atmosphere.
KeywordsGeneral circulation models 500 hPa geopotential height Greenland Circulation type classification
We acknowledge the modelling groups, the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) and the WCRP Working Group on Coupled Modelling (WGCM) for their role in making available the WCRP CMIP3 multi-model dataset. Support for this dataset is provided by the Office of Science, US Department of Energy.
For their role in producing, coordinating, and making available the CMIP5 model output, we acknowledge the climate modelling groups (see Table 1), the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) Working Group on Coupled Modelling (WGCM), and the Global Organization for Earth System Science Portals (GO-ESSP).
We also wish to thank the research centres that publish their data, especially data not contained in the CMIP databases.
NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis data were provided by the NOAA/OAR/ESRL PSD, Boulder, Colorado, USA, from their website at http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/.
The ECMWF ERA-40 Reanalysis data used in this study were obtained from the ECMWF Data Server (http://www.ecmwf.int).
Support for the Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20CR) Project dataset was provided by the US Department of Energy, Office of Science Innovative and Novel Computational Impact on Theory and Experiment (DOE INCITE) program, by the Office of Biological and Environmental Research (BER), and by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Program Office.
Finally, we wish to thank the ISLV Editing and Translation Services for their support in improving the language of this manuscript.
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