Advertisement

Climate Dynamics

, Volume 40, Issue 5–6, pp 1515–1529 | Cite as

Influence of local and remote SST on North Atlantic tropical cyclone potential intensity

  • Suzana J. CamargoEmail author
  • Mingfang Ting
  • Yochanan Kushnir
Article

Abstract

We examine the role of local and remote sea surface temperature (SST) on the tropical cyclone potential intensity in the North Atlantic using a suite of model simulations, while separating the impact of anthropogenic (external) forcing and the internal influence of Atlantic Multidecadal Variability. To enable the separation by SST region of influence we use an ensemble of global atmospheric climate model simulations forced with historical, 1856–2006 full global SSTs, and compare the results to two other simulations with historical SSTs confined to the tropical Atlantic and to the tropical Indian Ocean and Pacific. The effects of anthropogenic plus other external forcing and that of internal variability are separated by using a linear, “signal-to-noise” maximizing EOF analysis and by projecting the three model ensemble outputs onto the respective external forcing and internal variability time series. Consistent with previous results indicating a tampering influence of global tropical warming on the Atlantic hurricane potential intensity, our results show that non-local SST tends to reduce potential intensity associated with locally forced warming through changing the upper level atmospheric temperatures. Our results further indicate that the late twentieth Century increase in North Atlantic potential intensity, may not have been dominated by anthropogenic influence but rather by internal variability.

Keywords

Sea surface temperature Potential intensity Hurricanes Local and remote effects 

Notes

Acknowledgments

The authors acknowledge support of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Grants NA08OAR4320912, NA10OAR4310124 and NA10OAR4320137. We would like to thank Donna Lee and Naomi Naik (LDEO) for performing the CCM3 simulations used in this study. The authors would like to thank the Global Decadal Hydroclimate group at Lamont and Columbia for helpful discussion and input and two anonymous reviewers for their useful suggestions and comments.

References

  1. Bister M, Emanuel KA (1998) Dissipative heating and hurricane intensity. Meteor Atmos Phys 65:223–240CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  2. Bister M, Emanuel KA (2002a) Low frequency variability of tropical cyclone potential intensity: 1. Interannual to interdecadal variability. J Geophys Res 107:4801. doi: 10.1029/2001JD000776 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  3. Bister M, Emanuel KA (2002b) Low frequency variability of tropical cyclone potential intensity: 2. Climatology for 1982–1995. J Geophys Res 107:4621. doi: 10.1029/2001JD000780 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  4. Bryan GH, Rotunno R (2009) The maximum intensity of tropical cyclones in axisymmetric numerical model simulations. Mon Weather Rev 137:1770–1789CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  5. DelSole T, Tippett MK, Shukla J (2011) A significant component of unforced multidecadal variability in the recent acceleration of global warming. J Clim 24:909–926CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  6. Emanuel KA (1986) An air-sea interaction theory for tropical cyclones. Part I: steady-state maintenance. J Atmos Sci 43:585–604CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  7. Emanuel KA (1987) The dependence of hurricane intensity on climate. Nature 326:483–485CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  8. Emanuel KA (1988) The maximum intensity of hurricanes. J Atmos Sci 45:1143–1155CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  9. Emanuel KA (1995) Sensitivity of tropical cyclones to surface exchange coefficients and a revised steady-state model incorporating eye dynamics. J Atmos Sci 52:3969–3976CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  10. Emanuel K (2005) Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years. Nature 436:686–688CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  11. Emanuel K (2010) Tropical cyclone activity downscaled from NOAA-CIRES Reanalysis, 1908–1958. J Adv Model Earth Syst 2. doi: 10.3894/JAMES.2010.2.1
  12. Emanuel K, Solomon S, Folini D, Davis S, Cagnazzo C (2012) Influenced of tropical tropopause layer cooling on Atlantic hurricane activity. J Clim (submitted)Google Scholar
  13. Enfield DB, Mestas-Nunez AM, Trimble PJ (2001) The Atlantic multidecadal oscillation and it’s relation to rainfall and river flows in the continental U.S. Geophys Res Lett 28:2077–2080CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  14. ERA-Interim (2011) ERA-Interim re-analysis brief description, http://www.ecmwf.int/research/era/do/get/ERA-Interim_brief
  15. Goldenberg SB, Landsea CW, Mestas-Nuñez AM, Gray WM (2001) The recent increase in Atlantic hurricane activity: causes and implications. Science 293:474–479CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  16. Graumann A, Houston T, Lawrimore J, Levinson D, Lott N, McCown S, Stephens S, Wuertz D (2005) Hurricane Katrina—a climatological perspective. NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center, Technical Report 2005-01Google Scholar
  17. Gray WM (1968) Global view of the origin of tropical disturbances and storms. Mon Weather Rev 96:669–700CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  18. Gray WM (1979) Hurricanes: their formation, structure and likely role in the tropical circulation. Meteorology over the tropical oceans. Royal Meteorological Society, BracknallGoogle Scholar
  19. Holland GJ (1997) The maximum potential intensity of tropical cyclones. J Atmos Sci 54:2519–2541CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  20. Kalnay E et al (1996) The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 77:437–471CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  21. Kaplan A, Cane MA, Kushnir Y, Clement AC, Blumenthal MB, Rajagopalan B (1998) Analyses of global sea surface temperature: 1856–1991. J Geophys Res 103:18567–18589CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  22. Kiehl JT, Hack JJ, Bonan GB, Bovile BA, Williamson DL, Rasch PJ (1998) The national center for atmospheric research community climate model: CCM3. J Clim 11:1131–1149CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  23. Kistler R et al (2001) The NCEP-NCAR 50-year reanalysis: monthly means CD-ROM and documentation. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 82:247–267CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  24. Kossin JP, Camargo SJ (2009) Hurricane track variability and secular potential intensity trends. Clim Chang 9:329–337CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  25. Kossin JP, Vimont DJ (2007) A more general framework for understanding Atlantic hurricane variability and trends. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 88:1767–1781CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  26. Kossin JP, Camargo SJ, Sitkowski M (2010) Climate modulation of North Atlantic hurricane tracks. J Clim 23:3057–3076CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  27. Kushnir Y (1994) Interdecadal variations in North Atlantic Sea surface temperature and associated atmospheric conditions. J Clim 7:141–157CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  28. Kushnir Y, Seager R, Ting M, Naik N, Nakamura J (2010) Mechanisms of tropical Atlantic SST influence on North American precipitation variability. J Clim 23:5610–5628CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  29. Lau N-G, Nath MJ (1994) A modeling study of the relative roles of tropical and extratropical SST anomalies in the variability of the global atmosphere-ocean system. J Clim 7:1184–1207CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  30. Mann ME, Emanuel KA (2006) Atlantic hurricane trends linked to climate change. EOS. Trans Am Geophys Union 87:233–241CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  31. Montgomery MT, Van Sang N, Smith RK, Persing J (2009) Do tropical cyclones intensify by WISHE? Q J R Meteorol Soc 135:1697–1714CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  32. Palmén EH (1948) On the formation and structure of tropical cyclones. Geophysica 3:26–38Google Scholar
  33. Ramsay HA, Sobel AH (2011) Effects of relative and absolute sea surface temperature on tropical cyclone potential intensity using a single-column model. J Clim 24:183–193CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  34. Rayner N, Parker D, Horton E, Folland C, Alexander L, Rowell D, Kent E, Kaplan A (2003) Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century. J Geophys Res 108:4407. doi: 10.1029/2002JD002670 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  35. Schubert S et al (2009) A US CLIVAR project to assess and compare the responses of global climate models to drought-related SST forcing patterns: overview and results. J Clim 22:5251–5272CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  36. Seager R (2007) The turn of the century North American drought: global context, dynamics, and past analogs. J Clim 20:5527–5552CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  37. Seager R, Kushnir Y, Herweijer C, Naik N, Velez J (2005) Modeling of tropical forcing of persistent droughts and pluvials over western North America: 1856–2000. J Clim 18:4065–4088CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  38. Seager R, Kushnir Y, Ting M, Cane M, Naik N, Miller J (2008) Would advance knowledge of 1930s SSTs have allowed prediction of the dust bowl drought? J Clim 21:3261–3281CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  39. Servain J (1991) Simple climatic indexes for the tropical Atlantic-Ocean and some applications. J Geophys Res C 96:15137–15146CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  40. Smith RK, Montgomery MT, Vogl S (2008) A critique of Emanuel’s hurricane model and potential intensity theory. Quart J R Meteorol Soc 134:551–561CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  41. Sobel AH, Camargo SJ (2012) Projected future seasonal changes in tropical summer climate. J Clim 24:473–487CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  42. Sobel AH, Held IM, Bretherton CS (2002) The ENSO signal in tropical tropospheric temperature. J Clim 12:2702–2706CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  43. Solomon A, Goddard L, Kumar A, Carton J, Deser C, Fukumori I, Greene AM, Hegerl G, Kirtman B, Kushnir Y, Newman M, Smith D, Vimont D, Delworth T, Meehl GA, Stockdale T (2011) Distinguishing the roles of natural and anthropogenically forced decadal climate variability. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 92:141–156CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  44. Swanson KL (2008) Nonlocality of tropical cyclone intensities. Geochem Geophys Geosyst 9:Q04V01CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  45. Tang BH, Neelin JD (1994) ENSO influence on Atlantic hurricanes via tropospheric warming. Geophys Res Lett 31:L24204CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  46. Ting M, Kushnir Y, Seager R, Li C (2009) Forced and natural 20th Century SST trends in the North Atlantic. J Clim 22:1469–1481CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  47. Ting M, Kushnir Y, Seager R, Li C (2011) Robust features of Atlantic multidecadal variability and its climate impacts. Geophys Res Lett 38:L17705. doi: 10.1029/2011GL048712 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  48. Uppala SM et al (2005) The ERA-40 re-analysis. Quart JR Meteorol Soc 131:2961–3012CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  49. Vecchi GA, Soden BJ (2007) Effect of remote sea surface temperature change on tropical cyclone potential intensity. Nature 450:1066–1070CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  50. Vecchi GA, Swanson KL, Soden BJ (2008) Whither hurricane activity? Science 322:687–689CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  51. Vecchi GA, Fueglistaler S, Held IM, Knutson TR, Zhao M (2012) Influence of tropical tropopause layer cooling on Atlantic hurricane activity. J Clim (submitted)Google Scholar
  52. Villarini G, Vecchi GA (2012) Twenty-first-century projections of North Atlantic tropical storms from CMIP5 models. Nat Clim Chang Early online. doi: 10.1938/nclimate1530 Google Scholar
  53. Vimont DJ, Kossin JP (2007) The Atlantic meridional mode and hurricane activity. Geophys Res Lett 34:L07709CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  54. Wing AA, Sobel AH, Camargo SJ (2007) The relationship between the potential and actual intensities of tropical cyclones on interannual time scales. Geophys Res Lett 34:L08810CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  55. Zhang R, Delworth TL (2006) Impact of Atlantic multidecadal oscillation on India/Sahel rainfall and Atlantic hurricanes. Geophys Res Lett 33:L17712CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2012

Authors and Affiliations

  • Suzana J. Camargo
    • 1
    Email author
  • Mingfang Ting
    • 1
  • Yochanan Kushnir
    • 1
  1. 1.Lamont-Doherty Earth ObservatoryColumbia UniversityPalisadesUSA

Personalised recommendations