Climate Dynamics

, Volume 41, Issue 3–4, pp 1057–1066 | Cite as

On the added value of regional climate modeling in climate change assessment

Article
First Online:
Received:
Accepted:

Abstract

Regional climate models represent a promising tool to assess the regional dimension of future climate change and are widely used in climate impact research. While the added value of regional climate models has been highlighted with respect to a better representation of land-surface interactions and atmospheric processes, it is still unclear whether radiative heating implies predictability down to the typical scale of a regional climate model. As a quantitative assessment, we apply an optimal statistical filter to compare the coherence between observed and simulated patterns of Mediterranean climate change from a global and a regional climate model. It is found that the regional climate model has indeed an added value in the detection of regional climate change, contrary to former assumptions. The optimal filter may also serve as a weighting factor in multi-model averaging.

Keywords

Regional climate modeling Climate change detection Optimal fingerprinting 
This is a preview of subscription content, log in to check access.

Notes

Acknowledgments

We thank the Climatic Research Unit for providing the observational data. The considered model simulations were realized in the framework of the IMPETUS project funded by the Federal German Minister of Education and Research (BMBF) under grant No. 07 GWK 02 and by the Ministry of Education, Science and Research (MSWF) of the Federal State of Northrhine-Westfalia under grant No. 223-21200200.

References

  1. Arrhenius S (1926) Erde und Weltall. Akad. Verlagsgesellschaft, LeipzigGoogle Scholar
  2. Artale V, Calmanti S, Carillo A, Dell’Aquila A, Herrmann M, Pisacane G, Ruti PM, Sannino G, Vittoria Struglia M, Giorgi F, Bi X, Pal JS, Rauscher S (2010) The PROTHEUS Group, an atmosphereocean regional climate model for the Mediterranean area: assessment of a present climate simulation. Clim Dyn 35:721–740CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  3. Baldi M, Dalu G, Maracchi G, Pasqui M, Cesarone F (2006) Heat waves in the Mediterranean: a local feature or a larger-scale effect? Int J Climatol 26:1477–1487CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  4. Barkhordarian A, Bhend J, von Storch H (2011) Consistency of observed near surface temperature trends with climate change projections over the Mediterranean region. Clim Dyn 38:1695–1702CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  5. Cullen HK, de Menocal PB (2000) North Atlantic influence on TigrisEuphrates streamflow. Int J Climatol 20:853–863CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  6. Dell’Aquila A, Calmanti S, Ruti P, Vittoria Struglia M, Pisacarne G, Carillo A, Sannino G (2012) Effects of seasonal cycle fluctuations in an A1B scenario over the Euro-Mediterranean region. Clim Res 52:135–157CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  7. Dubois C et al. (2012) Future projections of the surface heat and water budgets of the Mediterranean Sea in an ensemble of coupled atmosphere-ocean regional climate models. Clim Dyn. doi: 10.1107/s00382-011-1261-4
  8. Feser F (2006) Enhanced detectability of added value in limited-area model results separated into different spatial scales. Mon Wea Rev 134:2180–2190CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  9. Giorgi F (2006) Climate change hot-spots. Geophys Res Lett 33. doi: 10.1029/2006GL025734
  10. Hansen J, Sato M, Ruedy R, Lo K, Lea DW, Medina-Elizade M (2006) Global temperature change. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 103:14288–14293CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  11. Hasselmann K (1979) On the signal-to-noise problem in atmospheric response studies. In: Shaw D (eds) Meteorology over tropical oceans, pp 251–259Google Scholar
  12. Hasselmann K (1993) Optimal fingerprints for the detection of time-dependent climate change. J Climate 6:1957–1971CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  13. Hasselmann K (1997) Multi-pattern fingerprint method for detection and attribution of climate change. Clim Dyn 13:601–611CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  14. Hegerl G, North GR (1997) Comparison of statistically optimal approaches to detecting anthropogenic climate change. J Climate 10:1125–1133CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  15. Herrera S, Fita L, Fernández J, Gutiérrez JM (2010) Evaluation of the mean and extreme precipitation regimes from the ENSEMBLES regional climate multimodel simulations over Spain. J Geophys Res 115:D21117. doi: 10.1029/2010JD013936 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  16. IPCC (2007a) Climate change 2007, the physical science basis. Contribution of working group I to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. In: Solomon S et al. (eds) Cambridge University Press, CambridgeGoogle Scholar
  17. IPCC (2007b) Climate Change 2007, impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. Contribution of working group II to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Parry ML et al. (eds) Cambridge University Press, CambridgeGoogle Scholar
  18. Ivanov MA, Evtimov SN (2010) 1963: The break point of the Northern Hemisphere temperature trend during the twentieth century. Int J Climatol 30:1738–1746CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  19. Krishnamurti TN, Kishtawal CM, La Row TE, Bachiochi DR, Zhang Z, Williford CE, Gadgil S, Surendan S (1999) Improved weather and seasonal climate forecasts from multimodel superensemble. Science 285:1548–1550CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  20. Leroy SS, Anderson JG (2010) Optimal detection of regional trends using global data. J Climate 23:4438–4446CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  21. Mariotti A, Dell’Aquila A (2011) Decadal climate variability in the Mediterranean region: roles of large-scale forcings and regional processes. Clim Dyn 38:1129–1145CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  22. Mariotti A, Zeng N, Yoon J.-H, Artale V, Navarra A, Alpert P, Li LZX (2008) Mediterranean water cycle changes: transition to drier 21st century conditions in observations and CMIP3 simulations. Environ Res Lett 3. doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/3/4/044001
  23. Min S-K, Hense A (2006) Bayesian approach to climate model evaluation and multi-model averaging with an application to global mean surface temperatures from IPCC AR4 coupled climate models. Geophys Res Lett 33. doi: 10.1029/2006GL025779
  24. Mitchell TD, Jones PD (2005) An improved method of constructing a database of monthly climate observations and associated high-resolution grids. Int J Climatol 25:693–712CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  25. New M, Hulme M, Jones P (2000) Representing twentieth-century space-time climate variability. Part II: development of 1901-96 monthly grids of terrestrial surface climate. J Climate 13:2217–2238CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  26. Paeth H, Born K, Girmes R, Podzun R, Jacob D (2009) Regional climate change in tropical and Northern Africa due to greenhouse forcing and land use changes. J Climate 22:114–132CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  27. Paeth H, Fink AH, Pohle S, Keis F, Mächel H, Samimi C (2011) Meteorological characteristics and potential causes of the 2007 flood in sub-Saharan Africa. Int J Climatol 31:1908–1926CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  28. Paeth H, Hall NMJ, Gaertner MA, Dominguez Alonso M, Moumouni S, Polcher J, Ruti PM, Fink AH, Gosset M, Lebel T, Gaye AT, Rowell DP, Moufouma-Okia W, Jacob D, Rockel B, Giorgi F, Rummukainen M (2011) Progress in regional downscaling of West African precipitation. Atmos Sci Lett 12:75–82CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  29. Paeth H, Hense A (2001) Signal analysis of the atmospheric mean 500/1000 hpa temperature north of 55°N between 1949 and 1994. Clim Dyn 18:345–358CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  30. Paeth H, Hense A (2002) Sensitivity of climate change signals deduced from multi-model Monte Carlo experiments. Clim Res 22:189–204CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  31. Paeth H, Hense A (2005) Mean versus extreme climate in the Mediterranean region and its sensitivity to future global warming conditions. Meteorol Z 14:329–347CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  32. Paeth H, Pollinger F (2010) Enhanced evidence for changes in extratropical atmospheric circulation. Tellus 62A:647–660Google Scholar
  33. Prömmel K, Geyer B, Jones JM, Widmann M (2010) Evaluation of the skill and added value of a reanalysis-driven regional simulation for Alpine temperature. Int J Climatol 30:760–773Google Scholar
  34. Raible CC, Ziv B, Saaroni H, Wild M (2010) Winter synoptic-scale variability over the Mediterranean Basin under future climate conditions as simulated by the ECHAM5. Clim Dyn 35:473–488CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  35. Rauthe M, Paeth H (2004) Relative importance of Northern Hemisphere circulation modes in predicting regional climate change. J Climate 17:4180–4189CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  36. Ribes A, Azaïs J-M, Planton S (2010) A method for regional climate change detection using smooth temporal patterns. Clim Dyn 35:391–406CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  37. Rodriguez-Puebla C, Nieto S (2010) Trends of precipitation over the Iberian Peninsula and the North Atlantic oscillation under climate change conditions. Int J Climatol 30:1807–1815Google Scholar
  38. Sanchez-Gomez E, Somot S, Josey SA, Dubois C, Elguindi N, Déqué M (2011) Evaluation of Mediterranean Sea water and heat budgets simulated by an ensemble of high resolution regional climate models. Clim Dyn 37:2067–2086CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  39. Somot S, Sevault F, Déqué M, Crépan M (2008) 21st century climate change scenario for the Mediterranean using a coupled atmosphere-ocean regional climate model. Glob Planet Change 63:112–126CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  40. Sotillo MG, Martin ML, Valero F, Luna MY (2006) Validation of a homogeneous 41-year (1961–2001) winter precipitation hindcasted dataset over the Iberian Peninsula: assessment of the regional improvement of global reanalysis. Clim Dyn 27:627–645CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  41. Sotillo MG, Rassimandresy AW, Carretero JC, Bentamy A, Valero F, González-Rouco F (2005) A high-resolution 44-year atmospheric hindcast for the Mediterranean Basin: contribution to the regional improvement of global reanalysis. Clim Dyn 25:219–236CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  42. Spagnoli B, Planton S, Déqué M, Mestre O, Moisselin J (2002) Detecting climate change at a regional scale: the case of France. Geophys Res Lett 29:90.1–90.4CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  43. Stott PA, Tett SFB (1998) Scale-dependent detection of climate change. J Climate 11:3282–3294CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  44. Stott PA, Tett SFB, Jones GS, Allen MR, Mitchell JFB, Jenkins GJ (2000) External control of 20th century temperature by natural and anthropogenic forcings. Science 290:2133–2137CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  45. Tebaldi C, Smith RL, Nychka D, Mearns LO (2005) Quantifying uncertainty in projections of regional climate change: a Bayesian approach to the analysis of multimodel ensembles. J Climate 18:1524–1540CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  46. Thompson DWJ, Wallace JM, Kennedy JI, Jones PD (2010) An abrupt drop in Northern Hemisphere sea surface temperature around 1970. Nature 467:444–447CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  47. Ting M, Kushnir Y, Seager R, Li C (2009) Forced and internal twentieth-century SST trends in the North Atlantic. J Climate 22:1469–1481CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  48. von Storch H, Zorita E, Jones JM, Dimitriev Y, González-Rouco F, Tett SFB (2004) Reconstructing past climate from noisy data. Science 306:679–682CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  49. Wang Y, Leung LR, McGregor JL, Lee D-K, Wang W-C, Ding Y, Kimura F (2004) Regional climate modeling: progress, challenges, and prospects. J Meteorol Soc Japan 82:1599–1628CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  50. Zanis P, Ntogras C, Zakey A, Pytharoulis I, Karacostas T (2012) Regional climate feedback of anthropogenic aerosols over Europe using RegCM3. Clim Res 52:267–278CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  51. Zhang X, Zwiers FW, Stott P (2006) Multimodel multisignal climate change detection at regional scale. J Climate 19:4294–4307CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  52. Zwiers FW, Zhang X (2003) Toward regional-scale climate change detection. J Climate 16:793–797CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag 2012

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Institute of Geography and GeologyUniversity of WürzburgWürzburgGermany

Personalised recommendations