Climate Dynamics

, Volume 40, Issue 5, pp 1301–1318

Multidecadal-to-centennial SST variability in the MPI-ESM simulation ensemble for the last millennium

  • D. Zanchettin
  • A. Rubino
  • D. Matei
  • O. Bothe
  • J. H. Jungclaus
Article

DOI: 10.1007/s00382-012-1361-9

Cite this article as:
Zanchettin, D., Rubino, A., Matei, D. et al. Clim Dyn (2013) 40: 1301. doi:10.1007/s00382-012-1361-9

Abstract

We assess the responses of North Atlantic, North Pacific, and tropical Indian Ocean Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) to natural forcing and their linkage to simulated global surface temperature (GST) variability in the MPI-Earth System Model simulation ensemble for the last millennium. In the simulations, North Atlantic and tropical Indian Ocean SSTs show a strong sensitivity to external forcing and a strong connection to GST. The leading mode of extra-tropical North Pacific SSTs is, on the other hand, rather resilient to natural external perturbations. Strong tropical volcanic eruptions and, to a lesser extent, variability in solar activity emerge as potentially relevant sources for multidecadal SST modes’ phase modulations, possibly through induced changes in the atmospheric teleconnection between North Atlantic and North Pacific that can persist over decadal and multidecadal timescales. Linkages among low-frequency regional modes of SST variability, and among them and GST, can remarkably vary over the integration time. No coherent or constant phasing is found between North Pacific and North Atlantic SST modes over time and among the ensemble members. Based on our assessments of how multidecadal transitions in simulated North Atlantic SSTs compare to reconstructions and of how they contribute characterizing simulated multidecadal regional climate anomalies, past regional climate multidecadal fluctuations seem to be reproducible as simulated ensemble-mean responses only for temporal intervals dominated by major external forcings.

Keywords

Pacific decadal oscillation Atlantic multidecadal oscillation Global surface temperature Last millennium Multidecadal variability Earth system model Modes interaction 

Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag 2012

Authors and Affiliations

  • D. Zanchettin
    • 1
  • A. Rubino
    • 2
  • D. Matei
    • 1
  • O. Bothe
    • 3
    • 1
  • J. H. Jungclaus
    • 1
  1. 1.Ocean in the Earth System DepartmentMax Planck Institute for MeteorologyHamburgGermany
  2. 2.Department of Environmental Sciences, Informatics and StatisticsUniversity of VeniceVeniceItaly
  3. 3.University of HamburgHamburgGermany

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