Hindcast skill and predictability for precipitation and two-meter air temperature anomalies in global circulation models over the Southeast United States
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This paper presents an assessment of the seasonal prediction skill of current global circulation models, with a focus on the two-meter air temperature and precipitation over the Southeast United States. The model seasonal hindcasts are analyzed using measures of potential predictability, anomaly correlation, Brier skill score, and Gerrity skill score. The systematic differences in prediction skill of coupled ocean–atmosphere models versus models using prescribed (either observed or predicted) sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are documented. It is found that the predictability and the hindcast skill of the models vary seasonally and spatially. The largest potential predictability (signal-to-noise ratio) of precipitation anywhere in the United States is found in the Southeast in the spring and winter seasons. The maxima in the potential predictability of two-meter air temperature, however, reside outside the Southeast in all seasons. The largest deterministic hindcast skill over the Southeast is found in wintertime precipitation. At the same time, the boreal winter two-meter air temperature hindcasts have the smallest skill. The large wintertime precipitation skill, the lack of corresponding two-meter air temperature hindcast skill, and a lack of precipitation skill in any other season are features common to all three types of models (atmospheric models forced with observed SSTs, atmospheric models forced with predicted SSTs, and coupled ocean–atmosphere models). Atmospheric models with observed SST forcing demonstrate a moderate skill in hindcasting spring-and summertime two-meter air temperature anomalies, whereas coupled models and atmospheric models forced with predicted SSTs lack similar skill. Probabilistic and categorical hindcasts mirror the deterministic findings, i.e., there is very high skill for winter precipitation and none for summer precipitation. When skillful, the models are conservative, such that low-probability hindcasts tend to be overestimates, whereas high-probability hindcasts tend to be underestimates.
KeywordsEnsemble Member Winter Precipitation Forecast Skill Seasonal Forecast Anomaly Correlation
We thank the various model providers for making available, through APEC Climate Center (APCC), the hindcast datasets used in this study. We thank Ms. Kyong Hee An for facilitating the data access and for providing associated documentation and Ms. Kathy Fearon for her careful reading of the manuscript and helpful editorial comments. All model data used in this study are available online from APCC (http://www.apcc21.net). This research was supported by NOAA grant NA07OAR4310221 and USDA grant 2088-38890-19013.
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