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Climate Dynamics

, Volume 37, Issue 1–2, pp 121–131 | Cite as

Teleconnections between Ethiopian summer rainfall and sea surface temperature: part II. Seasonal forecasting

  • G. T. DiroEmail author
  • D. I. F. Grimes
  • E. Black
Article

Abstract

A seasonal forecasting system that is capable of skilfully predicting rainfall totals on a regional scale would be of great value to Ethiopia. Here, we describe how a statistical model can exploit the teleconnections described in part 1 of this pair of papers to develop such a system. We show that, in most cases, the predictors selected objectively by the statistical model can be interpreted in the light of physical teleconnections with Ethiopian rainfall, and discuss why, in some cases, unexpected regions are chosen as predictors. We show that the forecast has skill in all parts of Ethiopia, and argue that this method could provide the basis of an operational seasonal forecasting system for Ethiopia.

Keywords

Statistical model Seasonal forecasting Teleconnection Ethiopia Rainfall Sea surface temperature 

Notes

Acknowledgements

The authors wish to thank the Ethiopian National Meteorological Agency for providing the raingauge data and the UK Met office for providing the HadISST SST data and HadAM3 model. The authors are grateful to the reviewers for their thorough and constructive comments on our paper.

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Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag 2010

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Earth System Physics SectionThe Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical PhysicsTriesteItaly
  2. 2.Department of MeteorologyUniversity of ReadingReadingUK

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