Teleconnections between Ethiopian summer rainfall and sea surface temperature: part II. Seasonal forecasting
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A seasonal forecasting system that is capable of skilfully predicting rainfall totals on a regional scale would be of great value to Ethiopia. Here, we describe how a statistical model can exploit the teleconnections described in part 1 of this pair of papers to develop such a system. We show that, in most cases, the predictors selected objectively by the statistical model can be interpreted in the light of physical teleconnections with Ethiopian rainfall, and discuss why, in some cases, unexpected regions are chosen as predictors. We show that the forecast has skill in all parts of Ethiopia, and argue that this method could provide the basis of an operational seasonal forecasting system for Ethiopia.
KeywordsStatistical model Seasonal forecasting Teleconnection Ethiopia Rainfall Sea surface temperature
The authors wish to thank the Ethiopian National Meteorological Agency for providing the raingauge data and the UK Met office for providing the HadISST SST data and HadAM3 model. The authors are grateful to the reviewers for their thorough and constructive comments on our paper.
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