Advertisement

Climate Dynamics

, Volume 36, Issue 9–10, pp 1835–1849 | Cite as

Sensitivity of Hudson Bay Sea ice and ocean climate to atmospheric temperature forcing

  • S. Joly
  • S. SennevilleEmail author
  • D. Caya
  • F. J. Saucier
Article

Abstract

A regional sea-ice–ocean model was used to investigate the response of sea ice and oceanic heat storage in the Hudson Bay system to a climate-warming scenario. Projections of air temperature (for the years 2041–2070; effective CO2 concentration of 707–950 ppmv) obtained from the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM 4.2.3), driven by the third-generation coupled global climate model (CGCM 3) for lateral atmospheric and land and ocean surface boundaries, were used to drive a single sensitivity experiment with the delta-change approach. The projected change in air temperature varies from 0.8°C (summer) to 10°C (winter), with a mean warming of 3.9°C. The hydrologic forcing in the warmer climate scenario was identical to the one used for the present climate simulation. Under this warmer climate scenario, the sea-ice season is reduced by 7–9 weeks. The highest change in summer sea-surface temperature, up to 5°C, is found in southeastern Hudson Bay, along the Nunavik coast and in James Bay. In central Hudson Bay, sea-surface temperature increases by over 3°C. Analysis of the heat content stored in the water column revealed an accumulation of additional heat, exceeding 3 MJ m−3, trapped along the eastern shore of James and Hudson bays during winter. Despite the stratification due to meltwater and river runoff during summer, the shallow coastal regions demonstrate a higher capacity of heat storage. The maximum volume of dense water produced at the end of winter was halved under the climate-warming perturbation. The maximum volume of sea ice is reduced by 31% (592 km³) while the difference in the maximum cover is only 2.6% (32,350 km2). Overall, the depletion of sea-ice thickness in Hudson Bay follows a southeast–northwest gradient. Sea-ice thickness in Hudson Strait and Ungava Bay is 50% thinner than in present climate conditions during wintertime. The model indicates that the greatest changes in both sea-ice climate and heat content would occur in southeastern Hudson Bay, James Bay, and Hudson Strait.

Keywords

Warm Climate Eastern Shore Canadian Regional Climate Model Brine Rejection Foxe Basin 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.

Notes

Acknowledgments

The authors wish to thank James Caveen and François Roy for technical support and Dr. Christopher-John Mundy for helpful advice and encouragement. Hydrological data were provided by HydroQuébec, Water Survey of Canada (Environment Canada), and the Ministère du Développement Durable, de l’Environnement et des Parcs (Government of Québec). The authors are members of the Canadian ArcticNet Program. This work is a contribution to the ArcticNet Program, funded in part by the Network Centres of Excellence (NCE) Canada.

References

  1. Amundrud TL, Melling H, Ingram RG (2004) Geometrical constraints on the evolution of ridged sea ice. J Geophys Res 109:C06005. doi: 10.1029/2003JC002251 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  2. Backhaus JO (1983) A semi-implicit scheme for the shallow water equations for application to shelf sea modeling. Cont Shelf Res 2:234–254Google Scholar
  3. Backhaus JO (1985) A three-dimensional model for the simulation of shelf-sea dynamics. Dtsch Hydrogr Z 38:165–187CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  4. Backhaus JO, Kämpf J (1999) Simulations of sub-mesoscale oceanic convection and ice-ocean interactions in the Greenland Sea. Deep Sea Res II 46:1427–1455CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  5. Coté J, Gravel S, Méthot A, Patoine A, Roch M, Staniforth A (1997a) The operational CMC/MRB Global Environmental Multiscale (GEM) model: part I—design considerations and formulation. Mon Wea Rev 126:1373–1395CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  6. Coté J, Gravel S, Méthot A, Patoine A, Roch M, Staniforth A (1997b) The operational CMC/MRB Global Environmental Multiscale (GEM) model: part II—results. Mon Wea Rev 126:1397–1418CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  7. de Ramón Elía, Caya Daniel, Côté Hélène, Frigon Anne, Biner Sébastien, Giguère Michel, Paquin Dominique, Harvey Richard, Plummer David (2007) Uncertainty study of an ensemble of CRCM regional climate simulations over North America. Clim Dyn 30:113–132Google Scholar
  8. Defossez M, Saucier FJ, Myers PG, Caya D, Dumais JF (2008) Multi-year observations of deep water renewal in Foxe Basin, Canada. Atmos Ocean 46(3):377–390CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  9. Déry SJ, Stieglitz M, McKenna EC, Wood EF (2005) Characteristics and trends of river discharge into Hudson, James, and Ungava Bays, 1964–2000. J Climate 18:2540–2557CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  10. Döscher R, Meier HEM (2004) Simulated sea surface temperature and heat fluxes in different climates of the Baltic Sea. Ambio 33:242–248Google Scholar
  11. Gagnon AS, Gough WA (2005) Climate change scenarios for the Hudson Bay region: an intermodel comparison. Clim Change 69:269–297CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  12. Gough WA (1998) Projections of sea-level change in Hudson and James Bays, Canada, due to global warming. Arct Alp Res 30:84–88CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  13. Gough WA, Allakhverdova T (1999) Limitations of using a coarse resolution model to assess the impact of climate change on sea ice in Hudson Bay. Can Geographer 43:415–422CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  14. Gough WA, Wolfe E (2001) Climate change scenarios for Hudson Bay, Canada, from general circulation models. Arctic 54:142–148Google Scholar
  15. Graham LP (2004) Climate change effects on river flow to the Baltic Sea. Ambio 33:235–241Google Scholar
  16. Holland MM, Bitz CM (2003) Polar amplification of climate change in coupled models. Clim Dyn 21:221–232CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  17. Hunke EC, Dukowicz JK (1997) An elastic-viscous-plastic model for sea ice dynamics. J Phys Oceanogr 27:1849–1867CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  18. Hurrell JW, Hoerling MP, Phillips AS, Xu T (2004) Twentieth century North Atlantic climate change. Part I: assessing determinism. Clim Dyn 23:371–389CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  19. Hurrell JW et al (2006) Atlantic climate variability and predictability: a CLIVAR perspective. J Climate 19:5100–5121CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  20. Ingram RG, Wang J, Lin C, Legendre L, Fortier L (1996) Impact of freshwater on a subarctic coastal ecosystem under seasonal sea-ice cover (Southeastern Hudson Bay, Canada), I, Interannual variability and predicted global warming influence on river plume dynamics and sea ice. J Mar Syst 7:221–231CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  21. Jackobsson M, Cherkis NZ, Woodward J, Macnab R, Coakley B (1996) New grid of Arctic bathymetry aids scientists and mapmakers. Eos Transaction Am Geophys Union 81:89–93CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  22. Jin Z, Stammes K, Weeks W, Tsay S (1994) The effect of sea ice on the solar energy budget in the atmosphere-sea ice-ocean system: a model study. J Geophys Res 99((C12)):25281–25294CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  23. Kauker F, Meier HEM (2003) Modeling decadal variability of the Baltic Sea: 1. Reconstructing atmospheric surface data for the period 1902–1998. J Geophys Res 108(C8):3267. doi: 10.1029/2003JC001797 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  24. Lipscomb WH, Hunke EC, Maslowski W, Jakacki J (2007) Ridging, strength, and stability in high-resolution sea-ice models. J Geophys Res 112:C03S91. doi: 10.1029/2005JC003355 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  25. Makshtas A, Shoutilin S, Romanov V (2003) Possible dynamic and thermal causes for the recent decrease in sea-ice in the Arctic. J Geophys Res 108:3232. doi: 10.1029/2001JC000878 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  26. Manak DK, Mysak LA (1989) On the relationship between Arctic sea-ice anomalies and fluctuations in northern Canadian air temperature and river discharge. Atmos Ocean 27:682–691Google Scholar
  27. Markham WE (1986) The ice cover. In: Martini EP (ed) Canadian Inland Seas, Oceanogr Ser 44. Elsevier, New York, pp 101–116CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  28. Marsland SJ, Church JA, Bindoff NL, Williams GD (2007) Antarctic coastal polynya response to climate change. J Geophys Res 112:C07009. doi: 10.1029/2005JC003291 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  29. Maxwell JB (1986) A climate overview on the Canadian Inland Seas. In: Martini EP (ed) Canadian Inland Seas, Oceanogr Ser 44. Elsevier, New York, pp 79–99CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  30. Maykut GA, McPhee MG (1995) Solar heating of the Arctic mixed layer. J Geophys Res 100(C12):24691–24703CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  31. Meier HEM (2002a) Regional ocean climate simulations with a 3-D ice-ocean model for the Baltic Sea. Part 1: model experiments and results for temperature and salinity. Clim Dyn 19:237–253CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  32. Meier HEM (2002b) Regional ocean climate simulations with a 3-D ice-ocean model for the Baltic Sea. Part 2: results for sea ice. Clim Dyn 19:255–266CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  33. Meier HEM (2006) Baltic Sea climate in the late twenty-first century: a dynamical downscalling approach using two global models and two emission scenarios. Clim Dyn 27:39–68CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  34. Meier HEM, Döscher R (2002) Simulated water and heat cycles of the Baltic Sea using a 3D coupled atmosphere-ice-ocean model. Boreal Environ Res 7:327–334Google Scholar
  35. Meier HEM, Döscher R, Halkka A (2004) Simulated distributions of Baltic Sea-ice in warming climate and consequences for the winter habitat of the Baltic ringed seal. Ambio 33:249–256Google Scholar
  36. Music B, Caya D (2007) Evaluation of the hydrological cycle over the Mississippi River basin as simulated by the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM). J Hydromet 8(5):969–988CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  37. Mysak LA, Ingram RG, Wang J, Van der Baaren A (1996) The anomalous sea-ice extent in Hudson Bay, Baffin Bay and the Labrador Sea during three simultaneous NAO and ENSO episodes. Atmos Ocean 34:313–343Google Scholar
  38. Parkinson CL, Washington WM (1979) A large scale numerical model of sea ice. J Geophys Res 84:311–337CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  39. Perovich DK (2005) On the aggregate-scale partitioning of solar radiation in the Arctic sea ice during the Surface Heat Budget of the Arctic Ocean (SHEBA) field experiment. J Geophys Res 110:C03002. doi: 10.1029/2004JC002512 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  40. Plummer DA, Caya D, Frigon A, Côté H, Giguère M, Paquin D, Biner S, Harvey R, De Elia R (2006) Climate and climate change over North America as simulated by the Canadian RCM. J Climate 19:3112–3132CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  41. Prinsenberg SJ (1980) Man-made changes in the freshwater input rates of Hudson and James Bays. Can J Fish Aquat Sci 37:1101–1110CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  42. Prinsenberg SJ (1986) The circulation pattern and current structure of Hudson Bay. In: Martini EP (ed) Canadian Inland Seas, Oceanogr Ser 44. Elsevier, New York, pp 187–203CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  43. Prinsenberg SJ (1991) Effects of hydro-electric projects on Hudson Bay’s marine and ice environments. James Bay Publication, James Bay, Series No. 2, pp 1–8Google Scholar
  44. Qian M, Jones C, Laprise R, Caya D (2008) The influences of NAO and Hudson Bay sea-ice on the climate of eastern Canada. Clim Dyn 31(2–3):169–182. doi: 10.1007/s00382-007-0343-9 Google Scholar
  45. Rothrock DA, Yu Y, Maykut GA (1999) Thinning of the Arctic sea-ice cover. Geophys Res Lett 26:3469–3472CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  46. Rudels B, Friedrich HJ, Hainbucher D, Lohmann G (1999) On the parameterisation of oceanic sensible heat loss to the atmosphere and to ice in an ice-covered mixed layer in winter. Deep Sea Res II 46:1385–1425CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  47. Sandwell DT, Walter H, Smith F (2000) Bathymetric estimation. In: Fu LL, Cazenave A (eds) Satellite altimetry and earth sciences: a handbook of techniques and applications. International Geophysics Series, vol 69. Academic Press, San Diego, USAGoogle Scholar
  48. Saucier FJ, Dionne J (1998) A 3-D coupled ice-ocean model applied to Hudson Bay, Canada: the seasonal cycle and time-dependent climate response to atmospheric forcing and runoff. J Geophys Res 103:27689–27705CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  49. Saucier FJ, Roy F, Gilbert D, Pellerin P, Ritchie H (2003) The formation and circulation processes of water masses in the Gulf of St. Lawrence. J Geophys Res 108:3269–3289CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  50. Saucier FJ, Senneville S, Prinsenberg SJ, Roy F, Smith G, Gachon P, Caya D, Laprise R (2004) Modelling the sea ice-ocean seasonal cycle in Hudson Bay, Foxe Basin and Hudson Strait, Canada. Clim Dyn 23:303–326CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  51. Semtner AJ Jr (1976) A model for the thermodynamic growth of sea ice in numerical investigations of climate. J Phys Oceanogr 6:379–389CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  52. Shoutilin SV, Makshtas AP, Ikeda M, Marchenko AV, Bekryaev RV (2005) Dynamic-thermodynamic sea ice model: ridging and its application to climate study and navigation. J Climate 18:3840–3855CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  53. Steele M, Boyd T (1999) Retreat of the cold halocline layer in the Arctic Ocean. J Geophys Res 103(C05):10419–10435Google Scholar
  54. Stroeve J, Holland MM, Meier W, Scambos T, Serreze M (2007) Arctic sea ice decline: faster than forecast. Geophys Res Lett 34:L09501. doi: 10.1029/2007GL029703 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  55. Stronach JA, Backhaus JO, Murty TS (1993) An update on the numerical simulation of oceanographic processes in the waters between Vancouver Island and the mainland: the GF8 model. Oceanogr Mar Biol Annu Rev 31:1–86Google Scholar
  56. Thorndike AS, Rothrock DA, Maykut GA, Colony R (1975) The thickness distribution of sea ice. J Geophys Res 80:4501–4513CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  57. Tivy A, Alt B, Howell S, Wilson K, Yackel J (2006) On the relationship between ENSO, the NAO, the PNA and anomalous spring ice cover in Hudson Bay. Proceedings of the ArcticNet Annual Conference, Banff, 13–16 December 2005Google Scholar
  58. Wang J, Mysak LA, Ingram RG (1994a) A numerical simulation of sea-ice cover in Hudson Bay. J Phys Oceanogr 24:2515–2533CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  59. Wang J, Mysak LA, Ingram RG (1994b) Interannual variability of sea-ice cover in Hudson Bay, Baffin Bay and the Labrador Sea. Atmos Ocean 32:421–447Google Scholar
  60. Wang J, Mysak LA, Ingram RG (1994c) A three-dimensional numerical simulation of Hudson Bay summer ocean circulation: topographic gyres, separations, and coastal jets. J Phys Oceanogr 24:2496–2514CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  61. Wu W, Barber D, Iacozza J, Mosscrop D (2006) Trends of spatial and temporal patterns of sea ice concentrations in Hudson Bay region over the period 1971 to 2004. Proceedings of the ArcticNet Annual Conference, Banff, 13–16 December 2005Google Scholar
  62. Zhang X, Vincent LA, Hogg WD, Niitsoo A (2000) Temperature and precipitation trends in Canada during the 20th century. Atmos Ocean 38:395–429Google Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag 2010

Authors and Affiliations

  • S. Joly
    • 1
  • S. Senneville
    • 1
    Email author
  • D. Caya
    • 2
  • F. J. Saucier
    • 1
  1. 1.Institut des Sciences de la Mer de RimouskiUniversité du Québec à RimouskiRimouskiCanada
  2. 2.Consortium OuranosTour Ouest, MontréalCanada

Personalised recommendations