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Climate Dynamics

, Volume 32, Issue 7–8, pp 1081–1095 | Cite as

Regional climate change experiments over southern South America. II: Climate change scenarios in the late twenty-first century

  • Mario N. Nuñez
  • Silvina A. Solman
  • Maria Fernanda Cabré
Article

Abstract

We present an analysis of climate change over southern South America as simulated by a regional climate model. The regional model MM5 was nested within time-slice global atmospheric model experiments conducted by the HadAM3H model. The simulations cover a 10-year period representing present-day climate (1981–1990) and two future scenarios for the SRESA2 and B2 emission scenarios for the period 2081–2090. There are a few quantitative differences between the two regional scenarios. The simulated changes are larger for the A2 than the B2 scenario, although with few qualitative differences. For the two regional scenarios, the warming in southern Brazil, Paraguay, Bolivia and northeastern Argentina is particularly large in spring. Over the western coast of South America both scenarios project a general decrease in precipitation. Both the A2 and B2 simulations show a general increase in precipitation in northern and central Argentina especially in summer and fall and a general decrease in precipitation in winter and spring. In fall the simulations agree on a general decrease in precipitation in southern Brazil. This reflects changes in the atmospheric circulation during winter and spring. Changes in mean sea level pressure show a cell of increasing pressure centered somewhere in the southern Atlantic Ocean and southern Pacific Ocean, mainly during summer and fall in the Atlantic and in spring in the Pacific. In relation to the pressure distribution in the control run, this indicates a southward extension of the summer mean Atlantic and Pacific subtropical highs.

Keywords

Regional climate modeling Southern South America Climate change scenarios 

Abbreviation

RCM

Regional climate model

AGCM

Atmospheric general circulation model

AOGCM

Atmospheric-ocean general circulation model

SLP

Sea level pressure

DJF

December-January-February

MAM

March-April-May

JJA

June-July-August

SON

September-October-November

Notes

Acknowledgments

This work was supported by the UBACYT Grant 01-X264, ANPCYT Project PICT2005 32194 and partially by EU CLARIS Grant. We would like to thank the Hadley Centre for providing the HadAM3H data. The authors wish to thank to anonymous reviewers whose insightful comments and suggestions led to improve the manuscript. We also thank Alfredo Rolla for his invaluable cooperation in running the model.

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Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag 2008

Authors and Affiliations

  • Mario N. Nuñez
    • 1
  • Silvina A. Solman
    • 1
  • Maria Fernanda Cabré
    • 2
  1. 1.Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera (CIMA-CONICET/UBA) DCAO (FCEyN-UBA), Ciudad Universitaria, Pabellón II, Piso 2Buenos AiresArgentina
  2. 2.Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera (CIMA-CONICET/UBA), Ciudad Universitaria, Pabellón II, Piso 2Buenos AiresArgentina

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