Advertisement

Climate Dynamics

, Volume 28, Issue 4, pp 409–423 | Cite as

Extreme midlatitude cyclones and their implications for precipitation and wind speed extremes in simulations of the Maunder Minimum versus present day conditions

  • C. C. RaibleEmail author
  • M. Yoshimori
  • T. F. Stocker
  • C. Casty
Article

Abstract

Extreme midlatitude cyclone characteristics, precipitation, wind speed events, their inter-relationships, and the connection to large-scale atmospheric patterns are investigated in simulations of a prolonged cold period, known as the Maunder Minimum from 1640 to 1715 and compared with today. An ensemble of six simulations for the Maunder Minimum as well as a control simulation for perpetual 1990 conditions are carried out with a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model, i.e., the Climate Community System Model (CCSM). The comparison of the simulations shows that in a climate state colder than today the occurrence of cyclones, the extreme events of precipitation and wind speed shift southward in all seasons in the North Atlantic and the North Pacific. The extremes of cyclone intensity increases significantly in winter in almost all regions, which is related to a stronger meridional temperature gradient and an increase in lower tropospheric baroclinicity. Extremes of cyclone intensity in subregions of the North Atlantic are related to extremes in precipitation and in wind speed during winter. Moreover, extremes of cyclone intensity are also connected to distinct large-scale atmospheric patterns for the different subregions, but these relationships vanish during summer. Analyzing the mean 1,000 hPa geopotential height change of the Maunder Minimum simulations compared with the control simulation, we find a similar pattern as the correlation pattern with the cyclone intensity index of the southern Europe cyclones. This illustrates that changes in the atmospheric high-frequency, i.e., the simulated southward shift of cyclones in the North Atlantic and the related increase of extreme precipitation and wind speed in particular in the Mediterranean in winter, are associated with large-scale atmospheric circulation changes.

Keywords

Wind Speed Cyclone North Atlantic Oscillation Index Maunder Minimum Cyclone Track 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.

Notes

Acknowledgments

We thank Guido Poliwoda for the historical references. This work is supported by the National Centre for Competence in Research (NCCR) on Climate funded by the Swiss National Science Foundation. Simulations are carried out at the Swiss National Computing Centre in Manno, Switzerland. CC is supported by the European Project entitled “Patterns of Climate Variability in the North Atlantic (PACLIVA, EVR1-2002-000413)”. This is IPRC contribution # 389. TFS is partially supported by the IPRC Visitor Program. ERA-40 reanalysis data were provided by European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (http://www.data.ecmwf.int/data/index.html).

References

  1. Arends F (1833) Physische Geschichte der Nordseeküste und deren Veränderungen durch Sturmfluthen seit der Cymbrischen Fluth bis jetzt. Emden, GermanyGoogle Scholar
  2. Beersma JJ, Rider KM, Komen GJ, Kaas E, Kharin V (1997) An analysis of extra-tropical storms in the North Atlantic region as simulated in a control and 2 × CO2 time-slice experiment with a high-resolution atmospheric model. Tellus 49:347–361CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  3. Bengtsson L, Hodges KI, Roeckner E (2006) Storm tracks and climate change. J Clim 19:3518–3543CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  4. Björck S, Clemmensen LB (2004) Aeolian sediment in raised bog deposits, Halland, SW Sweden: A new proxy record of Holocene winter storminess variation in southern Scandinavia. Holocene 14:677–688CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  5. Blender R, Schubert M (2000) Cyclone tracking in different spatial and temporal resolutions. Mon Wea Rev 128:377–384CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  6. Blender R, Fraedrich K, Lunkeit F (1997) Identification of cyclone-track regimes in the North Atlantic. Q J Roy Meteor Soc 123:727–741CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  7. Böning CW, Döscher R, Isemer HJ (1991) Monthly mean wind stress and Sverdrup transports in the North Atlantic: a comparison of Hellerman–Rosenstein and Isemer–Hasse Climatologies. J Phys Ocean 21:221–235CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  8. Bradley RS, Jones PD (1993) ‘Little Ice Age’ summer temperature variations: their nature and relevance to recent global warming. Holocene 3:367–376Google Scholar
  9. Bradley RS, Briffa KR, Cole J, Hughes MK, Osborn TJ (2003) The climate of the last millennium. In: Alverson K, Bradley RS, Pedersen TF (eds) Paleoclimate, global change, and future. Springer, Berlin Heidelberg New York, pp 105–141Google Scholar
  10. Briegleb BP, Bitz CM, Hunke EC, Lipscomb WH, Holland MM, Schramm JL, Moritz RE (2004) Scientific description of the sea ice component in the community climate system model, Version 3, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO.80307-3000, Tech. Report, 77ppGoogle Scholar
  11. Broecker WS (2000) Was a change in the thermohaline circulation responsible for Little Ice Age? Proc Nat Acad Sci USA 97:1339–1342CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  12. Casty C, Handorf D, Raible CC, Luterbacher J, Weisheimer A, Xoplaki E, González-Rouco JF, Dethloff K, Wanner H (2005a) Recurrent climate winter regimes in reconstructed and modelled 500 hPa geopotential height fields over the North Atlantic-European sector 1659–1990. Clim Dynam 24:809–822. DOI 10.1007/s00382-004-0496-8Google Scholar
  13. Casty C, Handorf D, Sempf M (2005b) Combined winter climate regimes over the North Atlantic/European sector 1766–2000. Geophys Res Lett 32. DOI 10.1029/2005GL022431Google Scholar
  14. Cook ER, D’Arrigo RD, Mann ME (2002) A well-verified, multiproxy reconstruction of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation index since A.D. 1400. J Clim 15:1754–1764CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  15. Crowley TJ (2000) Causes of climate change over the past 1000 years. Science 289:270–277CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  16. De Jong R, Björck S, Björkman L, Clemmensen LB (2006) Storminess variations during the last 6500 years as reconstructed from and ombrotrophic bog in Halland, SW Sweden. J Quat Science (in press)Google Scholar
  17. Eady ET (1949) Long waves and cyclone waves. Tellus 1:33–52CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  18. Esper J, Cook ER, Schweingruber FH (2002) Low-frequency signals in long tree-ring chronologies for reconstructing past temperature variability. Science 295:2250–2253CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  19. Fischer-Bruns I, von Storch H, González-Rouco JF, Zorita E (2005) Modelling the variability of midlatitude storm activity on decadal to century time scales. Clim Dyn 21. DOI 10.1007/s00382-005-0036-1Google Scholar
  20. González-Rouco FJ, von Storch H, Zorita E (2003) Deep soil temperature as a proxy for surface temperature in a coupled model simulation of the last thousand years. Geophys Res Lett 30. DOI 10.1029/2003GL018264Google Scholar
  21. Haigh JD (1994) The role of stratospheric ozone in modulating the solar radiative forcing of climate. Nature 370:544–546CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  22. Hendy EJ, Gagan MK, Alibert MT, McCulloch MT, Lough JM, Isdale PJ (2002) Abrupt decrease in tropical Pacific sea surface salinity at end of Little Ice Age. Science 295:1511–1514CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  23. Hurrell JW (1995) Decadal trends in the North Atlantic oscillation: regional temperatures and precipitation. Science 269:676-679CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  24. IPCC (2001) Climate change 2001: the scientific basis. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. Contribution of working group i to the third assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 881ppGoogle Scholar
  25. Jakubowski-Tiessen M (1992) Sturmflut 1717: die Bewältigung einer Naturkatastrophe in der Frühen Neuzeit. R. Oldenbourg, München, p 315Google Scholar
  26. Jones PD, Mann ME (2004) Climate over the past millennia Rev Geophys 42(RG2002). DOI 10.1029/2003RG000143Google Scholar
  27. Jones PD, Briffa KR, Barnett TP, Tett SFB (1998) High-resolution paleoclimatic records for the last millennium: interpretation, integration, and comparison with general circulation model control-run temperatures. Holocene 8:455–471CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  28. Katz RW, Brown BG (1992) Extreme events in a changing climate— variability is more important than averages. Clim Change 21:289–302CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  29. Kharin VV, Zwiers F (2000) Changes in extremes in an ensemble of transient climate simulations with a coupled atmosphere–ocean GCM. J Clim 13:3760–3788CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  30. Kharin VV, Zwiers F (2005) Estimating extremes in transient climate change simulations. J Clim 18:1156–1173CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  31. Kiehl JT, Gent PR (2004) The Community Climate System Model, version 2. J Clim 17:3666–3682CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  32. Knippert P, Ulbrich U, Speth P (2000) Changing cyclones and surface wind speed over the North Atlantic and Europe in a transient GHG experiment. Clim Res 15:109–122CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  33. Lean J, Beer J, Bradley RS (1995) Reconstruction of solar irradiance since 1600: implications for climate change. Geophys Res Lett 22:3195–3198CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  34. Leckebusch GC, Ulbrich U (2004) On the relationship between cyclones and extreme windstorm events over Europe under climate change. Global Planet Change 44:181–193CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  35. Lindzen RS, Farrell B (1980) A simple approximate result for the maximum growth rate of baroclinic instabilities. J Atmos Sci 37:1648–1654CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  36. Lunkeit F, Fraedrich K, Bauer SE (1998) Storm tracks in a warmer climate: sensitivity studies with a simplified global circulation model. Clim Dyn 14:813–826CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  37. Luterbacher J, Rickli R, Xoplaki E, Tinguely C, Beck C, Pfister C, Wanner H (2001) The late Maunder Minimum (1675–1715)—a key period for studying decadal scale climatic change in Europe. Clim Change 49:441–462CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  38. Luterbacher J, Xoplaki E, Dietrich D, Rickli R, Jacobeit J, Beck C, Gyalistras D, Schmutz C, Wanner H (2002) Reconstruction of sea level pressure fields over the Eastern North Atlantic and Europe back to 1500. Clim Dyn 18:545–561Google Scholar
  39. Mann ME, Bradley RS, Hughes MK (1999) Northern hemisphere temperatures during the past millennium: inferences, uncertainties, and limitations. Geophys Res Lett 26:759–762CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  40. Meehl GA, Zwiers F, Evans J, Knutson T, Mearns L, Whetton P (2000) Trends in extreme weather and climate events: issues related to modeling extremes in projections of future climate change. B Am Meteorol Soc 81:427–436CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  41. Pauling A, Luterbacher J, Casty C, Wanner H (2006) 500 years of gridded high-resolution precipitation reconstructions over Europe and the connection to large-scale circulation. Clim Dynam 26:387–405. DOI 10.1007/s00382-005-0090-8Google Scholar
  42. Raible CC, Blender R (2004) Midlatitude cyclonic variability in GCM-simulations with different ocean representations. Clim Dyn 22:239–248CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  43. Raible CC, Casty C, Luterbacher J, Pauling A, Esper J, Frank DC, Büntgens U, Roesch AC, Wild M, Tschuck P, Vidale PL, Schär C, Wanner H (2006) Climate variability—observations, reconstructions and model simulations. Clim Change (in press)Google Scholar
  44. Rind D, Shindell DT, Perlwitz J, Lerner J, Lonergan P, Lean J, MacLinden C(2004) The relative importance of solar and anthropogenic forcing of climate change between the Maunder Minimum and the present. J Clim 17:906–929CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  45. Schaeffer M, Selten FM, Opsteegh JD (2005) Shifts of means are not a proxy for changes in extreme winter temperature in climate projections. Clim Dyn 25:51–63CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  46. Schär C, Vidale PL, Lüthi D, Häberli C, Liniger MA, Appenzeller C (2004) The role of increasing temperature variability in European summer heatwaves. Nature 427:332–336CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  47. Shindell DT, Rind D, Balachandran N, Lean J, Lonergan P (1999) Solar cycle variability, ozone, and climate. Science 284:305–308CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  48. Shindell DT, Schmidt GA, Mann MA, Rind D, Waple A (2001) Solar forcing of regional climate change during the Maunder Minimum. Science 294:2149–2152CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  49. Sickmöller M, Blender R, Fraedrich K (2000) Observed winter cyclone tracks in the Northern Hemisphere in re-analysed ECMWF data. Q J R Meteorol Soc 126:591–620Google Scholar
  50. Simmons AJ, Gibson JK (2000) The ERA-40 project plan. Technical Report, ECMWF, Shinfield Park, Reading, 63ppGoogle Scholar
  51. Wajsowicz RC (2002) A modified Sverdrup model of the Atlantic and Caribbean circulation. J Phys Ocean 32:973–993CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  52. Yin JH (2005) A consistent poleward shift of storm tracks in simulations of 21st century. Geophys Res Lett 32. DOI 10.1029/2005GL023684Google Scholar
  53. Yoshimori M, Stocker TF, Raible CC, Renold M (2005) Externally-forced and internal variability in ensemble of climate simulations of the Maunder Minimum. J Clim 18:4253–4270CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  54. Yoshimori M, Raible CC, Stocker TF, Renold M (2006) On the interpretation of low-latitude hydrological proxy records on Maunder Minimum AOGCM simulations. Clim Dyn. DOI 1007/s00382-006-0144-6Google Scholar
  55. Zorita E, von Storch H, González-Rouco JF, Cubasch U, Luterbacher J, Fischer-Bruns I, Legutke S, Schleese U (2004) Climate evolution in the last five centuries simulated by an atmosphere-ocean model: global temperatures, North Atlantic Oscillation and the late Maunder Minimum. Meteorol Z 13:271–289CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag 2006

Authors and Affiliations

  • C. C. Raible
    • 1
    Email author
  • M. Yoshimori
    • 1
    • 2
  • T. F. Stocker
    • 1
    • 3
  • C. Casty
    • 1
  1. 1.Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics InstituteUniversity of BernBernSwitzerland
  2. 2.Center for Environmental PredictionRutgers UniversityNew BrunswickUSA
  3. 3.International Pacific Research Center, SOESTUniversity of Hawai’iHonoluluUSA

Personalised recommendations