Climate Dynamics

, Volume 26, Issue 2–3, pp 217–228 | Cite as

Twentieth century simulation of the southern hemisphere climate in coupled models. Part 1: large scale circulation variability

Article

Abstract

The ability of five, global coupled climate models to simulate important atmospheric circulation characteristics in the Southern Hemisphere for the period 1960–1999 is assessed. The circulation features examined are the Southern Hemisphere annular mode (SAM), the semi-annual oscillation (SAO) and the quasi-stationary zonal wave 3 (ZW3). The models assessed are the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate System Model Version 3 (CCSM3), the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation Mark 3, the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Model, the Goddard Institute for Space Studies Model ER (GISS-ER) and the UK Meteorological Office Hadley Center Coupled Model Version 3. The simulations were compared to the NCAR–NCEP reanalyses. The models simulate a SAO which differs spatially from the observed over the Pacific and Indian oceans. The amplitudes are too high over the southern ocean and too low over the midlatitudes. These differences are attributed to a circumpolar trough which is too deep and extends too far north, and to the inability of the models to simulate the middle to high latitude temperature gradient. The SAM is well-represented spatially by most models but there are important differences which may influence the flow over the Pacific and in the region extending from the Ross to Weddell Seas. The observed trend towards positive polarity in the SAM is apparent in the ensemble averages of the GISS-ER and CCSM3 simulations, suggesting that the trend is due to external forcing by changes in the concentration of ozone and greenhouse gases. ZW3 is well-represented by the models but the observed trend towards positive phases of ZW3 is not apparent in the simulations suggesting that the observed trend may be due to natural variability, not external forcing.

References

  1. Cai W, Whetton PH, Karoly DJ (2003) The response of the Antarctic Oscillation to increasing and stabilized atmospheric CO2. J Clim 16:1525–1538Google Scholar
  2. Fyfe JC, Boer GJ, Flato GM (1999) The Arctic and Antarctic oscillations and their projected changes under global warming. Geophys Res Lett 26:1601–1604CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  3. Gong D, Wang S (1999) Definition of the Antarctic oscillation index. Geophys Res Lett 26:459–462CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  4. Gordon HB, Rotstayn LD, McGregor MR, Dix MR, Kowalczyk EA, O’Farrell SP, Waterman LJ, Hirst AC, Wilson SG, Collier MA, Watterson IG, Elliot TI (2002) The CSIRO Mk3 Climate System Model. CSIRO Atmospheric Research Technical Paper no. 60, 134 ppGoogle Scholar
  5. Gordon C, Cooper C, Senior CA, Banks H, Gregory JM, Johns TC, Mitchell JFB, Wood RA (2000) The simulation of SST, sea ice extents and ocean heat transports in a version of the Hadley Centre coupled model without flux adjustments. Clim Dyn 16:147–168CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  6. Hines KM, Bromwich DM, Marshall GJ (2000) Artificial surface pressure trends in the NCAR–NCEP reanalysis over the Southern Ocean and Antarctica. J Clim 13:3940–3952CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  7. Holland MM, Raphael MN (2005) Twentieth century simulation of the Southern Hemisphere climate in coupled models. Part II: sea ice conditions and variability (this issue)Google Scholar
  8. Hurrell JW, van Loon H (1994) A modulation of the atnospheric annual cycle in the Southern Hemisphere. Tellus 46A:325–338Google Scholar
  9. K-1 model developers (2004) K-1 coupled model (MIROC) description, K-1 technical report, 1. In: Hasumi H, Emori S (eds) Center for Climate System Research, University of Tokyo, p 34Google Scholar
  10. Kalnay E et al (1996) The NCEP/NCAR 40-Year Reanalysis project. Bull Am Met Soc 77:437–472CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  11. Karoly DJ (1989) Southern Hemisphere circulation features associated with El Nino-Southern oscillation events. J Clim 2:1239–1251CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  12. Kidson JW (1988) Interannual variations in the Southern Hemisphere circulation. J Clim 1:1177–1198CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  13. Kidson JW (1999) Principal modes of Southern Hemisphere low-frequency variability obtained from NCEP/NCAR reanalyses. J Clim 12:2808–2830CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  14. Kiehl JT, Boville BA, Briegleb BP (1988) Response of a general circulation model to a prescribed Antarctic ozone hole. Nature 332:501–504CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  15. Large WG, van Loon H (1989) Large scale, low frequency variability of the 1979 FGGE surface buoy drifts and winds over the Southern Hemisphere. J Phys Oceanogr 19:216–232CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  16. Lefebvre W, Goosse H (2005) Influence of the Southern Annular Mode on the sea ice-ocean system: the role of the thermal and mechanical forcing. Ocean Science Discuss 2:299–329CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  17. Liu J, Curry JA, Martinson DG (2004) Interpretation of recent Antarctic sea ice variability. Geophys Res Lett 31 doi:10.1029/2003GL018732Google Scholar
  18. van Loon H (1967) The half-yearly oscillations in middle and high Southern latitudes and the coreless winter. J Atmos Sci 24:472–486CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  19. van Loon H, Rogers JC (1984) Interannual variations in the half-yearly cycle of pressure gradients and zonal winds at sea level on the Southern Hemisphere. Tellus 36A:76–96Google Scholar
  20. Marshall GJ (2003) Trends in the Southern annular mode from observations and reanalyses. J Clim 16:4134–4143CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  21. Meehl GA (1991) A re-examination of the mechanism of the semi-annual oscillation in the Southern Hemisphere. J Clim 4:911–926CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  22. Meehl GA, Hurrell JH, van Loon H (1998) A modulation of the mechanism of the semi-annual oscillation in the Southern Hemisphere. Tellus 50A:442–450CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  23. Mo KC, White GH (1985) Teleconnections in the Southern Hemisphere. Mon Wea Rev 113:22–37CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  24. Raphael MN (2004) A zonal wave 3 index for the Southern Hemisphere. Geophys Res Lett 31, doi:10.1029/2004GL020365Google Scholar
  25. Schmidt GA et al (2005) Present-day atmospheric simulations using GISS ModelE: comparison to in situ, satellite and reanalysis data. J Clim (accepted for publication)Google Scholar
  26. Simmonds I, Walland DJ (1998) Decadal and centennial variability of the southern semiannual oscillation simulated in the GFDL coupled GCM. Clim Dyn 14:45–53CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  27. Thompson DWJ, Solomon S (2002) Interpretation of recent Southern Hemisphere climate change. Science 296:895–899CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  28. Thompson DWJ, Wallace JM (2000) Annular modes in the extratropical circulation, I: month to month variability. J Clim 5:1000–1016CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  29. Trenberth KE (1980) Planetary waves at 500 mb in the Southern Hemisphere. Mon Wea Rev 108:1378–1389CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  30. Trenberth KE, Mo KC (1985) Blocking in the Southern Hemisphere. Mon Wea Rev 133:38–53CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  31. Trenberth KE, Large WG, Olson JG (1990) The mean annual cycle in global ocean wind stress. J Phys Oceanogr 20:1742–1760CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  32. Van Loon H (1991) A review of the surface climate of the Southern Hemisphere and some comparisons with the Northern Hemisphere. J Mar Syst 2:171–1994CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  33. Van Loon H, Jenne RL (1972) The zonal harmonic standing waves in the Southern Hemisphere. J Geophys Res 77:992–1003CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  34. Xu J-S, von Storch H, van Loon H (1990) The performance of four spectral GCMs in the Southern Hemisphere: the January and July climatology and the semiannual wave. J Clim 3:53–70CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag 2005

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.UCLA Department of GeographyLos AngelesUSA
  2. 2.National Center for Atmospheric ResearchBoulderUSA

Personalised recommendations