Advances in Atmospheric Sciences

, Volume 36, Issue 12, pp 1340–1354 | Cite as

Comparative Analysis of the Mechanisms of Intensified Summer Warming over Europe-West Asia and Northeast Asia since the Mid-1990s through a Process-based Decomposition Method

  • Xueqian Sun
  • Shuanglin LiEmail author
  • Bo Liu
Original Paper


Previous studies have found amplified warming over Europe-West Asia and Northeast Asia in summer since the mid-1990s relative to elsewhere on the Eurasian continent, but the cause of the amplification in these two regions remains unclear. In this study, we compared the individual contributions of influential factors for amplified warming over these two regions through a quantitative diagnostic analysis based on CFRAM (climate feedback-response analysis method). The changes in surface air temperature are decomposed into the partial changes due to radiative processes (including CO2 concentration, incident solar radiation at the top of the atmosphere, surface albedo, water vapor content, ozone concentration, and clouds) and non-radiative processes (including surface sensible heat flux, surface latent heat flux, and dynamical processes). Our results suggest that the enhanced warming over these two regions is primarily attributable to changes in the radiative processes, which contributed 0.62 and 0.98 K to the region-averaged warming over Europe-West Asia (1.00 K) and Northeast Asia (1.02 K), respectively. Among the radiative processes, the main drivers were clouds, CO2 concentration, and water vapor content. The cloud term alone contributed to the mean amplitude of warming by 0.40 and 0.85 K in Europe-West Asia and Northeast Asia, respectively. In comparison, the non-radiative processes made a much weaker contribution due to the combined impact of surface sensible heat flux, surface latent heat flux, and dynamical processes, accounting for only 0.38 K for the warming in Europe-West Asia and 0.05 K for the warming in Northeast Asia. The resemblance between the influential factors for the amplified warming in these two separate regions implies a common dynamical origin. Thus, this validates the possibility that they originate from the Silk Road pattern.

Key words

CFRAM (climate feedback-response analysis method) amplified summer warming radiative processes non-radiative processes 

摘 要

以前的研究发现, 自 20 世纪 90 年代中期以来, 欧洲-西亚和东北亚相对于欧亚大陆其他区域夏季增暖更为显著, 但增暖放大的原因尚不清楚. 本文基于气候反馈响应分析方法 (climate feedback–response analysis method, CFRAM), 定量诊断了不同影响因子对两个区域增暖的贡献. CFRAM 方法将地表气温变化分解为由辐射过程 (包括CO2浓度、 大气层顶入射太阳辐射、 地表反照率、 水汽含量、 O3浓度和云) 和非辐射过程(包括地表感热通量、 地表潜热通量和动力过程) 造成的温度变化分量. 结果表明:欧洲-西亚和东北亚的强增温主要归因于辐射过程的变化, 辐射过程对欧洲-西亚地表气温变化 (1.00K) 和东北亚地表气温变化 (1.02K) 的贡献分别为 0.62 和 0.98K. 云、 CO2 浓度和水汽含量是辐射过程的主要驱动因子. 其中, 云的变化对欧洲-西亚和东北亚增暖分别贡献了 0.40 和 0.85k. 由于地表感热通量、 地表潜热通量和动力过程的共同影响, 导致非辐射过程的总贡献较弱, 在欧洲-西亚和东北亚分别仅产生了 0.38 和 0.05k 的增暖. 影响地表温度变化的因子之间的相似性表明两个区域的增暖可能具有相同的动力起源. 因此, 进一步验证了欧洲-西亚和东北亚增暖均起源于丝绸之路遥相关的可能性.


气候反馈响应分析方法 夏季增暖放大 辐射过程 非辐射过程 


Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.



This work was jointly supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (Grant Nos. 2018YFA0606403 and 2015CB453202) and the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41790473 and 41421004).


  1. Cai, M., and J. H. Lu, 2009: A new framework for isolating individual feedback processes in coupled general circulation climate models. Part II: Method demonstrations and comparisons. Climate Dyn., 32, 887–900, Scholar
  2. Chen, G. S., and R. H. Huang, 2012: Excitation mechanisms of the teleconnection patterns affecting the July precipitation in Northwest China. J. Climate, 25, 7834–7851, Scholar
  3. Chen, H. S., F. D. Teng, W. X. Zhang, and H. Liao, 2017: Impacts of anomalous midlatitude cyclone activity over East Asia during summer on the decadal mode of East Asian summer monsoon and its possible mechanism. J. Climate, 30, 739–753, Scholar
  4. Chen, W., and R. Y. Lu, 2014: A decadal shift of summer surface air temperature over Northeast Asia around the mid-1990s. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 31, 735–742, Scholar
  5. Dee, D. P., and Coauthors, 2011: The ERA-interim reanalysis: Configuration and performance of the data assimilation system. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 137, 553–597, Scholar
  6. Deng, Y., T. W. Park, and M. Cai, 2013: Radiative and dynamical forcing of the surface and atmospheric temperature anomalies associated with the Northern annular mode. J. Climate, 26, 5124–5138, Scholar
  7. Ding, Q. H., and B. Wang, 2005: Circumglobal teleconnection in the Northern Hemisphere summer. J. Climate, 18, 3483–3505, Scholar
  8. Ding, Q. H., and B. Wang, 2007: Intraseasonal teleconnection between the summer Eurasian wave train and the Indian monsoon. J. Climate, 20(15), 3751–3767, Scholar
  9. Ding, Q. H., B. Wang, J. M. Wallace, and G. Branstator, 2011: Tropical-extratropical teleconnections in boreal summer: Observed interannual variability. J. Climate, 24, 1878–1896, Scholar
  10. Donat, M. G., A. L. Lowry, L. V. Alexander, P. A. O’Gorman, and N. Maher, 2016: More extreme precipitation in the world’s dry and wet regions. Nat. Clim. Change, 6, 508–513, Scholar
  11. Dong, B. W., R. T. Sutton, W. Chen, X. D. Liu, R. Y. Lu, and Y. Sun, 2016: Abrupt summer warming and changes in temperature extremes over Northeast Asia since the mid-1990s: Drivers and physical processes. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 33(9), 1005–1023, Scholar
  12. Dong, B. W., R. T. Sutton, and L. Shaffrey, 2017: Understanding the rapid summer warming and changes in temperature extremes since the mid-1990s over Western Europe. Climate Dyn., 48(5), 1537–1554, Scholar
  13. Enfield, D. B., A. M. Mestas-Nuñez, and P. J. Trimble, 2001: The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and its relation to rainfall and river flows in the continental U. S.. Geophys. Res. Lett., 28(10), 2077–2080, Scholar
  14. Enomoto, T., B. J. Hoskins, and Y. Matsuda, 2003: The formation mechanism of the Bonin high in August. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 129(587), 157–178, Scholar
  15. Fan, Y., and H. van den Dool, 2008: A global monthly land surface air temperature analysis for 1948-present. J. Geophys. Res., 113, D01103, Scholar
  16. Fu, Q., and K. N. Liou, 1992: On the correlated k-distribution method for radiative transfer in nonhomogeneous atmospheres. J. Atmos. Sci., 49, 2139–2156,<2139:OTCDMF>2.0.CO;2.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  17. Fu, Q., and K.-N. Liou, 1993: Parameterization of the radiative properties of cirrus clouds. J. Atmos. Sci., 50, 2008–2025,<2008:POTRPO>2.0.CO;2.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  18. Gan, T. Y., 1998: Hydroclimatic trends and possible climatic warming in the Canadian Prairies. Water Resour. Res., 34, 3009–3015, Scholar
  19. Gao, Q. X., Z. H. Ren, and Z. Y. Jiang, 1998: Research on radiation forcing of cloud. Research of Environmental Sciences, 11(1), 1–4, (in Chinese)Google Scholar
  20. Gelaro, R., and Coauthors, 2017: The modern-era retrospective analysis for research and applications, version 2 (MERRA-2). J. Climate, 30, 5419–5454, Scholar
  21. Greatbatch, R. J., X. G. Sun, and X. Q. Yang, 2013: Impact of variability in the Indian summer monsoon on the East Asian summer monsoon. Atmospheric Science Letters, 14, 14–19, Scholar
  22. Harris, I., P. D. Jones, T. J. Osborn, and D. H. Lister, 2014: Updated high-resolution grids of monthly climatic observations-the CRU TS3.10 dataset. International Journal of Climatology, 34(3), 623–642, Scholar
  23. Held, I. M., and B. J. Soden, 2006: Robust responses of the hydrological cycle to global warming. J. Climate, 19, 5686–5699, Scholar
  24. Hersbach, H., and D. Dee, 2016: ERA5 reanalysis is in production. ECMWF Newsletter, No. 147, ECMWF, Reading, United Kingdom, 7. [Available online at]
  25. Hirsch, R. M., J. R. Slack, and R. A. Smith, 1982: Techniques of trend analysis for monthly water quality data. Water Resour. Res., 18, 107–121, Scholar
  26. Hong, X. W., and R. Y. Lu, 2016: The meridional displacement of the summer Asian jet, Silk Road Pattern, and tropical SST anomalies. J. Climate, 29(10), 3753–3766, Scholar
  27. Hong, X. W., R. Y. Lu, and S. L. Li, 2017: Amplified summer warming in Europe-West Asia and Northeast Asia after the mid-1990s. Environmental Research Letters, 12(9), 094007, Scholar
  28. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 1995: Climate Change 1995: The Science of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group I to the Second Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 572 pp.Google Scholar
  29. Jaagus, J., 2006: Climatic changes in Estonia during the second half of the 20th century in relationship with changes in large-scale atmospheric circulation. Theor. Appl. Climatol., 83, 77–88, Scholar
  30. Kamae, Y., X. C. Li, S. P. Xie, and H. Ueda, 2017: Atlantic effects on recent decadal trends in global monsoon. Climate Dyn., 49, 3443–3455, Scholar
  31. Kaplan, A., M. A. Cane, Y. Kushnir, A. C. Clement, M. B. Blumenthal, and B. Rajagopalan, 1998: Analyses of global sea surface temperature 1856–1991. J. Geophys. Res., 103(C9), 18567–18589, Scholar
  32. Kosaka, Y., J. S. Chowdary, S. P. Xie, Y. M. Min, and J. Y. Lee, 2012: Limitations of seasonal predictability for summer climate over East Asia and the northwestern Pacific. J. Climate, 25, 7574–7589, Scholar
  33. Kumar, V., and S. K. Jain, 2010: Trends in seasonal and annual rainfall and rainy days in Kashmir Valley in the last century. Quaternary International, 212, 64–69, Scholar
  34. Lee, M. H., S. Lee, H. J. Song, and C. H. Ho, 2017: The recent increase in the occurrence of a boreal summer teleconnection and its relationship with temperature extremes. J. Climate, 30(18), 7493–7504, Scholar
  35. Levine, X. J., and T. Schneider, 2011: Response of the Hadley circulation to climate change in an aquaplanet GCM coupled to a simple representation of ocean heat transport. J. Atmos. Sci., 68, 769–783, Scholar
  36. Lin, H., 2009: Global extratropical response to diabatic heating variability of the Asian summer monsoon. J. Atmos. Sci., 66, 2697–2713, Scholar
  37. Lin, J. S., B. Wu, and T. J. Zhou, 2016: Is the interdecadal circumglobal teleconnection pattern excited by the Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation? Atmos. Ocean Sci. Lett., 9, 451–457, Scholar
  38. Lu, J. H., and M. Cai, 2009: A new framework for isolating individual feedback processes in coupled general circulation climate models. Part I: Formulation. Climate Dyn., 32, 873–885, Scholar
  39. Lu, R. Y., J. H. Oh, and B. J. Kim, 2002: A teleconnection pattern in upper-level meridional wind over the North African and Eurasian continent in summer. Tellus, 54(1), 44–55, Scholar
  40. Mann, H. B., 1945: Nonparametric tests against trend. Econometrica, 13(3), 245–259, Scholar
  41. Monerie, P. A., J. Robson, B. W. Dong, and N. Dunstone, 2018: A role of the atlantic ocean in predicting summer surface air temperature over north east Asia? Climate Dyn., 51(1–2), 473–491, Scholar
  42. Monerie, P. A., J. Robson, B. W. Dong, D. L. R. Hodson, and N. P. Klingaman, 2019: Effect of the Atlantic multidecadal variability on the global monsoon. Geophys. Res. Lett., 46, 1765–1775, Scholar
  43. Myhre, G., E. J. Highwood, K. P. Shine, and F. Stordal, 1998: New estimates of radiative forcing due to well mixed greenhouse gases. Geophys. Res. Lett., 25(14), 2715–2718, Scholar
  44. Park, T. W., Y. Deng, and M. Cai, 2012: Feedback attribution of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation-related atmospheric and surface temperature anomalies. J. Geophys. Res., 117, D23101, Scholar
  45. Park, W., and M. Latif, 2008: Multidecadal and multicentennial variability of the meridional overturning circulation. Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L22703, Scholar
  46. Power, S. B., and G. Kociuba, 2011: What caused the observed twentieth-century weakening of the walker circulation? J. Climate, 24, 6501–6514, Scholar
  47. Ramanathan, V., R. D. Cess, E. F. Harrison, P. Minnis, B. R. Barkstrom, E. Ahmad, and D. Hartmann, 1989: Cloud-radiative forcing and climate: Results from the earth radiation budget experiment. Science, 243(4887), 57–63, Scholar
  48. Si, D., and Y. Ding, 2016: Oceanic forcings of the interdecadal variability in East Asian summer rainfall. J. Climate, 29, 7633–7649, Scholar
  49. Stainforth, D. A., S. C. Chapman, and N. W. Watkins, 2013: Mapping climate change in European temperature distributions. Environmental Research Letters, 8(3), 034031, Scholar
  50. Sun, X. G., R. J. Greatbatch, W. Park, and M. Latif, 2010: Two major modes of variability of the East Asian summer monsoon. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 136(649), 829–841, Scholar
  51. Sun, X. Q., S. L. Li, X. W. Hong, and R. Y. Lu, 2019: Simulated influence of the atlantic Multidecadal oscillation on summer Eurasian Nonuniform warming since the mid-1990s. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 36, 811–822, Scholar
  52. Sutton, R. T., and B. W. Dong, 2012: Atlantic Ocean influence on a shift in European climate in the 1990s. Nature Geoscience, 5(11), 788–792, Scholar
  53. Vihma, T., 2014: Effects of arctic sea ice decline on weather and climate: A review. Surveys in Geophysics, 35(5), 1175–1214, Scholar
  54. Wang, H. Q., and G. X. Zhao, 1994: Cloud and radiation I: Cloud climatology and radiative effects of clouds. Scientia Atmospherica Sinica, 18, 910–932, (in Chinese)Google Scholar
  55. Wang, L., P. Q. Xu, W Chen, and Y. Liu, 2017: Interdecadal variations of the silk road pattern. J. Climate, 30, 9915–9932, Scholar
  56. Wang, S. J., 2009: Changing pattern of the temperature, precipitation and runoff in Chuanjiang Section of the Yangtze River. Resources Science, 31, 1142–1149, (in Chinese)Google Scholar
  57. Wang, Y. M., S. L. Li, and D. H. Luo, 2009: Seasonal response of Asian monsoonal climate to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. J. Geophys. Res., 114(D2), D02112, Scholar
  58. Willmott, C. J., and K. Matsuura, 2001: Terrestrial air temperature and precipitation: Monthly and annual time series (1950-1999). [Available online from]
  59. Wu, B., J. S. Lin, and T. J. Zhou, 2016: Interdecadal circumglobal teleconnection pattern during boreal summer. Atmospheric Science Letters, 17, 446–452, Scholar
  60. Wu, B., T. J. Zhou, C. Li, W. A. Müller, and J. S. Lin, 2019: Improved decadal prediction of Northern-Hemisphere summer land temperature. Climate Dyn., 53, 1357–1369, Scholar
  61. Wu, B. Y., R. H. Zhang, R. D’Arrigo, and J. Z. Su, 2013: On the relationship between winter sea ice and summer atmospheric circulation over Eurasia. J. Climate, 26, 5523–5536, Scholar
  62. Yu, L. J., S. Y. Zhong, J. A. Winkler, M. Y. Zhou, D. H. Lenschow, B. R. Li, X. Q. Wang, and Q. H. Yang, 2017: Possible connections of the opposite trends in Arctic and Antarctic sea-ice cover. Scientific Reports, 7, 45804, Scholar
  63. Yu, L. J., S. Y. Zhong, M. Y. Zhou, D. H. Lenschow, and B. Sun, 2019: Revisiting the linkages between the variability of atmospheric circulations and arctic melt-season sea ice cover at multiple time scales. J. Climate, 32, 1461–1482, Scholar
  64. Zhang, R., and T. L. Delworth, 2007: Impact of the Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation on North Pacific climate variability. Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L23708, Scholar
  65. Zhu, C. W., B. Wang, W. H. Qian, and B. Zhang, 2012: Recent weakening of northern East Asian summer monsoon: A possible response to global warming. Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L09701, Scholar
  66. Zhu, Y. L., H. J. Wang, W. Zhou, and J. H. Ma, 2011: Recent changes in the summer precipitation pattern in East China and the background circulation. Climate Dyn., 36, 1463–1473, Scholar

Copyright information

© Institute of Atmospheric Physics/Chinese Academy of Sciences, and Science Press and Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2019

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Climate Change Research Center (CCRC), and Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre, Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina
  2. 2.Department of Atmospheric ScienceChina University of GeosciencesWuhanChina
  3. 3.College of Earth and Planetary ScienceUniversity of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina

Personalised recommendations