Advances in Atmospheric Sciences

, Volume 36, Issue 3, pp 253–260 | Cite as

Predictability of South China Sea Summer Monsoon Onset

  • Gill M. MartinEmail author
  • Amulya Chevuturi
  • Ruth E. Comer
  • Nick J. Dunstone
  • Adam A. Scaife
  • Daquan Zhang
Original Paper


Predicting monsoon onset is crucial for agriculture and socioeconomic planning in countries where millions rely on the timely arrival of monsoon rains for their livelihoods. In this study we demonstrate useful skill in predicting year-to-year variations in South China Sea summer monsoon onset at up to a three-month lead time using the GloSea5 seasonal forecasting system. The main source of predictability comes from skillful prediction of Pacific sea surface temperatures associated with El Niño and La Niña. The South China Sea summer monsoon onset is a known indicator of the broadscale seasonal transition that represents the first stage of the onset of the Asian summer monsoon as a whole. Subsequent development of rainfall across East Asia is influenced by subseasonal variability and synoptic events that reduce predictability, but interannual variability in the broadscale monsoon onset for East Asian summer monsoon still provides potentially useful information for users about possible delays or early occurrence of the onset of rainfall over East Asia.

Key words

SCSSM South China Sea summer monsoon EASM East Asian summer monsoon 




SCSSM 南海夏季风 EASM 东亚夏季风 


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This work and its contributors (GM, AC, RC, ND and AS) were supported by the UK–China Research & Innovation Partnership Fund through the Met Office Climate Science for Service Partnership (CSSP) China as part of the Newton Fund. DZ was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41605078).


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Copyright information

© Chinese National Committee for International Association of Meteorology and Atmospheric Sciences, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Science Press and Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2019

Authors and Affiliations

  • Gill M. Martin
    • 1
    Email author
  • Amulya Chevuturi
    • 2
  • Ruth E. Comer
    • 1
  • Nick J. Dunstone
    • 1
  • Adam A. Scaife
    • 1
    • 3
  • Daquan Zhang
    • 4
  1. 1.Met Office Hadley Centre, Met OfficeExeterUK
  2. 2.NCAS-Climate and Department of MeteorologyUniversity of ReadingReadingUK
  3. 3.College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical SciencesExeter UniversityExeterUK
  4. 4.Laboratory for Climate Studies, National Climate CenterChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijingChina

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