Predictability of South China Sea Summer Monsoon Onset
Predicting monsoon onset is crucial for agriculture and socioeconomic planning in countries where millions rely on the timely arrival of monsoon rains for their livelihoods. In this study we demonstrate useful skill in predicting year-to-year variations in South China Sea summer monsoon onset at up to a three-month lead time using the GloSea5 seasonal forecasting system. The main source of predictability comes from skillful prediction of Pacific sea surface temperatures associated with El Niño and La Niña. The South China Sea summer monsoon onset is a known indicator of the broadscale seasonal transition that represents the first stage of the onset of the Asian summer monsoon as a whole. Subsequent development of rainfall across East Asia is influenced by subseasonal variability and synoptic events that reduce predictability, but interannual variability in the broadscale monsoon onset for East Asian summer monsoon still provides potentially useful information for users about possible delays or early occurrence of the onset of rainfall over East Asia.
Key wordsSCSSM South China Sea summer monsoon EASM East Asian summer monsoon
关键词SCSSM 南海夏季风 EASM 东亚夏季风
Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.
This work and its contributors (GM, AC, RC, ND and AS) were supported by the UK–China Research & Innovation Partnership Fund through the Met Office Climate Science for Service Partnership (CSSP) China as part of the Newton Fund. DZ was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41605078).
- Gao, H., Y. K. Tan, and J. J. Liu, 2001: Definition of 40-year onset date of South China Sea Summer Monsoon. Journal of Nanjing Institute of Meteorology, 24, 379–383, https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1674-7097.2001.03.012. (in Chinese with English abstract)Google Scholar
- Lee, S. S., B. Wang, D. E. Waliser, J. M. Neena, and J.-Y. Lee, 2015: Predictability and prediction skill of the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation in the Intraseasonal Variability Hindcast Experiment. Climate Dyn., 45, 2123–2135, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2461-5.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Li, H., S. P. He, K. Fan, and H. J. Wang, 2018: Relationship between the onset date of the Meiyu and the South Asian anticyclone in April and the related mechanisms. Climate Dyn., https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4131-5.Google Scholar
- Li, K. P., W. D. Yu, T. Li, V. S. N. Murty, S. Khokiattiwong, T. R. Adi, and S. Budi, 2013: Structures and mechanisms of the first-branch northward-propagating intraseasonal oscillation over the tropical Indian Ocean. Climate Dyn., 40, 1707–1720, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1492-z.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Luo, Y. L., H. Wang, R. H. Zhang, W. M. Qian, and Z. Z. Luo, 2013: Comparison of rainfall characteristics and convective properties of monsoon precipitation systems over south China and the Yangtze and Huai River basin. J. Climate, 26, 110–132, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00100.1.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Rayner, N. A., D. E. Parker, E. B. Horton, C. K. Folland, L. V. Alexander, D. P. Rowell, E. C. Kent, and A. Kaplan, 2003: Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century. J. Geophys. Res., 108, 4407, https://doi.org/10.1029/2002JD002670.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Tao, S.-Y., and L.-X. Chen, 1987: Review of recent research on the East Asian summer monsoon in China. Monsoon Meteorology, C.-P. Chang and T. N. Krishnamurti, Eds., Oxford University Press, 60–92.Google Scholar
- Zhu, Z. W., and J. H. He, 2013: The vortex over Bay of Bengal and its relationship with the outbreak of South China Sea summer monsoon. Journal of Tropical Meteorology, 29, 915–923. (in Chinese with English abstract)Google Scholar