Characteristics and Preliminary Causes of Tropical Cyclone Extreme Rainfall Events over Hainan Island
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The characteristics of tropical cyclone (TC) extreme rainfall events over Hainan Island from 1969 to 2014 are analyzed from the viewpoint of the TC maximum daily rainfall (TMDR) using daily station precipitation data from the Meteorological Information Center of the China Meteorological Administration, TC best-track data from the Shanghai Typhoon Institute, and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. The frequencies of the TMDR reaching 50, 100 and 250 mm show a decreasing trend [−0.7 (10 yr)−1], a weak decreasing trend [−0.2 (10 yr)−1] and a weak increasing trend [0.1 (10 yr)−1], respectively. For seasonal variations, the TMDR of all intensity grades mainly occurs from July to October, with the frequencies of TMDR - 50 mm and - 100 mm peaking in September and the frequency of TMDR - 250 mm [TC extreme rainstorm (TCER) events] peaking in August and September. The western region (Changjiang) of the Island is always the rainfall center, independent of the intensity or frequencies of different intensity grades. The causes of TCERs are also explored and the results show that topography plays a key role in the characteristics of the rainfall events. TCERs are easily induced on the windward slopes of Wuzhi Mountain, with the coordination of TC tracks and TC wind structure. A slower speed of movement, a stronger TC intensity and a farther westward track are all conducive to extreme rainfall events. A weaker northwestern Pacific subtropical high is likely to make the 500-hPa steering flow weaker and results in slower TC movement, whereas a stronger South China Sea summer monsoon can carry a higher moisture flux. These two environmental factors are both favorable for TCERs.
KeywordsHainan Island tropical cyclones extreme rainfall events characteristics causes
利用中国气象局国家气象信息中心的台站日降水资料、上海台风所的热带气旋最佳路径数据集和NCEP/NCAR再分析数据,从热带气旋(Tropical Cyclone, 简称TC)最大日降水(TC Maximum Daily Rainfall, 简称TMDR)的角度, 探讨了1969-2014年海南岛TC极端降水的特征. 三种强度级别极端降水(TMDR≥50 mm、≥100mm 和≥250 mm)事件的频数分别呈现减小趋势[−0.7 (10 yr)−1]、弱减少趋势[−0.2 (10 yr)−1]和弱增加趋势[0.1 (10 yr)−1]. 季节变化上, 不同强度级别事件均主要出现在7-10月. 其中, TMDR ≥50 mm 和 ≥100 mm的事件9月发生最多, 而TMDR ≥250 mm [TC extreme rainstorm, 简称TCER]的事件在8月和9月平分秋色. 不论是从降水强度还是从不同强度级别极端降水的频数来看, 海南岛西部地区(昌江)总是强降水中心. 本文进一步探讨了TCERs的形成原因. 结果表明, 地形对TCERs的空间特征的形成起到了关键性的作用. 在TC路径和风场结构的配合下, TCERs容易发生在五指山的迎风坡. 较慢的TC移动速度、较强的TC强度和偏西的TC路径均有利于产生极端降水事件. 弱的西太平洋副热带高压导致引导TC移动的气流偏弱, 从而使TC移动偏慢. 南海夏季风偏强使输送到降水区的水汽通量偏强. 这两个环境因子均有利于形成TCERs.
关键词海南岛 热带气旋 极端降水事件 特征 原因
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This research was jointly supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41375056), the National Science-Technology Support Plan Project (Grant No. 2013BAK05B03), the Hainan Meteorological Service Research Project (Grant No. HNQXQN201402), the China Meteorological Administration Forecaster Special Project (Grant No. CMAYBY2015-058) and the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41675042).
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