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Cloud radiative effects and changes simulated by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models

Abstract

Using 32 CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) models, this study examines the veracity in the simulation of cloud amount and their radiative effects (CREs) in the historical run driven by observed external radiative forcing for 1850–2005, and their future changes in the RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway) 4.5 scenario runs for 2006–2100. Validation metrics for the historical run are designed to examine the accuracy in the representation of spatial patterns for climatological mean, and annual and interannual variations of clouds and CREs. The models show large spread in the simulation of cloud amounts, specifically in the low cloud amount. The observed relationship between cloud amount and the controlling large-scale environment are also reproduced diversely by various models. Based on the validation metrics, four models—ACCESS1.0, ACCESS1.3, HadGEM2-CC, and HadGEM2-ES—are selected as best models, and the average of the four models performs more skillfully than the multimodel ensemble average.

All models project global-mean SST warming at the increase of the greenhouse gases, but the magnitude varies across the simulations between 1 and 2 K, which is largely attributable to the difference in the change of cloud amount and distribution. The models that simulate more SST warming show a greater increase in the net CRE due to reduced low cloud and increased incoming shortwave radiation, particularly over the regions of marine boundary layer in the subtropics. Selected best-performing models project a significant reduction in global-mean cloud amount of about −0.99% K−1 and net radiative warming of 0.46 W m−2 K−1, suggesting a role of positive feedback to global warming.

摘要

本项研究使用32个CMIP5模式结果研究了云量及云辐射效应模拟的准确性,模式结果包括由辐射外强迫观测数据驱动的1850-2005历史试验以及未来中等强迫情景(RCP4.5)下2006-2100时段的变化.研究针对历史试验设计了评估指标,以此考察模式对于云及云辐射效应的气候平均态,年变化和年际变化的模拟准确性.研究结果表明:各个模式模拟的云量差异很大,尤其是低云量; 观测中云量与决定云量的大尺度环境场之间的关系在各个模式也有不同的表现.基于研究所得评估指标,选择了4个性能优异的模式,即ACCESS1.0, ACCESS1.3, HadGEM2-CC和HadGEM2-ES,它们的模拟技巧明显好于多模式集合平均结果.在温室气体增加的情景下,所有的模式均预测全球平均海表面温度会增加,但增幅并不相同,在1-2K之间变动,这主要是因为各个模式模拟的云量及其分布有所不同.海表面温度增暖幅度大的模式所模拟的净云辐射效应增加也更大,这是由于这些模式模拟的低云更少而入射海表的短波辐射更多,此现象在副热带海洋边界层区域表现得更加明显.所选的4个性能最好模式的预估结果显示:全球平均云量和净云辐射效应分别有近−0.99% K−1和0.46 W m−2 K−1的显著减少,这说明云的效应对全球变暖有正反馈作用.

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Acknowledgements

The authors thank Joel NORRIS for providing the adjusted ISCCP data. The CMIP5 data were obtained from the data archive (http://cmip-pcmdi.llnl.gob/cmip5/index.html). This research was supported by the APEC Climate Center. ML and DK were supported by the UNIST research fund (Grant No. 1.09006.01). Additional support was provided by a grant (Grant No. 14AWMP-B082564-01) from the Advanced Water Management Research Program funded by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport of the Korean government.

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Correspondence to Myong-In Lee.

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Shin, S., Kim, O., Kim, D. et al. Cloud radiative effects and changes simulated by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models. Adv. Atmos. Sci. 34, 859–876 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-017-6089-3

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Key words

  • cloud radiative effects
  • cloud feedback
  • climate change
  • CMIP5

关键词

  • 云辐射效应
  • 云反馈
  • 气候变化
  • 第5次耦合模式比较计划(CMIP5)