Geo-Marine Letters

, Volume 25, Issue 2–3, pp 196–203 | Cite as

An application of a Markov-chain model of shore erosion for describing the dynamics of sediment flux

  • V. Ostroumov
  • V. Rachold
  • A. Vasiliev
  • V. Sorokovikov


Acquisition of coastline retreat rate time sequences (RRTS) is an important component of Arctic coastal monitoring. These data can be used not only to estimate sediment input into the sea during a fixed time period, but also to dynamically simulate sediment flux intensity. The RRTS were investigated at the Marre-Sale (Kara Sea) and Malii Chukochii Cape (East Siberian Sea) key sites. Statistical analysis demonstrated that the RRTS possess Markov characteristic. This allowed coastline dynamics to be described using a Markov-chain model. A model is discussed that combines Markov characteristic and information about the composition and structure of the permafrost sediments to describe sediment flux dynamics.


Simulated Sequence Erosion Intensity Transient Probability Coastal Monitoring Shore Erosion 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.



The authors would like to thank Dr. Stas Gubin, Dr. David Gilichinsky, Dr. Misha Grigoriev and Dr. Stanislav Ogorodov who kindly furnished the coastal monitoring data for testing of the model. Special thanks go to Dr. Pavel Grabarnik and Hugues Lantuit for helpful discussions on the Markov modeling technique and on the application of stochastic models for the processing of coastal monitoring data. This work has been supported by the International Association for the Promotion of Co-operation with Scientists from the New Independent States of the former Soviet Union, Grant INTAS 01–2329.


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Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag 2005

Authors and Affiliations

  • V. Ostroumov
    • 1
  • V. Rachold
    • 2
  • A. Vasiliev
    • 3
  • V. Sorokovikov
    • 1
  1. 1.Institute of Physicochamical and Biological Problems of Soil Science RASPushchino, MoscowRussia
  2. 2.Research Unit PotsdamAlfred Wegener InstitutePotsdamGermany
  3. 3.Earth Cryosphere Institute SB RASMoscowRussia

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