Expectation of a uniform random variable with uniform observation errors after selection of the highest observations
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In selection processes of a random variable with random observation errors, the crucial variable is the conditional expectation of the target variable given the sum of the observations. An example is the selection of the most talented young researchers for tenure track. This paper derives an explicit expression for this conditional expectation for the case that both the target variable and the observation errors have a uniform, but different, distribution.
KeywordsUniform distribution Selection Conditional expectation Observation error Research career
Mathematics Subject Classification (2000)62E15
I would like to thank Ludo Waltman of CWTS and an anonymous referee for comments that improved the presentation.
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