Abstract
Purpose
Accurate life expectancy prediction is essential in decision-making concerning treatment of clinically localized prostate cancer (PCa). Nomogram predictions are more precise and reproducible than clinician’s estimations. The most accurate nomogram addressing 10-year life expectancy in PCa patients has not been externally validated to date. Therefore, we aimed to evaluate the performance of this nomogram in a contemporary external cohort.
Patients and methods
For this, we enrolled all consecutive patients, who underwent radical prostatectomy at a single institution between 2005 and 2007. Age at surgery and Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) were assessed. PCa-related deaths and patients under 55 years were excluded as indicated by the nomogram. The prediction of 10-year life expectancy was calculated according to the nomogram and compared to actual survival data. Calibration and discrimination were assessed using calibration plots.
Results
Overall, 1597 patients were evaluated, with a median age of 64 years (range 55–78 years) at surgery and a median follow-up of 134.4 months (range 0.1–161.7 months). Median CCI was 0 (range 0–10). At 10 years, 134 patients (8.4%) had died of other causes than PCa. The nomogram showed moderate discrimination capacities on receiver-operator characteristic analysis (c-index: 0.64). On calibration curves, the nomogram underestimated the actual life expectancy.
Conclusion
The performance accuracy of this prediction model was moderate and underestimated 10-year life expectancy of contemporary PCa patients. In conclusion, prediction of life expectancy remains challenging with a continued need for more precise tools.
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Protocol/project development: MG and SK. Data collection or management: DP and SK. Data analysis: SK and ZT. Manuscript writing/editing: SK, DP, HH, DT, PK, and MG.
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Knipper, S., Pröwrock, D., Tian, Z. et al. External validation of a nomogram for the prediction of 10-year life expectancy in candidates for radical prostatectomy. World J Urol 37, 2649–2655 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00345-019-02706-w
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00345-019-02706-w