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Rheumatology International

, Volume 33, Issue 12, pp 2967–2973 | Cite as

The value of pattern capillary changes and antibodies to predict the development of systemic sclerosis in patients with primary Raynaud’s phenomenon

  • Slavica R. Pavlov-Dolijanovic
  • Nemanja S. Damjanov
  • Nada Z. Vujasinovic Stupar
  • Snezana Baltic
  • Dragan D. Babic
Original Article

Abstract

The aim of this study is to assess the prognostic value of major provisional criteria for the development of systemic sclerosis (SSc) in primary Raynaud’s phenomenon (RP) patients. We retrospectively studied the chart of 497 patients with primary RP in whom anticentromere (ACA) and antitopoisomerase I (ATA) antibodies tests and a capillary reading were available. Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, positive likelihood ratios (LHR+), negative likelihood ratios (LHR−), odds ratio (OR), and area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC) of those criteria were assessed to predict the development of SSc. During the average follow-up of 2.3 ± 1.9 years, 159 (32 %) patients evolved to SSc, 245 (49.3 %) evolved to other connective tissue diseases, and 93 (18.7 %) patients did not progress. The SSc pattern predicted SSc satisfactorily (LHR+ 4.12, LHR− 0.07, OR 63, AUC 0.819; P < 0.001). ACA were not significantly associated with the development of SSc (LHR+ 1.19, LHR− 0.9, OR 1.32, AUC 0.538, P = 0.156). ATA were significantly associated with the development of SSc (LHR+ 9.32, LHR− 0.67, OR 15.13, AUC 0.777; P < 0.001). Both SSc pattern and ACA or ATA were significantly associated with the development of SSc (LHR+ 2.98, LHR− 0.70, OR 4.2, AUC 0.674; P < 0.001 vs. LHR+ 16, LHR− 0.68, OR 24, AUC 0.819; P < 0.001, respectively). SSc pattern or ATA as independent risk factors, as well as following two parameters together (SSc pattern and ATA or SSc pattern and ACA) were good predictors for the development of SSc.

Keywords

Systemic sclerosis Capillaroscopy Scleroderma pattern Anticentromere antibodies Antitopoisomerase I antibodies Classification criteria 

Notes

Conflict of interest

The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest.

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Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2013

Authors and Affiliations

  • Slavica R. Pavlov-Dolijanovic
    • 1
  • Nemanja S. Damjanov
    • 2
  • Nada Z. Vujasinovic Stupar
    • 2
  • Snezana Baltic
    • 1
  • Dragan D. Babic
    • 3
  1. 1.Institute of Rheumatology BelgradeBelgradeSerbia
  2. 2.Institute of Rheumatology, Faculty of MedicineUniversity of BelgradeBelgradeSerbia
  3. 3.Institute of Medical Statistics and Informatics, Faculty of MedicineUniversity of BelgradeBelgradeSerbia

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