The effect of population heterogeneities upon spread of infection Article First Online: 02 September 2012 Received: 16 January 2012 Revised: 25 July 2012 DOI :
10.1007/s00285-012-0578-x

Cite this article as: Clancy, D. & Pearce, C.J. J. Math. Biol. (2013) 67: 963. doi:10.1007/s00285-012-0578-x Abstract It has often been observed that population heterogeneities can lead to outbreaks of infection being less frequent and less severe than homogeneous population models would suggest. We address this issue by comparing a model incorporating various forms of heterogeneity with a homogenised model matched according to the value of the basic reproduction number \(R_0\) . We mainly focus upon heterogeneity in individuals’ infectivity and susceptibility, though with some allowance also for heterogeneous patterns of mixing. The measures of infectious spread we consider are (i) the probability of a major outbreak; (ii) the mean outbreak size; (iii) the mean endemic prevalence level; and (iv) the persistence time. For each measure, we establish conditions under which heterogeneity leads to a reduction in infectious spread. We also demonstrate that if such conditions are not satisfied, the reverse may occur. As well as comparison with a homogeneous population, we investigate comparisons between two heterogeneous populations of differing degrees of heterogeneity. All of our results are derived under the assumption that the susceptible population is sufficiently large.

Keywords Basic reproduction number SIR epidemic SIS epidemic Outbreak size Endemic prevalence Fade-out of infection

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CrossRef Google Scholar Authors and Affiliations 1. Department of Mathematical Sciences University of Liverpool Liverpool UK