Projections for Achieving the Lancet Commission Recommended Surgical Rate of 5000 Operations per 100,000 Population by Region-Specific Surgical Rate Estimates
- 222 Downloads
We previously identified a range of 4344–5028 annual operations per 100,000 people to be related to desirable health outcomes. From this and other evidence, the Lancet Commission on Global Surgery recommends a minimum rate of 5000 operations per 100,000 people. We evaluate rates of growth and estimate the time it will take to reach this minimum surgical rate threshold.
We aggregated country-level surgical rate estimates from 2004 to 2012 into the twenty-one Global Burden of Disease (GBD) regions. We calculated mean rates of surgery proportional to population size for each year and assessed the rate of growth over time. We then extrapolated the time it will take each region to reach a surgical rate of 5000 operations per 100,000 population based on linear rates of change.
All but two regions experienced growth in their surgical rates during the past 8 years. Fourteen regions did not meet the recommended threshold in 2012. If surgical capacity continues to grow at current rates, seven regions will not meet the threshold by 2035. Eastern Sub-Saharan Africa will not reach the recommended threshold until 2124.
The rates of growth in surgical service delivery are exceedingly variable. At current rates of surgical and population growth, 6.2 billion people (73 % of the world’s population) will be living in countries below the minimum recommended rate of surgical care in 2035. A strategy for strengthening surgical capacity is essential if these targets are to be met in a timely fashion as part of the integrated health system development.
KeywordsCapita Health Expenditure Desirable Health Outcome World Bank Development Indicator Lancet Commission Latin America Region
Conflicts of interest
We declare that we have no conflicts of interest.
- 2.Meara JG, Hagander L (2014) Leather. AJM Surgery and global health: A Lancet Commission The Lancet 383:12–13Google Scholar
- 3.Debas H, Gosselin R, McCord C et al (2006) Surgery. In: Jamison DT, Breman JG, Measham AR et al (eds) Disease control priorities in developing countries. Disease control priorities project, 2nd edn. The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/The World Bank, WashingtonGoogle Scholar
- 7.Weiser TG, Haynes AB, Molina G et al (2015) Estimate of the global volume of surgery in 2012: an assessment supporting improved health outcomes. The Lancet. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(15)60806-6
- 10.Esquivel MM, Molina G, Uribe-Leitz T et al (2015) Proposed minimum rates of surgery to support desirable health outcomes: an observational study based on three strategies. World J Surg. doi: 10.1007/s00268-015-3092-7
- 11.The World Bank. World Development Indicators. World Bank, 2014. http://data.worldbank.org/indicator. Accessed 28 Nov 2014
- 12.Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation. Global burden of diseases, injuries and risk factors study operations manual. http://www.globalburden.org/gbdops.html. Accessed 5 Dec 2014
- 13.Weiser TG, Uribe-Leitz T, Fu R et al (2015) Variability in mortality following caeserean delivery, appendectomy, and groin hernia repair in low and middle income countries: implications for expanding surgical services. The Lancet. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(15)60829-7
- 14.World Health Report 2010. (2010) Health systems financing: the path to universal coverage. World Health Organization, GenevaGoogle Scholar