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World Journal of Surgery

, 35:2275 | Cite as

External Validation of Two Nomograms for Predicting Patient Survival After Hepatic Resection for Metastatic Colorectal Cancer

  • Yuji TakakuraEmail author
  • Masazumi Okajima
  • Yukihide Kanemitsu
  • Shintaro Kuroda
  • Hiroyuki Egi
  • Takao Hinoi
  • Hirotaka Tashiro
  • Hideki Ohdan
Article

Abstract

Background

Two nomograms are available for predicting patient survival after hepatic resection for metastatic colorectal cancer (CRC). However, they have not been externally validated using other databases, and so their universal applicability has not been established. We aimed to examine the validity of these nomograms for predicting patient survival after hepatic resection for metastatic CRC in different institutions.

Methods

We analyzed the cases of 113 patients who underwent hepatic resection for metastatic CRC at Hiroshima University Hospital between 1995 and 2006. In this patient set, we assessed the predictive value of the Kattan nomogram of the Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center (MSKCC) (United States) and the Kanemitsu nomogram from the Aichi Cancer Center (Japan). The concordance index was used as an accuracy measure for comparing these two nomograms. The predictive accuracy of these nomograms was compared with that of conventional predictive models.

Results

The 3-, 5-, and 10-year overall survival rates in our cohort were 66.3%, 52.4%, and 42.7%, respectively. The concordance indexes of the pre- and postoperative Kanemitsu nomogram and that of the Kattan nomogram were 0.70, 0.69, and 0.68, respectively. These values were higher than those obtained using other models for hepatic metastatic CRC, including the clinical risk score of the MSKCC and the grading system of the Japanese Society for Cancer of the Colon and Rectum.

Conclusions

The high predictive accuracy of both nomograms shows that these predictive tools can be used in different institutions. Patient counseling and adjuvant therapy decision-making should benefit from use of these nomograms.

Keywords

Hepatic Resection Colorectal Liver Metastasis Extrahepatic Disease Clinical Risk Score Abdominal Compute Tomography Scan 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.

Notes

Conflict of interest

The authors have no commercial associations that might pose a conflict of interest in connection with the submitted article.

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Copyright information

© Société Internationale de Chirurgie 2011

Authors and Affiliations

  • Yuji Takakura
    • 1
    Email author
  • Masazumi Okajima
    • 2
  • Yukihide Kanemitsu
    • 3
  • Shintaro Kuroda
    • 1
  • Hiroyuki Egi
    • 1
  • Takao Hinoi
    • 1
  • Hirotaka Tashiro
    • 1
  • Hideki Ohdan
    • 1
  1. 1.Department of Surgery, Division of Frontier Medical Science, Programs for Biomedical Research, Graduate School of Biomedical ScienceHiroshima UniversityHiroshimaJapan
  2. 2.Department of Endoscopic Surgery and Surgical Science, Graduate School of Biomedical ScienceHiroshima UniversityHiroshimaJapan
  3. 3.Department of Gastroenterological SurgeryAichi Cancer Center HospitalNagoyaJapan

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