Advertisement

Environmental Management

, Volume 52, Issue 1, pp 196–208 | Cite as

A Simple Model that Identifies Potential Effects of Sea-Level Rise on Estuarine and Estuary-Ecotone Habitat Locations for Salmonids in Oregon, USA

  • Rebecca FlitcroftEmail author
  • Kelly Burnett
  • Kelly Christiansen
Article

Abstract

Diadromous aquatic species that cross a diverse range of habitats (including marine, estuarine, and freshwater) face different effects of climate change in each environment. One such group of species is the anadromous Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.). Studies of the potential effects of climate change on salmonids have focused on both marine and freshwater environments. Access to a variety of estuarine habitat has been shown to enhance juvenile life-history diversity, thereby contributing to the resilience of many salmonid species. Our study is focused on the effect of sea-level rise on the availability, complexity, and distribution of estuarine, and low-freshwater habitat for Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha), steelhead (anadromous O. mykiss), and coho salmon (O. kisutch) along the Oregon Coast under future climate change scenarios. Using LiDAR, we modeled the geomorphologies of five Oregon estuaries and estimated a contour associated with the current mean high tide. Contour intervals at 1- and 2-m increments above the current mean high tide were generated, and changes in the estuary morphology were assessed. Because our analysis relied on digital data, we compared three types of digital data in one estuary to assess the utility of different data sets in predicting the changes in estuary shape. For each salmonid species, changes in the amount and complexity of estuarine edge habitats varied by estuary. The simple modeling approach we applied can also be used to identify areas that may be most amenable to pre-emptive restoration actions to mitigate or enhance salmonid habitat under future climatic conditions.

Keywords

Salmonids  Digital elevation models  LiDAR  Sea-level rise  Estuary  Habitat 

Notes

Acknowledgments

The analysis presented in this study was funded by the USDA Forest Service, PNW Research Station. We would like to thank the Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife for their work documenting salmonid habitat throughout Oregon. We would also like to thank the LiDAR Consortium that organized and flew the Oregon Coastal Province. We thank the Siuslaw National Forest for making the low-tide LiDAR of the Salmon River Estuary available to us for this work. Additionally, we thank Deborah Reusser of the USGS for her thoughtful comments regarding the effects of SLR on estuarine habitats. The comments from four anonymous reviewers significantly improved the manuscript.

References

  1. Beamish RJ, Mahnken C (2001) A critical size and period hypothesis to explain natural regulation of salmon abundance and the linkage to climate and climate change. Prog Oceanogr 49:423–437CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  2. Beechie T, Imaki H, Greene J, Wade A, Wu H, Pess G, Roni P, Kimball J, Stanford J, Kiffney P, Mantua N (2012) Restoring salmon habitat for a changing climate. River Res Appl. doi: 10.1002/rra.2590 Google Scholar
  3. Beyer HL (2004) Hawth’s analysis tools for ArcGIS. Hawthstools, Spatial Ecology LLC, Marshfield, WI. http://www.spatialecology.com/htools. Accessed 10 Apr 2013
  4. Bindoff NL, Willebrand J, Artale V, Cazenave A, Gregory J, Gulev S, Hanawa K, Le Quéré C, Levitus S, Nojiri Y, Shum CK, Talley LD, Unnikrishnan A (2007) Observations: oceanic climate change and sea level. In: Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, Chen Z, Marquis M, Avery KB, Tignor M, Miller HL (eds) Climate change 2007: the physical science basis. Contribution of working group I to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 387–432Google Scholar
  5. Bisson PA, Dunham JB, Reeves GH (2009) Freshwater ecosystems and resilience of Pacific salmon: habitat management based on natural variability. Ecol Soc 14:45Google Scholar
  6. Bond MH, Hayes SA, Hanson CV, MacFarlane RB (2008) Marine survival of steelhead (Oncorhynchus mykiss) enhanced by a seasonally closed estuary. Can J Fish Aquat Sci 65:2242–2252CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  7. Bottom DL, Jones KK, Cornwell TJ, Gray A, Simenstad CA (2005a) Patterns of Chinook salmon migration and residency in the Salmon River estuary (Oregon). Estuarine Coast Shelf Sci 64:79–93CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  8. Bottom DL, Simenstad CA, Burke J, Baptista AM, Jay DA, Jones KK, Casillas E, Schiewe MH (2005b) Salmon at river’s end: the role of the estuary in the decline and recovery of Columbia River salmon. US Department of Commerce, NOAA Technical Memorandum, NMFS-NWFSC-68Google Scholar
  9. Bottom DL, Jones KK, Simenstad CA, Smith CL (2009) Reconnecting social and ecological resilience in salmon ecosystems. Ecol Soc 14:5Google Scholar
  10. Callaway JC, Nyman JA, DeLaune RD (1996) Sediment accretion in coastal wetlands: a review and a simulation model of processes. Curr Top Wetl Biogeochem 2:2–23Google Scholar
  11. Committee on Sea Level Rise in California, Oregon, and Washington; Board on Earth Sciences and Resources; Ocean Studies Board; Division on Earth and Life Studies; National Research Council, prepublication (2012) National Academies Press, ISBN 978-0-309-25594-3, p 250Google Scholar
  12. Craft C, Clough J, Ehman J, Joye S, Park R, Pennings S, Guo H, Machmuller M (2009) Forecasting the effects of accelerated sea-level rise on tidal marsh ecosystem services. Front Ecol Environ 7:73–78CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  13. Crozier LG, Hendry AP, Lawson PW, Quinn TP, Mantua NJ, Battin J, Shaw RG, Huey RB (2008) Potential responses to climate change in organisms with complex life histories: evolution and plasticity in Pacific salmon. Evol Appl 1:252–270CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  14. StreamNet GIS Data (2003) Metadata for Pacific Northwest coho salmon fish distribution spatial dataset. StreamNet, Portland, Oregon, USA. http://www.streamnet.org. Accessed 10 Apr 2013
  15. Eaton JG, Scheller RM (1996) Effects of climate warming on fish thermal habitat in streams of the United States. Limnol Oceanog 41:1109–1115CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  16. ESRI (2008) ArcMap version 9.3.1. Redlands, CaliforniaGoogle Scholar
  17. Fletcher CH, Van Pelt JE, Brush GS, Sherman J (1993) Tidal wetland record of Holocene sea-level movements and climate history. Palaeogeogr Palaeoclimatol Palaeoecol 102:177–213CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  18. Flitcroft RL, Burnett KM, Reeves GH, Ganio LM (2012) Do network relationships matter? Comparing network and instream habitat variables to explain densities of juvenile coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch) in mid-coastal Oregon, USA. Aquat Conserv Mar Freshw Ecosyst 22:288–302CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  19. Folke C, Carpenter S, Walker B, Scheffer M, Elmqvist T, Gunderson L, Holling CS (2004) Regime shifts, resilience and biodiversity in ecosystem management. Annu Rev Ecol Evol Syst 35:557–581CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  20. Gill SK, Schultz JR (eds) (2001) Tidal datums and their application NOAA special publication NOS Co-OPS 1. Silver Springs, MAGoogle Scholar
  21. Gleason MG, Newkirk S, Merrifield MS, Howard J, Cox R, Webb M, Koepcke J, Stranko B, Taylor B, Beck MW, Fuller R, Dye P, Vander Schaaf D, Carter J (2011) A conservation assessment of West Coast (USA) estuaries. The Nature Conservancy, ArlingtonGoogle Scholar
  22. Glick P, Clough J, Nunley B (2007) Sea-level rise and coastal habitats in the Pacific Northwest: an analysis for puget sound, Southwestern Washington, and Northwestern Oregon. In: National Wildlife Association Report, USA, 2007Google Scholar
  23. Gray A, Simenstad CA, Bottom DL, Cornwell TJ (2002) Contrasting functional performance of juvenile salmonid habitat in recovering wetlands of the Salmon River estuary, Oregon, USA. Restor Ecol 10:514–526CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  24. Groot C, Margolis L (eds) (1991) Pacific salmon life histories. University of British Columbia Press, VancouverGoogle Scholar
  25. Hayes SA, Bond MH, Hanson CV, Freund EV (2008) Steelhead growth in a small central California watershed: upstream and estuarine rearing patterns. Trans Am Fish Soc 137:114–128CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  26. Healey M (2011) The cumulative impacts of climate change on Frasier River sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) and implications for management. Can J Fish Aquat Sci 68:718–737CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  27. Hering DK, Bottom DL, Prentice EF, Jones KK, Fleming IA (2010) Tidal movements and residency of subyearling Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) in an Oregon salt marsh channel. Can J Fish Aquat Sci 67:524–533CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  28. Irish JL, Lillycrop WJ (1999) Scanning laser mapping of the coastal zone: the SHOALS system. J Photogramm Rem Sensing 54:123–129CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  29. Irme SR, Bogaert J (2004) The fractal dimension as a measure of the quality of habitats. Acta Biotheor 52:41–56CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  30. Johnson GE, Dieferderfer HL, Thom RM, Roegner GC, Ebberts BD, Skalski JR, Borde AB, Dawley EM, Coleman AM, Woodruff DL, Breithaupt SA, Cameron AS, Corbett CA, Donley EE, Jay DA, Ke Y, Leffler KE, McNeil CB, Studebaker CA, Tagestad JD (2012) Evaluation of cumulative ecosystem response to restoration projects in the lower Columbia River and Estuary, 2010. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, RichlandCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  31. Jones DS, Fleming IA, McLaughlin LK, Jones KK (2008) Feeding ecology of cutthroat trout in the Salmon River Estuary, Oregon. In: Connolly PJ, Williams TH, Gresswell RE (eds) The 2005 coastal cutthroat trout symposium: status, management, biology, and conservation. Oregon Chapter, Am Fish Soc, Portland, pp 144–151Google Scholar
  32. Kennedy VS (1990) Anticipated effects of climate change on estuarine and coastal fisheries. Fisheries 15:16–24CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  33. Koski KV (2009) The fate of coho salmon nomads: the story of an estuarine-rearing strategy promoting resilience. Ecol Soc 14:4Google Scholar
  34. Levy DA, Northcote TG (1982) Juvenile salmon residency in a marsh area of the Fraser River estuary. Can J Fish Aquat Sci 39:270–276CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  35. Lichatowich J (1999) Salmon without rivers a history of the Pacific salmon crisis. Island Press, CovetoGoogle Scholar
  36. Magnusson A, Hilborn R (2003) Estuarine influence on survival rates of coho (Oncorhynchus kisutch) and Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) released from hatcheries on the U.S. Pacific Coast Estuaries 26:1094–1103CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  37. Mantua NJ, Hare SR, Zhang Y, Wallace JM, Francis RC (1997) A Pacific interdecadal climate oscillation with impacts on salmon production. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 78:1069–1079CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  38. Mantua N, Tohver I, Hamlet A (2010) Climate change impacts on streamflow extremes and summertime stream temperature and their possible consequences for freshwater salmon habitat in Washington state. Climatic Change 102:187–223CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  39. Martins EG, Hinch SG, Patterson DA, Hague MJ, Cookes SJ, Miller KM, LaPointe MF, English KK, Farrell AP (2011) Effects of river temperature and climate warming on stock-specific survival of adult migrating Fraser River sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka). Global Change Biol 17:99–114CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  40. McCormick SD, Saunders RL (1987) Preparatory physiological adaptations for marine life of salmonids: osmoregulation, growth and metabolism. Am Fish Soc Symp 1:211–229Google Scholar
  41. Mcleod E, Poulter B, Hinkel J, Reyes E, Salm R (2010) Sea-level rise impact models and environmental conservation: a review of models and their applications. Ocean Coast Manag 53:507–517CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  42. Miller BA, Sadro S (2003) Residence time and seasonal movements of juvenile coho salmon in the ecotone and lower estuary of Winchester Creek, South Slough, Oregon. Trans Am Fish Soc 132:546–559CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  43. Montgomery DR, Beamer EM, Pess GR, Quinn TP (1999) Channel type and salmonid spawning distribution and abundance. Can J Fish Aquat Sci 56:377–387CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  44. Morris JT, Sundareshwar PV, Nietch CT, Kjerfve B, Cahoon DR (2002) Responses of coastal wetlands to rising sea level. Ecology 83:2869–2877CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  45. Mote PW, Salathé EP Jr (2010) Future climate in the Pacific Northwest. Climatic Change 102:29–50CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  46. Olff H, DeLeeuw J, Bakker JP, Platerink RJ, Van Wijnen HJ (1997) Vegetation succession and herbivory in a salt marsh: changes induced by sea level rise and silt deposition along an elevational gradient. J Ecol 85:799–814CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  47. Oregon Estuary Plan Book (1987) Department of land conservation and development. Salem, OregonGoogle Scholar
  48. Pfeffer WT, Harper JT, O’Neel S (2008) Kinematic constraints on glacier contributions to 21st-century sea-level rise. Science 321:1340–1343CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  49. Reed D (1995) The response of coastal marshes to sea-level rise: survival or submergence? Earth Surf Process Landforms 20:39–48CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  50. Reeves GH, Benda LE, Burnett KM, Bisson PA, Sedell JR (1995) A disturbance-based ecosystem approach to maintaining and restoring freshwater habitats of evolutionarily significant units of anadromous salmonids in the Pacific Northwest. Am Fish Soc Symp 17:334–349Google Scholar
  51. Register Federal (2011) Listing endangered and threatened Species: threatened status for the Oregon Coast Coho Salmon Evolutionarily Significant Unit. Fed Regist 76:35755–35770Google Scholar
  52. Reimers PE (1973) The length of residence of juvenile fall Chinook salmon in Sixes River. Oregon Res Rep Fish Comm Oregon 4:1–42Google Scholar
  53. Reusch AS, Torgersen CE, Lawler JJ, Olden JD, Peterson EE, Volk CJ, Lawrence DJ (2012) Projected climate-induced habitat loss for salmonids in the John Day River network, Oregon, U.S.A. Conservation Biol 26:873–882CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  54. Simenstad CA, Cordell JR (2000) Ecological assessment criteria for restoring anadromous salmonid habitat in Pacific Northwest estuaries. Ecolog Eng 15:283–302CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  55. State of Oregon Division of State Lands (1989) Heads of tide for coastal streams in Oregon. Oregon Department of State Lands. Salem, OregonGoogle Scholar
  56. USGS (1985) Quadrangle number 45123-A8-TF-024. NeskowinGoogle Scholar
  57. Vermeer M, Rahmstorf S (2009) Global sea level linked to global temperature. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 106:21527–21532CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  58. Volk EC, Bottom DL, Jones KK, Simenstad CA (2010) Reconstructing juvenile Chinook salmon life history in the Salmon River Estuary, Oregon, using otolith microchemistry and microstructure. Trans Am Fish Soc 139:535–549CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  59. Waples RS, Beechie T, Pess GR (2009) Evolutionary history, habitat disturbance regimes, and anthropogenic changes: what do these mean for resilience of Pacific salmon populations? Ecol Soc 14:3Google Scholar
  60. Wenger SJ, Isaak DJ, Luce CH, Neville HM, Fausch KD, Dunham JB, Dauwalter DC, Young MK, Elsner MM, Rieman BE, Hamlet AF, Williams JE (2011) Flow regime, temperature, and biotic interactions drive differential declines of trout species under climate change. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 108:14175–14180CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  61. McKean J, Nagel D, Tonina D, Bailey P, Wright CW, Bohn C, Hayegandhi A (2009) Remote sensing of channels and riparian zones with a narrow-beam aquatic-terrestrial LIDAR. Remote Sens 1(4):1065–1096CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media New York (outside the USA) 2013

Authors and Affiliations

  • Rebecca Flitcroft
    • 1
    Email author
  • Kelly Burnett
    • 1
  • Kelly Christiansen
    • 1
  1. 1.Pacific Northwest Research StationUSDA Forest ServiceCorvallisUSA

Personalised recommendations