Environmental Management

, Volume 49, Issue 1, pp 151–162 | Cite as

A Dynamic Simulation Model of Land-Use, Population, and Rural Livelihoods in the Central Rift Valley of Ethiopia

Article
First Online:
Received:
Accepted:

Abstract

The dynamic interactions between society and land resources have to be taken into account when planning and managing natural resources. A computer model, using STELLA software, was developed through active participation of purposively selected farm households from different wealth groups, age groups and gender within a rural community and some members of Kebelle council. The aim of the modeling was to study the perceived changes in land-use, population and livelihoods over the next 30 years and to improve our understanding of the interactions among them. The modeling output is characterized by rapid population growth, declining farm size and household incomes, deteriorating woody vegetation cover and worsening land degradation if current conditions remain. However, through integrated intervention strategies (including forest increase, micro-finance, family planning, health and education) the woody vegetation cover is likely to increase in the landscape, population growth is likely to slow down and households’ income is likely to improve. A validation assessment of the simulation model based on historical data on land-use and population from 1973 to 2006 showed that the model is relatively robust. We conclude that as a supporting tool, the simulation model can contribute to the decision making process.

Keywords

Forest increase Household income Land-use Land degradation STELLA software 
This is a preview of subscription content, log in to check access.

Notes

Acknowledgments

The authors are thankful to Professor Bruce M. Campbell and Dr. Neil Collier for their helpful professional support and Neil Cory editing the paper. We would like to thank the farmers and field-guides for their valuable participation and time. Special thanks go to Wondo Genet College of Forestry and Natural Resources and the Swedish International Development Agency (Sida) for financing the study.

References

  1. Adams WM, Aveling R, Brockington D, Dickson B, Elliott J, Hutton J, Roe D, Vira B, Wolmer W (2004) Biodiversity conservation and the eradication of poverty. Science 306:1146–1149CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  2. Alexandratos N (2005) Countries with rapid population growth and resource constraints: issues of food, agriculture, and development. Population and Development Review 31:237–258CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  3. Amsalu A, de Graaff J (2006) Farmers’ views of soil erosion problems and their conservation knowledge at Beressa watershed, Central highlands of Ethiopia. Agriculture and Human Values 23:99–108CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  4. Argaw M (2005) Forest conversion, soil degradation, farmers’ perception nexus: implications for sustainable land use in the south-west of Ethiopia. PhD Thesis, University of BonnGoogle Scholar
  5. Bishaw B (2001) Deforestation and land degradation in the Ethiopian highlands: a strategy for physical recovery. Northeast African Studies 8:7–25CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  6. Bogale A, Taeb M, Endo M (2006) Land ownership and conflicts over the use of resources: implication for household vulnerability in eastern Ethiopia. Ecological Economics 58:134–145CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  7. Campbell BM, Sayer J, Cowling R, Kassa H, Knight A, Sandker M, Suwarno A (2008) The role of participatory modelling in landscape approaches to reconcile conservation and development, IUCN and CIFORGoogle Scholar
  8. Carr DL, Suter L, Barbieri A (2005) Population dynamics and tropical deforestation: state of the debate and conceptual challenges. Population & Environment 27:89–113CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  9. Chan K, Pringle R, Ranganathan J, Boggs C, Chan Y, Ehrlich P, Haff P, Heller N, Al-Khafaji K, Macmynowski DP (2007) When agendas collide: human welfare and biological conservation. Conservation Biology 21:59–68CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  10. Costanza R, Voinov A (2001) Modeling ecological and economic systems with STELLA: part III. Ecological Modelling 143:1–7CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  11. Crewett W, Bogale A, Korf B (2008) Land tenure in Ethiopia: continuity and change, shifting rulers, and the quest for state control. CAPRi Working Paper 91. International Food Policy Research Institute, WashingtonGoogle Scholar
  12. Deininger K, Ayalew D, Holden S, Zevenbergen J (2008) Rural land certification in Ethiopia: process, initial impact, and implications for other African countries. World Development 36:1786–1812CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  13. Dessie G, Christiansson C (2008) Forest decline and its causes in the South-Central Rift Valley of Ethiopia: human impact over a one hundred year perspective. Ambio 37:263–271CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  14. Doerr HM (1996) Stella ten years later: a review of the literature. International Journal of Computers for Mathematical Learning 1:201–224CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  15. Ellis F (2000) Rural livelihoods and diversity in developing countries. Oxford University Press, OxfordGoogle Scholar
  16. Ellis F, Allison E (2004) Livelihood diversification and natural resource access. Livelihood Support Programme Working Paper 9. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United NationsGoogle Scholar
  17. Ezra M (2001) Ecological degradation, rural poverty, and migration in Ethiopia: a contextual analysis. Policy Research Division Working Paper no. 149. Population Council, New YorkGoogle Scholar
  18. Feoli E, Vuerich LG, Zerihun W (2002) Evaluation of environmental degradation in northern Ethiopia using GIS to integrate vegetation, geomorphological, erosion and socio-economic factors. Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment 91:313–325CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  19. Garedew E, Sandewall M, Söderberg U, Campbell B (2009) Land-use and Land-cover dynamics in the Central Rift Valley of Ethiopia. Environmental Management 44:683–694CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  20. Grau HR, Gasparri NI, Aidew TM (2008) Balancing food production and nature conservation in the Neotropical dry forests of northern Argentina. Global Change Biology 14:985–997CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  21. Haile S (2004) Population, development, and environment in Ethiopia. ECSP Report Issue 10Google Scholar
  22. Hans H, Kebede T, Gete Z (2005) The implications of changes in population, land use, and land management for surface runoff in the upper Nile Basin area of Ethiopia. Mountain Research and Development 25:147–154CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  23. Hartemink AE, Veldkamp T, Bai Z (2008) Land cover change and soil fertility decline in tropical regions. Turkish Journal of Agriculture and Forestry 32:195–213Google Scholar
  24. Helldén U (2008) A coupled human-environment model for desertification simulation and impact studies. Global and Planetary Change 64:158–168CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  25. High Performance Systems Inc (1996) STELLA software technical documentationGoogle Scholar
  26. Hutton J, Adams WM, Murombedzi JC (2005) Back to the barriers? Changing narratives in biodiversity conservation. Forum for Development Studies 2:341–370CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  27. Jayne TS, Yamano T, Weber MT, Tschirley D, Benfica R, Chapoto A, Zulu B (2003) Smallholder income and land distribution in Africa: implications for poverty reduction strategies. Food Policy 28:253–275CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  28. Jha S, Bawa KS (2006) Population growth, human development, and deforestation in biodiversity hotspots. Conservation Biology 20:906–912CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  29. Kassa H, Campbell B, Sandewall M, Kebede M, Tesfaye Y, Dessie G, Seifu A, Tadesse M, Garedew E, Sandewall K (2009) Building future scenarios and uncovering persisting challenges of participatory forest management in Chilimo forest, Central Ethiopia. Journal of Environmental Management 90:1004–1013CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  30. Kirwan BE, McMillan M (2007) Food aid and poverty. American Journal of Agricultural Economics 89:1152–1160CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  31. Lamb D, Erskine PD, Parrotta JA (2005) Restoration of degraded tropicat forest landscapes. Science 310:1628–1632CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  32. Lambin EF, Geist HJ, Lepers E (2003) Dynamics of land-use and land-cover change in Tropical regions. Annual Review of Environment and Resources 28:205–241CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  33. Mahmud Y, Mekonnen A, Kassie M, Pender J (2005) Cost of Land Degradation in Ethiopia: a critical review of past studies, EEPFE/EFPRIGoogle Scholar
  34. Mengistu T, Teketay D, Hultén H, Yemshaw Y (2005) The role of communities in closed area management in Ethiopia. Mountain Research and Development 25:44–50CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  35. MoFED (2007) Ethiopia: building on progress: a plan for accelerated and sustained development to end poverty (PASDEP). Annual Progress Report 2006/07, Ministry of Finance and Economic Development (MoFED), Addis AbabaGoogle Scholar
  36. Nyssen J, Poesen J, Moeyersons J, Deckers J, Haile M, Lang A (2004) Human impact on the environment in the Ethiopian and Eritrean highlands—a state of the art. Earth-Science Reviews 64:273–320CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  37. Nyssen J, Poesen J, Deckers J (2009) Land degradation and soil and water conservation in tropical highlands. Soil & Tillage Research 103:197–202CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  38. Robbins P, McSweeney K, Waite T, Rice J (2006) Even conservation rules are made to be broken: implementation for biodiversity. Environmental Management 37:162–169CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  39. Romero C, Andrade G (2004) Internation conservation organizations and the fate of local tropical conservation initiatives. Conservation Biology 18:578–580CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  40. Sanderson S, Redford K (2003) Contested relationships between biodiversity conservation and poverty alleviation. Oryx 37:389–390CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  41. Sandewall M, Nilsson NE (2001) The area production model: a tool and concept for sustainable land-use and forest-resource management. Journal of Environmental Management 62:415–427CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  42. Sayer JA, Campbell BM (2004) The science of sustainable development: local livelihoods and the global environment. Cambridge University Press, CambridgeGoogle Scholar
  43. Sayer J, Campbell B, Petheram L, Aldrich M, Perez M, Endamana D, Dongmo Z-L, Defo L, Mariki S, Doggart N, Burgess N (2007) Assessing environment and development outcomes in conservation landscapes. Biodiversity and Conservation 16:2677–2694CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  44. Segele ZT, Lamb PJ (2005) Characterization and variability of Kiremt rainy season over Ethiopia. Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics 89:153–180CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  45. Singh S (2008) Social challenges to integrating conservation and development: the case of wildlife use in Laos. Society and Natural resources 21:952–955CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  46. Stéphenne N, Lambin EF (2001) A dynamic simulation model of land-use changes in Sudano-sahelian countries of Africa (SALU). Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment 85:145–161CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  47. Sunderland T, Ehringhaus C, Campbell B (2008) Conservation and development in tropical forest landscapes: a time to face the trade-offs? Environmental Conservation 34:276–279Google Scholar
  48. Taddese G (2001) Land degradation: a challenge to Ethiopia. Environmental Management 27:815–824CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  49. Tegenu T (2003) Socio-economic and environmental effects of age transition in Ethiopia, 1950-2000. Institute for Future Studies Stockholm. Paper presented at the first international conference on the Ethiopian economy, Addis AbabaGoogle Scholar
  50. Teketay D (2001) Deforestation, wood famine, and environmental degradation in Ethiopia’s highland ecosystems: urgent need for action. Northeast African Studies 8:53–76CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  51. UNFCCC (2007) Climate change: impacts, vulnerabilities and adaptation in developing countries United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), Bonn, Germany.Google Scholar
  52. United Nations Population Division (2009) Population division of the department of economic and social affairs of the United Nations Secretariat, World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision. http://esa.un.org/unpp. Accessed 13 August 2009.
  53. Verdoodt A, Mureithi SM, Ye L, Ranst EV (2009) Chronosequence analysis of two enclosure management strategies in degraded rangeland of semi-arid Kenya. Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment 129:332–339CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media, LLC 2011

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Department of Forest Resource ManagementSwedish University of Agricultural SciencesUmeaSweden
  2. 2.School of Forestry, Wondo Genet College of Forestry & Natural ResourcesHawasa UniversityShashemeneEthiopia

Personalised recommendations